Yes, You could have 100 good runs and 1 bad run. Most people is going to focus on the bad run.
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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
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Ken1
Member
Nashville? Looks like nothing to me. Thoughts?
MIGHTY WARM
Arjen Robben
Member
When does HRRR. Get into range ?
Stormlover
Member
sref says about 3 inches
Stormlover
Member
it's in range..at least the 36 hour extended one...this is from a little while ago, may be new runs since.
Hrrr isn’t accurate at 36 hours
Yes, You could have 100 good runs and 1 bad run. Most people is going to focus on the bad run.
We is what we is!
. I would not sweat this right now. If 3K shows this in 12 hrs.....oh 
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18 HRS IS BEST FOR THE HRRR
Stormlover
Member
I never said if it was or wasn't..just showing it
Stormlover
Member
More than 50/50 chance of 2 plus in almost down to birmingham
Bama Ravens
Member
Bama Ravens
Member
great GFS run for north and central AL.
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS been steady here lately! Good hit once again!
Take a look at this. Notice the tilt of the moisture axis.
Storm5
Member
GFS for the win
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Stormlover
Member
Bama Ravens
Member
Accumulations through 42 hours.
@deltadog03 THAT IS GOOD CORRECT?
Stormlover
Member
even better with kuchera..some really big totals in central alaGFS for the win
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Storm5
Member
10:1 ratios are more likely as was mentioned by NWS offices earlier
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Gfs slowing the clearing just a smidge over GA Looks a smidge warmer here. Ugh
mjscott30
Member
Consistent southern movement with the cold and precipitation.
Stormlover
Member
NAM and GFS show around 13:1 there..so kuchera takes that into account
Snowflowxxl
Member
Trend has definitely been for warmer, at least in GA, ATL has gone down on every model tonight so far. We shall see.
It actually trended back some better for parts of north Alabama.
RollTide18
Member
I remember previous run had the precip getting out before 12, here’s the GFS at noon with precip still in Bama.
Bama Ravens
Member
EDIT: HAD TIME WRONG, these are temps at 6pm Tuesday.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Now is it actually warmer or is it just slower in progressing the front?
LovingGulfLows
Member
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The axis of accumulating snow is definitely getting smaller as we move closer to the event. It's centered on Central Alabama going northeast. I think Birmingham and places within 50 miles or so of there get a nice 2-4 inch snowstorm and then that fades as you move further away west or east. Remember when NW Ms. was getting snow?
low pressure trending south on many models, went from VA to Nc, @deltadog03 how would that help/hurt snow chances west and east of the apps ?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Low reflection further S in NC
Bama Ravens
Member
Temps at noon on Tuesday.
NWCummingWx
Member
The Jist I get out of all these maps is there will be a nice swath of possibly significant (for the south) snow from west central al through WC/NW GA into the mnts. NE Burbs of ATL/NE GA miss out for the most part on this one. Still could change but this looks basically centered for a direct Central/EC Bama hit. Hopefully it works out for you guys!