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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump

Poimen said:
6Z NAM has backed way off with the freezing rain potential in the Piedmont regions. We'll have to see if this continues with the 12Z suite, but I'm inclined to believe in more of a cold rain than any significant ice accrual. We'll see.
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I don't know. The CAD is almost always stronger than what the models show. The temps could be off by a couple of degrees and that could make a big difference. They were off by almost 10 degrees with the forecast a few days ago.
 
Poimen said:
6Z NAM has backed way off with the freezing rain potential in the Piedmont regions. We'll have to see if this continues with the 12Z suite, but I'm inclined to believe in more of a cold rain than any significant ice accrual. We'll see.
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I never thought it would do what it was showing. Yesterday sunshine heated up the roads and unless we get down to 29-30 degrees it will be a non event. We have already pre treated as that is what contracts want but shouldn't be much to it. We have had several close calls this year but this isn't horseshoes.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't know. The CAD is almost always stronger than what the models show. The temps could be off by a couple of degrees and that could make a big difference. They were off by almost 10 degrees with the forecast a few days ago.
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Temps were off the other day but will not be that far off this time. If a thump of snow happens it will cool down but rain will not cool us that much. This is a non event for most
 
Poimen said:
6Z NAM has backed way off with the freezing rain potential in the Piedmont regions. We'll have to see if this continues with the 12Z suite, but I'm inclined to believe in more of a cold rain than any significant ice accrual. We'll see.
Click to expand...
You still have the RGEM
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What is still crazy to me is the models haven’t picked up on this band of precip that’s still moving in ... they don’t have widespread precip like that over spreading until later this afternoon... biggest wildcard imo
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
What is still crazy to me is the models haven’t picked up on this band of precip that’s still moving in ... they don’t have widespread precip like that over spreading until later this afternoon... biggest wildcard imo
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Hrrr does pick it up. It just kills it over the next 4-5 hrs as the main storm takes over to the west.
 
HRRR doesn’t even show the thunderstorms already in southern Alabama... these short range models are crack rn .. this thing is a now caster for sure
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
What is still crazy to me is the models haven’t picked up on this band of precip that’s still moving in ... they don’t have widespread precip like that over spreading until later this afternoon... biggest wildcard imo
Click to expand...

Precipitation during large-scale overrunning events like this where warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is gliding up isentropic surfaces (areas of equal temperature) (i.e. isentropic upglide) is usually more widespread & intense than forecast especially on the northern fringes of where its forecast to occur and its not uncommon to see extra sleet or snow (if it's cold enough) on the front-end.
 
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