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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather

I will definitely add the UK as long as someone with the data from weathermodels can post the map/message it to me as I have no access to it. I will go ahead and add the RAP to the list and get the GEFS in a few ready to post for when the EPS comes out.

Based on the meteocentre maps the UK comes out to 2-5mm which would be .08 to .19" of qpf. Maybe someone with better maps can post a definitive number but that would be how I interpret the ones I posted.
 
Turns out I have an active read out from dupage maps, which is nice. For example, the pivotal weather maps showed me 0.05 or so for the 12z RAP, but the dupage maps show a whopping 0.29 on the active read out. I will update all the numbers with the dupage readout for the free models as the tidbits/pivotal maps may not be too good for this experiment.
 
This is in millimeters and the conversion isn't impossible, but hopefully someone can get me the weathermodels one. 1 jumping up to 2.5+ is a wide range to try to figure on that.

Yeah hopefully so but if not I came up with a range of .08" to .19", could probably round this to the .10 to .15" range to be consistent with what the other models show.
 
Yeah hopefully so but if not I came up with a range of .08" to .19", could probably round this to the .10 to .15" range to be consistent with what the other models show.

The active readout from dupage show the following from the modeling they provide (as you can see there are some differences versus the other sources):

12z Model Suite Precipitation Accumulation Forecast for KCAE from College of Dupage active readout:
GEFS: 0.15-0.17 (large area)
RAP: 0.29
GFS: 0.21
FV3: 0.16
NAM 32KM: 0.12
NAM 3KM: 0.06
CMC: 0.19
HRRR: 0.08

Dupage is missing the ICON and RGEM model sadly...
The mean of all of this comes out to 0.16, which may not be far off from what the UKMET is showing and FV3 forecasts to a "T" followed by the GEFS.
Lets see if the Euro/EPS comes close to this number or is much higher in a bit.
 
Woah! Glad I checked into this thread. Looks like I have a chance at my first legit flakes of the year in the morning. Love the trends. I will hop in the truck and drive where ever necessary if I have to.
 
With these rapid trends we may need to bring out the shovels ?? it is interesting with every run there has been more moisture .. now up to maybe some inches for some?
 
With these rapid trends we may need to bring out the shovels ?? it is interesting with every run there has been more moisture .. now up to maybe some inches for some?

Dusting at best, this will be light, now somebody may get a surprise 0.1 or something like that, this looks like a good novelty event for sure
 
Now I'm going to be stuck watching the HRRR all day, which is always painful lol.
Yep...HRRrrRr always does this thing where it increases the moisture and gets you all excited and then pulls the rug out. I'm just waiting for the trend to reverse lol.
 
HRRR is showing a bit of a convective nature to the precip. I wouldn’t be surprised if some areas got a quick dusting to an inch under one of those convective bands, assuming that verifies, but for the most part this will likely just be a flizzard storm.
 
Wow, 12Z Euro has joined the wetter 12Z party! Of course, he was actually one of the first to the party.
 
Feast your eyes on this progression of the last 4 Euro runs and you’ll see that the latest is the wettest by a wide margin overall and is generally wetter from the TX/LA border ENE all the way to SE NC:

366F0F07-67EE-40DE-8768-E18E2A05B840.png2B457EC5-F209-413D-8F6F-17EF0E81726A.pngE0D3E9B9-4D37-43BC-99F3-56EE219F159F.pngA31F4F09-D890-487E-9794-729250CC6B1E.png
 
That warm sector of air just really kills it for CAE, jeez we get moisture out of it and the delayed cold air just kills it for us. Frustrating as hell.
 
With this, we know the NW trend is still alive and well. Hopefully later this year the Atlantic will be colder and the SER can take a long nap.
 
HRRR composite reflectivity shows quite well the band of heavy precip that develops over SC and has it sliding NE into NC. This will be something to watch as returns look solid with it.
View attachment 17296
Check please. I’d love to see one more accumulating snow while I’m still temporarily around in Fayetteville
 
With this, we know the NW trend is still alive and well. Hopefully later this year the Atlantic will be colder and the SER can take a long nap.
Can you post Euro snow map? My phone is acting up
 
Here are the final numbers for KCAE for the 12z runs only. Future short range model runs like the RAP/HRRR/18z will not be taken into account.

