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Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

Snowflowxxl said:
Euro has some ridiculous CAPE values in south Alabama on Sunday.
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The Euro is absolutely nasty across AL and GA. Moisture continues to increase with dew points 65-68 across the area and any less convection and that 2000+ cape gets north.

I'm gonna throw 3/15/2008 as my analog at this point.
 
Arcc said:
The Euro is absolutely nasty across AL and GA. Moisture continues to increase with dew points 65-68 across the area and any less convection and that 2000+ cape gets north.

I'm gonna throw 3/15/2008 as my analog at this point.
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That was a nasty day..
080315_rpts.pngday1otlk_20080315_1200_prt.gif
 
ICON looks quite menacing and has some sharp temp differentials in NC as well. This is definitely looking like a severe threat if things hold.
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Webberweather53 said:
I personally wouldn't mind a little teeny wedge right along the blue ridge escarpment to enhance local baroclinicity and horizontal shear in the central-western piedmont. This is actually largely why there's a secondary local max in tornado track density over Charlotte and Winston-Salem w/ the main corridor being my old stomping grounds in Fayetteville and areas along/just east of I-95.

View attachment 16797
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Im interested do you have this map for South Carolina Webb?
 
Yeah the ICON is bad looking.
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Meteorologist1999 said:
Im interested do you have this map for South Carolina Webb?
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I don't have the same map for South Carolina on hand but the stripe of deep red would be generally along the I-20 corridor from Augusta to Columbia & Florence-Dillon +/- about 75 miles.


Myfrotho704_ said:
Probably some high helicity along that wedge front
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CAD erosion severe setups like that are really good at producing tornadoes on the I-85 corridor from Charlotte to the Triad. You just have to erode it to the right degree, too little erosion and you're socked in w/ cold rain, too much and you get too far into the warm sector to benefit from the enhanced horizontal shear and helicity near the CAD boundary.
 
EPS falling in line. About to go look through the members.

Edit: a lot of agreement within the members.
 

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I just checked the DWD-ICON documentation and notice they have severe parameters like CAPE_MU. wonder why no source is outputting those maps? Could be useful here..
 
0Z FV3 has ~60kt low level jet at 850MB over N AL into Ga 18z Sunday. 60 degree dew points up into AL/TN border with slp into central TN.
 
There is a bit of a wedge signature showing up, most models have it eventually going away as the event unfolds. We know they tend to over perform though so it will need to be watched. I'm off to bed, lots to watch next couple days.
 
SPC Day 4

...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF has been the most consistent model generating a surface low
over the Arklatex immediately ahead of a surging arctic front. This
feature will be induced by a pronounced mid-level short-wave trough
that is forecast to translate across the lower MS Valley through the
Mid-South by Sunday evening. Latest guidance suggests higher-PW air
mass should advance to near the TN border ahead of the surface wave
which should allow a broad warm sector to materialize prior to
frontal passage. It appears strong-severe organized convection could
develop ahead of the short wave as strong shear and adequate
buoyancy will be in place prior to convective development.

Beyond day4, severe potential will be low into the middle of next
week as moisture/instability are shunted well offshore.
 
New discussion by Matt at NWS BMX.

Model trends are now giving clearer indications of a potential
severe weather event on Sunday. With the upper-level vortex over
southern Canada becoming less suppressive, a powerful channeled
upper-level may take on a more cyclonic shape by Sunday afternoon
as it races eastward across Texas toward the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Operational and ensemble model guidance are strongly
supportive of cyclogenesis near the Ark-La-Tex on Sunday morning,
causing a warm front to move northward with mid to upper 60s
dewpoints spreading inland through the late morning hours. This
will occur beneath relatively low 500mb to 300mb heights and
temperatures, resulting in the potential for an expansive area of
SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg. However, the northward extent of the
warm sector remains in question and may not move inland as
efficiently as suggested by current model guidance. An upstream
EML would help the warm front advance northward, but there is
little to no indication of an EML at this time. Currently, it
appears that an effective warm front could become hung up near the
I-20 corridor. A deepening surface low should track toward Middle
Tennessee and continue moving northeastward Sunday afternoon with
strong height and pressure falls occurring across Alabama. If a
quality warm sector can become established, wind profiles could
become supportive of severe storms and tornadoes as suggested by
the ECMWF. Development could occur anytime from the late morning
through the afternoon hours as the nose of a diffluent 300mb jet
overspreads the region. The ECMWF has been leading the way with
this scenario for several runs and continues to explicitly depict
multiple long-track supercells impacting Alabama as storms become
organized just ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. A
tornado threat could become maximized near any boundaries from
morning convection or near an effective warm front. This is a very
bullish idea from the ECMWF and will need to be confirmed by
other models before sounding the alarms. Forecast confidence is
low regarding critical details, but a threat for severe storms and
tornadoes will be added to the HWO
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BMX HWO

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY.
THE THREAT MAY BEGIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SEVERAL CENTRAL ALABAMA
RIVERS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY
 
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