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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump

Tarheel1 said:
Absolutely 0 local mets had any mention of sleet pellets mixing in or anything! Went straight rain and ice possibly in the mtns! Peoples are like WTH??
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Chris Justus posted a video at 11:15, he mentions low impact sleet in upstate, and says he expects it to be rain after lunch onwards
 
FV3 not going down without a fight......

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Clouds finally starting to stream in, hopefully will temper the warmup some.... 45 at the house but DP has dropped to 26. Some DP's in the teens not too far north either and with a 1040 hp, anything is possible this evening
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think it might be onto something. I think if it was going to back down it would have done it by now.
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It showed 3" across the Va border not 50 miles from me Friday night for Saturday's storm..... they never got a flake, so unfortunately it's got a CAD cold bias. However, this set up a little better so we shall see
 
Sleet City USA said:
Chris Justus posted a video at 11:15, he mentions low impact sleet in upstate, and says he expects it to be rain after lunch onwards
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Point was he didn’t yesterday. Anybody can now cast!
 
Webberweather53 said:
I’ve had a light-moderate sleet/rain mix in NE Charlotte for about the last half hour or so, we finally legitimately saturated the column after a third wave of showers moved in. It still counts as a trace of snow/sleet so I guess I call it a win?
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Considering models were showing just rain there I’d say it overperformed!
 
Webberweather53 said:
I’ve had a light-moderate sleet/rain mix in NE Charlotte for about the last half hour or so, we finally legitimately saturated the column after a third wave of showers moved in. It still counts as a trace of snow/sleet so I guess I call it a win?
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Precip has really struggled to make it to the ground over here, just maybe a few pingers here or there, I don’t know if consider than a good thing or not becuase i kinda do want a drier column for later so I can have a shot at wetbulbing to a snow sounding with heavier precip
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Precip has really struggled to make it to the ground over here, just maybe a few pingers here or there, I don’t know if consider than a good thing or not becuase i kinda do want a drier column for later so I can have a shot at wetbulbing to a snow sounding with heavier precip
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Very true unfortunately I think when heavier precip moves in we are more likely to be sleet rather than snow and if snow does manage to fall it could be heavily rimed which limits accumulations or perhaps it’s so timed we end up with graupel instead.
 
Friend in Rock Hill driving up I 77 around mid morning reported the ground was briefly turning white from the sleet (0.1”) so I guess that counts as accumulation but can’t rule out a dusting or half inch or so except perhaps right at the VA border if a really heavy band of sleet or sleet and snow moves in
 
SoutheastRidge said:
So is this the front end thump that's being advertised or is there another thump coming ?
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There's really only 1 front end thump technically speaking.... and what's occurring now in the southern parts of NC is part of that, still to come for areas further north. "Being advertised" not sure exactly what's being implied but the areas that have the advisories have yet to see the precip if that's what you are referencing.
 
The NAM has been progressively slowing up this intense band of frontogenetical forcing across NC later this evening and into the overnight hours. Areas towards Charlotte and the SC border region may have one final opportunity for a burst of sleet just after rush hour (if at all) before an inevitable changeover to rain.

Closer to the Triangle & the Triad area the band is probably going to move in sometime around 8-11pm or so, those near the VA border may not see much til around midnight or so but we'll see!
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I’m 5 degrees colder than what was modeled earlier for this time. It’s 35 and was showing 40 on a few runs before. Wondering if cad is stronger.
 
pouring sleet/graupel and a few big wet snowflakes mixed in there, wish we could of saved this precip for later where the much heavier/steadier rates start so the column won’t be as moist resulting in a better chance for snow, otherwise it’s a big win seeing snow/sleet with this as the dominating pattern F27DA3CD-E721-4C5B-A993-3314E6C9035E.png
 
My problem is that I’m already at 95% humidity and 35 deg. Not much room to go lower without strong dry wind from the north. It’s about to rain or sleet heavily.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
pouring sleet/graupel and a few big wet snowflakes mixed in there, wish we could of saved this precip for later where the much heavier/steadier rates start so the column won’t be as moist resulting in a better chance for snow, otherwise it’s a big win seeing snow/sleet with this as the dominating pattern View attachment 16003
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Your phone battery keeps decreasing. It was charging earlier. You are not going to be able to take pics of that big frontogenic band or make it to the 18z models if you don't plug it in!
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
So is that second heavy wave our round two?
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Yes. The band of precipitation over NE GA is part of the complex that could deliver a quick front-end thumping to parts of NC & VA and this band has become considerably heavier and features more hydrometeor melting aloft than it did about an hour or so ago. The secondary circulation generated by the frontogenetical forcing aloft is reinforcing the CAD dome and east-northeasterly flow/dry advection in the low-levels which might explain the brief break we've seen of late. However, isentropic upglide & warm air advection will eventually out and force the precipitation and associated frontogenetical forcing to advance northeastward into the Carolinas & Virginia.
 
snowlover91 said:
The large area of precip moving through GA right now is the main wave that models had for tonight. The key will be how far east it gets and if there will be enough cooling to switch areas to snow/sleet in Central NC as it moves through.
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I know it's more to it than this but I like the trajectory of that wave at the moment..... looks good so far. For folks up along the border timing is much better too
 
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