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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump

Rain Cold said:
Were you forecast to get rain today or was it supposed to hold off until tonight? We are supposed to be dry until after 8:00 pm. There's that little batch to the south, but I'm not sure it holds together long enough to move in here.
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Our rain chances were practically zero. It was supposed to be cloudy. Forecast said dry but we had to send our guys home this morning because it’s pouring cold rain. Weather forecasting sucks these days
 
I know weather models are “tools” but which “tool” was telling us today was going to be a washout..?
 
Wow my friend in albemarle NC east of Charlotte says it’s been snowing for a little while and they have huge wet fat flakes .. he also says it’s accumulated about an inch now
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Its 38 degrees and full sunshine in winston salem. Better get here soon
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Yeah clouds have divided the state .... needs to make some northward progress

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Is that what it thought radar would look like at 9-10?
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That's the 1 hour precip rate and filters out the virga, I'm not aware of a sim radar feature for the RGEM. This map matches up fairly well overall though with the radar and areas seeing precip but it is still too dry for SC and NC. The Fv3 sim radar actually looks like it did decent too.
 
SD said:
They all pointed to it.....

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LOL I had a 0% chance of rain til later tonight. I’m a utility contractor and work outside..I told my guys to come in this morning then had to send them right back home because it was puking cold rain ?‍♂️
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
LOL I had a 0% chance of rain til later tonight. I’m a utility contractor and work outside..I told my guys to come in this morning then had to send them right back home because it was puking cold rain ?‍♂️
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In Greer on WH @ Lowes, currently heavy graupel or the biggest sleet in recorded history! Crunchy on some wooden steps!! Win
 
SD said:
Where did you get said forecast?

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Weather channel. actually I think it gave me a 20% chance at noon then back to virtually zero after that til night. We are damn good at rain though so I should have factored that in and blended the forecast. Shame on me
 
Tarheel1 said:
In Greer on WH @ Lowes, currently heavy graupel or the biggest sleet in recorded history! Crunchy on some wooden steps!! Win
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WYFF Radar actually looks pretty good north of 85 right now. Imagine my surprise
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the models are underdone on the precip again later tonight with even more frontogenetical forcing, might actually see a legit burst of snow/sleet around here.
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View attachment 15987
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Wouldn't be surprised. The initial column could wetbulb to a snow sounding and after waa kicks in the warm nose is thin so maybe heavy rates win

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Seems like we're shifting towards rain.... beginning of the end or will frozen precip make a comeback?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Weather channel. actually I think it gave me a 20% chance at noon then back to virtually zero after that til night. We are damn good at rain though so I should have factored that in and blended the forecast. Shame on me
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Absolutely 0 local mets had any mention of sleet pellets mixing in or anything! Went straight rain and ice possibly in the mtns! Peoples are like WTH??
 
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