12z Model Suite Precipitation Accumulation Forecast from College of Dupage active readout
GEFS Mean: 0.15-0.17 (large area)
RAP: 0.29
GFS: 0.21
FV3: 0.16
NAM 32KM: 0.12
NAM 3KM: 0.06
CMC: 0.19
HRRR: 0.08

Tropical Tidibits Map
NAM 12KM: 0.05 - 0.10
ICON: 0.15 - 0.20
RGEM: 0.15 - 0.20

Weatherbell Maps
ECMWF Operational: 0.20 (0.30 very close by)
EPS Mean: 0.10

Other
UKMET Guestimated: 0.15-0.20

Model Blend Totals (inches of precipitation)
All 12z Operational Model Mean: 0.167 (or 0.17)
EPS/GEFS Mean: 0.135 (or 0.14)


If I were to make a forecast based on this data, I would say 0.15-0.20 inches of liquid precipitation (equivalent), with up to 0.25 inches under heavier showers like the simulated radar reflectivity has started to show in random areas. The NAM tends to be too dry, and I think the EPS is slightly too dry. The HRRR/RAP tend to be too wet, from experience, which causes pause with the 0.08 put out by the HRRR versus the RAP's 0.29.
 
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Here are the final numbers for KCAE for the 12z runs only. Future short range model runs like the RAP/HRRR/18z will not be taken into account.

12z Model Suite Precipitation Accumulation Forecast from College of Dupage active readout
GEFS Mean: 0.15-0.17 (large area)
RAP: 0.29
GFS: 0.21
FV3: 0.16
NAM 32KM: 0.12
NAM 3KM: 0.06
CMC: 0.19
HRRR: 0.08

Tropical Tidibits Map
NAM 12KM: 0.05 - 0.10
ICON: 0.15 - 0.20
RGEM: 0.15 - 0.20

Weatherbell Maps
ECMWF Operational: 0.20 (0.30 very close by)
EPS Mean: 0.10

Other
UKMET Guestimated: 0.15-0.20

Model Blend Totals (inches of precipitation)
All 12z Operational Model Mean: 0.167 (or 0.17)
EPS/GEFS Mean: 0.135 (or 0.14)


If I were to make a forecast based on this data, I would say 0.15-0.20 inches of liquid precipitation (equivalent), with up to 0.25 inches under heavier showers like the simulated radar reflectivity has started to show in random areas. The NAM tends to be too dry, and I think the EPS is slightly too dry. The HRRR/RAP tend to be too wet, from experience, which causes pause with the 0.08 put out by the HRRR versus the RAP's 0.29.
How would the warm nose affect us? Wouldn't it keep us at all rain? it's pretty evident on all modeling.
 
Can you post Euro snow map? My phone is acting up

My Euro map doesn’t show enough accumulation to get on the clown map.

Meanwhile, the EPS joins the wetter 12Z party. Here’s the 12Z vs 0Z. 12Z is wetter from TX/LA border ENE to SE NC. We need to watch what’s going on in the NW Gulf starting about now to get an idea of what may be to come. My clown maps don't have enough snow to make the map in case anyone is wondering, but that’s not important now:

CF4B46B3-36A9-41F4-8524-1D42C5FD4426.png9B83CE6A-C051-4399-A90C-44AB652E0E29.png
 
How would the warm nose affect us? Wouldn't it keep us at all rain? it's pretty evident on all modeling.

This is just raw liquid numbers. Snow is not a factor in any of these numbers, as I don't expect temperatures to support it, even if we have thicker moisture possibly getting into the snow growth region like the RGEM or RAP for example, would show. The 12z EPS mean does have a trace 0.01 amount of "snow" through the Midlands, though. The GEFS does not.

I'm putting these numbers together for future reference on light events/NW trends with a less than ideal eventual surface low pressure placement.
 
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