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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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I'm at work tonight, so my friends keep hope alive in here lol.
 
We are going to start cleaning up the pattern thread with too much crazy banter and stuff. No offense to anyone who sees a post removed or something.

Also, no, we are not mad at anyone specifically. But we do want people to be able to read about the pattern without having to scroll through 4-5 pages of banter in between the good information.

Please use the banter thread here: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/banter-venting-thread.11/page-15
 
Our possible winter storm is stronger and further south than the 18z run out in the Pacific at hr 78.

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That possible storm is going to end up digging if things stay the same on the run so far. Uh oh, is it coming back? Stay tuned.
 
Ridge is higher out west at hr 108...this is a sign that the trough will be digging deeper.

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Its cut off and just being silly back there now. I think wave separation is happening. Too much? Lets see.
 
This is the first solution from GFS I have seen of it cutting off back there and lagging well behind the lead wave in all reality.
 
HEre she comes, albeit slowly. Not a fail yet.
 
This isn't going to do it. We don't really want the ridge that tall, prevents any energy from digging. Snowy solutions were digging into a more flattened ridge by now, this energy will just shear out along the ridge. This run does have more energy hanging back near Washington, but it doesn't matter if it doesn't slide out with the main energy and dig early.


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Energy finally ejecting by 132 into central US, this is good but I'd like to see it happen earlier. This could be interesting but my guess is it's snow for the NE if it digs quick enough otherwise it's OTS


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I'd guess if anything survives, it will be North regardless.
 
Thought we needed a taller ridge!? Now all of a sudden, the ridge is too tall!?
 
It got stuck over MT...this is different than 18z. We'll see what happens.

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Now this is a clear bad difference. I tried to find one studying between the previous run, but didn't until the 126 map.
 
Low is in Nebraska on this run already. :(
 
Last run had it in TX same time as it's in Nebraska on this run.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Thought we needed a taller ridge!? Now all of a sudden, the ridge is too tall!?
Click to expand...

I'll explain with a detailed graphic after this run, but flatter and more west is better. Tall ridge isn't going to work due to how weak the main line of vorticity is. Too tall = out to sea


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A bit of snow breaking out over SC due to the energy that just fizzles out over the SE...doesn't even dig enough for the MA or NE to cash in...


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I'm not sure that any precip survived yet but on the 144 500 MB maps it does look like the energy just dives.
 
I thought holding the energy back might help us out here since we weren't going to shear the wave as much and might get it to dig a little more

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The wave itself up to 150 looked better than previous runs but this is just odd...looks more like a clipper than a system that entered from the pacific.
 
SD said:
I thought holding the energy back might help us out here since we weren't going to shear the wave as much and might get it to dig a little more

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Click to expand...
not gonna be able to dig that much with such a flat flow

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An odd trend, but the wave starts out looking better before just poofing. Now lets see if it respawns itself OTS and just spins again...
 
This was a strange run. I'm still going to watch it over the next several days due to model uncertainty between its ensemble an OP.

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