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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

GaWx said:
I can sense the excitement. It is our favorite thing of the winter, the release of the biweekly Bleaklies! Are we all like RC going to predict record breaking dangerous heat on this evening’s version?
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Worst run in a very long time coming up.
 
GaWx said:
I can sense the excitement. It is our favorite thing of the winter, the release of the biweekly Bleaklies! Are we all like RC going to predict record breaking dangerous heat on this evening’s version?
Click to expand...

I turned my AC on last night so I’m all in for warmth


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
It really is discouraging after all the talk of an epic winter and all the models showing as much if not more fantasy storms then in recent memory anyway and by fantasy I mean around 10 days. Just seems like when models and their ensembles used to show a threat even that far out, you could count on something.......oh well, we always have March Lol.

And this weather sucks, went outside yesterday when I got off work, felt something biting my leg, killed 3 mosquitoes with one swat they were so thick..... it's going to be a long long long summer
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Yeah it's not just the FV3, it just epically failed this time but the Euro and other models have had plenty of day 7+ snow events that didn't materialize. The only thing of substance outside of the early December event was the frontal fail that models also did poorly with, even the Euro from what I recall. I think it's time to write this winter off, there is still time IF we can get some colder weather to sustain but that seems to be nearly impossible to do right now without a +PNA. That's the one thing we've really been missing all winter long and in my experience, even with all other indices unfavorable, the +PNA can provide some nice opportunities for our area. Oh well, just goes to show how using even the best technology and analogs doesn't mean the weather will do what we think. There are likely some unknown factors we haven't yet discovered or understand very well that are causing some of these issues as well IMO.
 
GaWx said:
I can sense the excitement. It is our favorite thing of the winter, the release of the biweekly Bleaklies! Are we all like RC going to predict record breaking dangerous heat on this evening’s version?
Click to expand...
I too predict warm, warmer, and then torch with a little slight below around early March.
 
HOT off the press from JB: “Feb 9-15 looks to me alot like Feb 1994 which was post Dec stratwarm year Monster SOI crash ala 2010 Feb starts next week, then look out rest of winter, I believe a crescendo of cold Feb 15-Mar 14 blending 1978,2015, 2010 analogs, 2010 MJO into 8, same thing setting up”

Keep in mind he predicted a very cold DJF for the SE US of -3 to -5 with some places even colder than -5! He’s still not giving up. -70/day anomalies coming up?
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah it's not just the FV3, it just epically failed this time but the Euro and other models have had plenty of day 7+ snow events that didn't materialize. The only thing of substance outside of the early December event was the frontal fail that models also did poorly with, even the Euro from what I recall. I think it's time to write this winter off, there is still time IF we can get some colder weather to sustain but that seems to be nearly impossible to do right now without a +PNA. That's the one thing we've really been missing all winter long and in my experience, even with all other indices unfavorable, the +PNA can provide some nice opportunities for our area. Oh well, just goes to show how using even the best technology and analogs doesn't mean the weather will do what we think. There are likely some unknown factors we haven't yet discovered or understand very well that are causing some of these issues as well IMO.
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Posted about this in the February thread, but it looks more and more that things we looked at in the past to help predict the weather now doesn't apply anymore. Maybe that's why the models are showing the fantasy storms, too. They are using data based on what used to happen, but there is always a fly in the ointment now that shows up a lot more than it used to.
 
GaWx said:
HOT off the press from JB: “Feb 9-15 looks to me alot like Feb 1994 which was post Dec stratwarm year Monster SOI crash ala 2010 Feb starts next week, then look out rest of winter, I believe a crescendo of cold Feb 15-Mar 14 blending 1978,2015, 2010 analogs, 2010 MJO into 8, same thing setting up”

Keep in mind he predicted a very cold DJF for the SE US of -3 to -5 with some places even colder than -5! He’s still not giving up. -70/day anomalies coming up?
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I think he will be wrong again. I don't think using analogs alone will make his forecast even close. When I hear blending analogs I think he's just referring to his garbage Pioneer model which we all know is cold biased. I'm sure we will bake instead. Now if he said it would be warm then it'll be believable.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think he will be wrong again. I don't think using analogs alone will make his forecast even close. When I hear blending analogs I think he's just referring to his garbage Pioneer model which we all know is cold biased. I'm sure we will bake instead. Now if he said it would be warm then it'll be believable.
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Yeah sometimes JB can be pretty good with pattern recognition (whether luck or skill who knows) but this winter he has been horrendous, calling for epic cold that doesn't really verify or sustain not to mention his busted DJF forecast.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah sometimes JB can be pretty good with pattern recognition (whether luck or skill who knows) but this winter he has been horrendous, calling for epic cold that doesn't really verify or sustain not to mention his busted DJF forecast.
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JB can be really, really good when there is a cold winter. He really can be amazing. His ability to recognize cold when it actually verifies is among the best I’ve ever seen....probably the best! I mean if it’s going to turn out to be cold, we can feel assured that he will have been on top of it. That’s saying a lot, folks!
 
Brick Tamland said:
Posted about this in the February thread, but it looks more and more that things we looked at in the past to help predict the weather now doesn't apply anymore. Maybe that's why the models are showing the fantasy storms, too. They are using data based on what used to happen, but there is always a fly in the ointment now that shows up a lot more than it used to.
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I'm not sure that's the cause, I think there are some factors that we don't totally understand still or have yet to discover that are influencing our blocking and seasonal patterns. Perhaps there are forces driving our blocking/seasonal patterns that were different in past analogs and science just hasn't discovered them or fully grasped the complexity. It probably didn't help that our weak Nino faded and the SOI never really tanked/sustained in negative territory.
 
GaWx said:
JB can be really, really good when there is a cold winter. He really can be amazing. His ability to recognize cold when it actually verifies is among the best I’ve ever seen....probably the best! I mean if it’s going to turn out to be cold, we can feel assured that he will have been on top of it. That’s saying a lot, folks!
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I guess if you say epic cold all the time every winter you're bound to get it right eventually!
 
This may end up being the SE ridgiest/-PNAest winter month of alltime per models! If you enjoy looking at an endless -PNA/SER, you must be in heaven looking at the models these days!
 
Well I was hoping we could see a good SOI drop and the eps was right. Now....it appears we may get a drop, but eps is looking worse and worse so there’s that. What an awful winter. I don’t expect snow really IMBY but good cold fronts with lasting power I do. Adios crappy cool season. Let’s go blowtorch
 
I slept with the bedroom window open last night. Could hear the creek running down at the bottom of the hill and the night creatures were loud and on the move. Spring has certainly sprung. No denying that
 
Don’t get me wrong I love 70’s. To me, mid 70’s is some of the most comfortable weather. I’m sure if we lived in a cooling world where cold and windy 40’s and 50’s was the norm for the bulk of the year that would get old too. Probably more so. I think 2-3 snow days out of every year is a fair bargain. We’re not asking for much really.
 
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