Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

[Arcc]

I remember previous run had the precip getting out before 12, here’s the GFS at noon with precip still in Bama.

No it's not, that is a QPF map. Precip is well out of AL by 18z.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

The Jist I get out of all these maps is there will be a nice swath of possibly significant (for the south) snow from west central al through WC/NW GA into the mnts. NE Burbs of ATL/NE GA miss out for the most part on this one. Still could change but this looks basically centered for a direct Central/EC Bama hit. Hopefully it works out for you guys!

I fully believe most, if not all of the Atlanta metro will at least see token flakes. Whether it accumulates, I think it's 50/50, lower the more you move east and south.

 

[Arjen Robben]

The Jist I get out of all these maps is there will be a nice swath of possibly significant (for the south) snow from west central al through WC/NW GA into the mnts. NE Burbs of ATL/NE GA miss out for the most part on this one. Still could change but this looks basically centered for a direct Central/EC Bama hit. Hopefully it works out for you guys!

How?
There is little indication on the models that the NE Burbs of ATL are missing out.

 

[deltadog03]

No it's not, that is a QPF map. Precip is well out of AL by 18z.

great post!!

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Great hit

 

[Arcc]

Take a look at this. Notice the tilt of the moisture axis.
View attachment 13953View attachment 13954

Gonna be some wicked rates as that thing tilts. Need more cold air!

 

[ATLwxfan]

GFS for the win

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Anemic look for ATL but should see flakes


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[NWCummingWx]

How?
There is little indication on the models that the NE Burbs of ATL are missing out.

Every map I'm seeing says anywhere east of Cobb to Cherokee or so sees very little, for the most part. When I say "missing out", I mean less than say half an inch.

 

[Jacques]

Liking where I'm at. Temps will be interesting.

 

[Rick]

Gonna be some wicked rates as that thing tilts. Need more cold air!

Need the precip to break out to the northwest sooner than modeled I'm in north Alabama

 

[Myfrotho704_]

fv3 looks wayyyy better for nc

 

[Arcc]

This chart isn't always accurate, especially if the rates are high enough, but it is something to ponder on.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Good grief i would hate to be in the city of Atlanta. Talk about living on the edge !

 

[Rick]

Correction, that GFS run is good for C AL, but not for N AL.

Right they just all seem to realize north Alabama seems to be getting shafted on models we need the precip to break out earlier to the northwest of us

 

[NWCummingWx]

Good grief i would hate to be in the city of Atlanta. Talk about living on the edge !

Right now that's the life I'm living. Right on the edge.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[TheBatman]

Here comes the famous 24 hour northwest trend.

#FORTHEWIN!!!

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Wow, FV3 really amped up precip totals this run.

 

[accu35]

Here comes the famous 24 hour northwest trend.

#FORTHEWIN!!!


View attachment 13971

Thats becaue it's still snowing there at hr 36. Next frame should good

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Fv3 is more tilted and slightly slower at H5

 

[accu35]

Gefs continue the south trend, some big hits further south

 

[Arcc]

I think everyone needs to realize something. While the averaged precip type maps are pretty, they do not show the whole picture. Everyone has a razor thin margin between nothing to snow falling to snow accumulating. Chris pointed out the slight warming trend early and this line of precip will be racing. A degree or two warmer at the surface or aloft and it's over. Tread very cautiously.

 

[accu35]

SOUTH TREND!!!!!

 

[accu35]

 

[deltadog03]

I think everyone needs to realize something. While the averaged precip type maps are pretty, they do not show the whole picture. Everyone has a razor thin margin between nothing to snow falling to snow accumulating. Chris pointed out the slight warming trend early and this line of precip will be racing. A degree or two warmer at the surface or aloft and it's over. Tread very cautiously.

Fv3 coming in a little colder. Tells nam products to piss off. (Gordon Ramsey reference). Lol watching Hell’s Kitchen

 

[deltadog03]

 

[deltadog03]

Also, can I say this again. LOL timing is awful for the state of Georgia

 

[Weatherlover92]

00z UK - Heaviest precip shifting south in AL/GA again.

 

[Pup12]

My untrained says about the whole state of Alabama trending positive

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Looking for an ATM?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol @deltadog03 watching that aswell, the burger kitchen one with the delusional parents, but anyways fv3 was colder but it’s qpf maps are a bit misleading

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[LovingGulfLows]

If only FV3 was colder by a degree or two.

 

[vtrap90]

Good grief i would hate to be in the city of Atlanta. Talk about living on the edge !

I have a flight at 1130 am out of ATL Tuesday Morning. Really hoping I don't get stuck in the airport all day. Definitely paying close attention to this.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

If only FV3 was colder by a degree or two.

I'm thinking the entire metro will at least get a dusting at this point.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I have a flight at 1130 am out of ATL Tuesday Morning. Really hoping I don't get stuck in the airport all day. Definitely paying close attention to this.

That's exactly when its suppose to get started. Im sorry..

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I'm thinking the entire metro will at least get a dusting at this point.

I'm like 5 miles away from an inch, but Fv3 shows me getting nothing. Really hope models are underestimating the cold push.

 

[Philstorm91]

FV3 0z is a solid hit for Central MS and western AL. Really feeling good about the trends just 24 hours away. Winter Storm Warnings aren't out of the question for these areas if this keeps up.

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[snowman72]

Still hoping Knoxville stays in play