Already mentioned on the other board but there is some ensemble support for warning criteria in Greensboro/Raleigh. Plenty to watch. Hope I’m wrong and it includes areas further south but I don’t see it in March.
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Hmmm, remember when I said something is gonna pop up, no I’ll stop, prolly gonna be 0 ensemble support and nc/sc bakes in the 50s/60s in this frame
Just more of your average -EPO dominated pattern here, loosing ridging around Greenland, can see the north jog with the PV lobe since we lost blocking, still got a strong -EPO/ weak +PNA, we can still work with that
12z GEFS: Strongest (along with coldest) signal for Miller A ~3/2-3 of any GEFS yet. I mean this one suggests threat not just to NC. But is it teasing us again?
@pcbjr don't completely ignore this period. Chances down that far always quite low and still low even now but this is the kind of setup that CAN do an extremely rare something even down as far as you IF everything falls into place. I'm certainly interested for my area even knowing chances small here, too. The main thing to wonder about is whether the GEFS cold bias means these maps are too cold. If so, forget about it. We need for a decent lobe of that cold air to actually make it into the SE as opposed to just skirting us to the north. And then, of course, a low with a well south in GOM location that then tracks across preferably south FL for you (need central or S FL crossing for here up to
@Stormsfury in CHS).
@pcbjr don't completely ignore this period. Chances down that far always quite low and still low even now but this is the kind of setup that CAN do an extremely rare something even down as far as you IF everything falls into place. I'm certainly interested for my area even knowing chances small here, too. The main thing to wonder about is whether the GEFS cold bias means these maps are too cold. If so, forget about it. We need for a decent lobe of that cold air to actually make it into the SE as opposed to just skirting us to the north. And then, of course, a low with a well south in GOM location that then tracks across preferably south FL for you (need central or S FL crossing for here up to
@Stormsfury in CHS).
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm liking this trend towards a stronger +PNA. That'll be the only thing that could get us a storm at this point. The EPS is coming around but at least they both kill the SER.
How about one member showing Phil some love...
Details (summation below): Here's the GFS ensemble mean at 264: To go along with GaWx's precip map above, this image is about at the period of maximum pressing southward of the PV. You see the omega block still in place out west with the STJ undercutting. Given the agreement between model suites of the AK block and resulting downstream trough, I would guess that the typical cold bias may be less of an issue here. You can also see a 1037 (member average) high is dropping into the Plains. There should be some decent snow pack to the north, which will hopefully aid any cold air transport.
The shaded region indicates an area where I would wager that a wave of low pressure has developed or is developing. Given the nature of the split flow, a phasing scenario is possible. But those are details that are impossible to determine at 10-11 days. There is broad ensemble support (as you can see in metwannabe's map above) for some wintry precipitation in the SE. The pattern appears to become somewhat more muted toward the end of the run. Could just be due to smoothing or could be that the pattern will transition to something else.
One thing seems to be clear, we won't be getting a big -NAO block anytime soon. I guess we'll have to wait until spring for that. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows in a few. In the meantime, things are still looking pretty good here.
Summation: Pattern good
The shaded region indicates an area where I would wager that a wave of low pressure has developed or is developing. Given the nature of the split flow, a phasing scenario is possible. But those are details that are impossible to determine at 10-11 days. There is broad ensemble support (as you can see in metwannabe's map above) for some wintry precipitation in the SE. The pattern appears to become somewhat more muted toward the end of the run. Could just be due to smoothing or could be that the pattern will transition to something else.
One thing seems to be clear, we won't be getting a big -NAO block anytime soon. I guess we'll have to wait until spring for that. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows in a few. In the meantime, things are still looking pretty good here.
Summation: Pattern good
Back from my self imposed exile...before I left I got trolled to death for saying the FV sucked and now it's generally accepted. Go figure.
Agree with metwannabe...pattern good.
GEFS v/s late winter snow pattern for RDU
Agree with metwannabe...pattern good.
GEFS v/s late winter snow pattern for RDU
This is not far off from when the December storm happened right ? I can’t seem to find any 5H maps from that storm but I know there was some type of split flow action going on, anyways I’m fine with a +NAO so everything in the southern stream can stay sheared
The Dec event was a good pattern, lot of check marks for NC snows.
Strong ridge west of Hudson Bay, strong Newfoundland low.
Not to start another debate about it, but it is interesting how many of the major SE snowstorms (and I'm including some historic ones like 2/1973, 3/1980, 3/1983, 1/1988, 3/1993) didn't have a -NAO either just before or during. Just saying it doesn't seem the least bit crucial to me based on the last 45 years at least.
+PNA/-EPO combo is been the way to go lately
Well we haven’t had -NAO winter since the very cold and snowy 2010 and 2011. So it’s not like we have been striking out with -NAO’s.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah I agree. I think that's what got people aboard thinking it could bring the best setup for snow. However, I remember Larry posting some stats about ATL and snow regarding NAOs and it didn't matter what level it was at it was pretty much even chances at getting snow. It makes sense too, since the PNA being positive is what sends the trough in the east down a majority of the time.
Example of why we need a +PNA, all a - PNA does is allow room for the SER to expand over here, exactly why the storm yesterday didn’t work
packfan98
Moderator
12z Euro is quite a bit colder than the 0z run. The 1057HP dropping through the Dakotas should give us a shot at something down the road.
packfan98
Moderator
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like the GEFS was onto something. Let's see if this holds. That would be a massive storm if phased and with that cold air too. I think the high has my attention the most.
Some of the storm stats may differ from this a bit, but I think about the NAO like this: It doesn't guarantee a storm. But it establishes a pattern up north that allows high pressure to build in and remain in place longer, thus widening the window for a storm. It also allows the flow to slow, thus allowing systems to amplify somewhat (or extensively). The -NAO configuration matters in that an east-based signature is less effective at this process than west-based.
I am in total agreement with the +PNA, although a strong -NAO/neutralish PNA pattern is not a bad one at all, especially if the STJ is active and we have cold on we side of the globe. The thing about it is, depending on the height, sharpness, and position of the western ridge, you can end up with a cold dry flow, or you can end up with reforming/Miller B scenarios, especially when the NAO is + or neutral.
In recent years, we've been blessed with periods of "good" patterns which primarily feature the -EPO/+PNA/+ or neutral NAO. Our winter storms have mostly been mixy. It's a common result of that pattern. A -NAO, configured correctly, presses the PV south, supports confluence in the NE, and suppresses the storm track. It essentially widens the window for winter weather. I prefer it be part of the pattern. But in the end, it's not necessary in order to get a winter storm.
I am in total agreement with the +PNA, although a strong -NAO/neutralish PNA pattern is not a bad one at all, especially if the STJ is active and we have cold on we side of the globe. The thing about it is, depending on the height, sharpness, and position of the western ridge, you can end up with a cold dry flow, or you can end up with reforming/Miller B scenarios, especially when the NAO is + or neutral.
In recent years, we've been blessed with periods of "good" patterns which primarily feature the -EPO/+PNA/+ or neutral NAO. Our winter storms have mostly been mixy. It's a common result of that pattern. A -NAO, configured correctly, presses the PV south, supports confluence in the NE, and suppresses the storm track. It essentially widens the window for winter weather. I prefer it be part of the pattern. But in the end, it's not necessary in order to get a winter storm.
packfan98
Moderator
Euro was close as all post above indicate, we've got storm signal from globals and -epo/+pna, this far out it's all one can really hope for...... at least we seem to have potential one more time, better than nothing.
Add to these: 3/09, 1/14 (snowjam), 2/14, 12/17, the 2 of 1/18, 12/18....none of these had a -NAO either the day of or dominating during prior days before
And to add for March: on 3/12/1987 ATL had 1.2". There was +NAO then, too, though it wasn't a major storm.
So, for March, alone: these had no -NAO: 3/1980, 3/1983, 3/1987, 3/1993, 3/2009
March 1960 had a strong -NAO precede it in late Feb and it was mainly neutralish during much of the early March action before returning. I'll still call this -NAO due to late Feb./mid March -NAO. March 2010 had a-NAO though it wasn't a major storm.
So for the major March storms, alone: 1960 storms were -NAO but 1980, 1983, 1993, and 2009 were not -NAO. Conclusion: I'm not at all concerned that there will not be a -NAO in early March of 2019 per models. The last 60 or so years tell me that.
***Edit: part of the confusion may be that you can have a strong Greenland Block and a neutral NAO. But some of the big storms still did have a solid +NAO.
ATLwxfan
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Today's storm puts most of their area at their seasonal average for snowfall. I think they score 2 more decent storms and go above average. I'm sure they still have some that complain about not getting enough snow. There's some like that in every region.
pcbjr
Member
May I chime in?
-NAO is great, but not necessary (as Larry points out); what is generally a driver for us folks in the PNA ... followed in good part by the EPO ... just IMHO ...
Bell rings in 3 ... gotta run ...
dsaur
Member
Just have to wait for the rains to dry up, lol. That's the big signal. When the rains stop, it will get cold. I mean, why would mother nature do anything for us, when she could turn the knife and watch us squirm. She and old man winter love that more than anything
And it's because we want winter weather so badly, lol. Not so much fun to take something away, unless there is rampant desire for it, and the deep south has that in spades. It's raw and wet, 45 here, yet the O line might as well be atop Everest, but you watch...as soon as there is no rain on the models for 10 days, it will get as cold as a witch's tips, lol. And if you go out late at night you can hear the old man, and the mother, just cackling. The moles sold their tanning booth, they just lie out in the yard now..between the bouts of rain
It's out there but storm signal still on the eps (individual members showing some deep south storm tracks)
snowlover91
Member
It's out there but storm signal still on the eps (individual members showing some deep south storm tracks)
Hmmm image isn't showing up. How did the day 11-15 EPS look? Improved?
Not bad, -epo, split flow, trough in the east.... PNA could be better but not horrible at all
The Miller A showing up on the GEFS is clearly colder than that of the EPS and GEPS due to more entrenched cold air and a further SE track on the GEFS. Also, the timing of the Miller A between the 3 is a bit different.
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pcbjr
Member
An observation only, and restricted to that map only ...
without a +PNA it's blocking warm air ...
pcbjr
Member
1) nothing guarantees cold ... including a +PNA
2) "very cold" ... for some but not southern NC, SC, GA and FLA ... and those are anomalies, not "real" temps ...
Not fighting ... just making some observations ...
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Gonna need some of those pink and purple colors in the SE for any chance at snow... considering avg temps will be in the 60s by March.