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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

SoutheastRidge said:
Hmmmm. It says up to 2 inches... I thought they only issued watches if it was 2 inches or more ? Seems like an Advisory would be a better way to go.
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A watch is a watch. An advisory would be an upgrade to a watch. Many people don’t understand that an advisory is an upgrade to a watch. They are just making everyone aware that the possibility is there. It will be changed to either and advisory or warning depending on the amounts.
 
Parker said:
A watch is a watch. An advisory would be an upgrade to a watch. Many people don’t understand that an advisory is an upgrade to a watch. They are just making everyone aware that the possibility is there. It will be changed to either and advisory or warning depending on the amounts.
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Couldn't they just start out with an Advisory and then upgrade to a Warning if needed ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Couldn't they just start out with an Advisory and then upgrade to a Warning if needed ?
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I’m pretty sure watches are typically issued 36-48 hours ahead of the actual storm and then a advisory or warning is 24 hours before the start. It’s a lot easier for a NWS to take away a watch and not catch as much hell when or if the event busts.
 
Parker said:
I’m pretty sure watches are typically issued 36-48 hours ahead of the actual storm and then a advisory or warning is 24 hours before the start. It’s a lot easier for a NWS to take away a watch and not catch as much hell when or if the event busts.
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Yeah but many people perceive a Watch as being more serious than an Advisory
 
In order for a Watch to be issued almost 2 days in advance they have to be VERY confident that a significant event is about to unfold. When there is more uncertainty they usually hold off until 12 to 24 hours beforehand.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah but many people perceive a Watch as being more serious than an Advisory
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Looking up a definition is not hard, but people are dumb. I know when I’m under a tornado watch, that all that means is conditions are favorable for a tornado but that doesn’t mean I’m gonna be under a warning or get any severe weather at all. If I’m under a warning, then there obviously is a storm actually happening. It’s not hard to understand, but this is beginning to be banter.


All I know is that Storm5 and I want our watch dagumit!
 
Weatherlover92 said:
They mentioned possibly issuing a WSW this morning on their morning disco, but said their low confidence in snowfall amounts were holding them back on issuing one.
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So obviously something transpired today in the models that made them signficantly more confident in major snow accumulations.
 
Whew, so many people hammering the Alabamawx.com website that i can't even load the post.. also sounsd like we may be in good for a good snow storm.
 
FFC issued a Watch despite saying this in the AFD:

12Z guidance a bit faster with progression of precip with a potential
quick end to the snow. Also some indication strong drying in low
levels will limit QPF and snow amounts behind front
 
15Z sref means:
Auburn .41
Montgomery .74
Meridian, Ms. 1.19
Tuscaloosa 1.27
Atlanta 1.36
Starkville 1.87
Rome, Ga. 2.11
Anniston 2.26
Tupelo, Ms. 2.33
Birmingham 2.27
Muscle Shoals 2.6
Chattanooga 2.78
Ft. Payne 2.78
Huntsville 3.03
Nashville 3.24
Jackson, Ms. 3.24
Memphis 3.43
 
Huh. .36 mean 1.49 max. Higher than I expected. Not gonna raise my expectations, I'd be happy to see flakes at all
 
FFC used to be very conservative, so i guess the 2014 event has made them be a little more aggressive. They are saying 1 to 2 inches, but if I had to guess I would say a dusting to 1 inch is more likely based on the models i've seen with an isolated 2" in some spots.
 
Also Dec 17 those models definitely undercooked the totals... everyone should be paying close attention the the next few WRF and NAM runs
 
If Super Bowl week and it's activities wasn't this week, it might have been a while longer before they did something. But WWAs are only for 1 day, you can't issue them in advance. Best to issue this heads up with more people being in town.

My guess is eventually they go to a WWA outside of the mountains and the area where they feel most confident about possibly reaching 2". Last night I would have said that a WSW was possible for the far NW GA counties, but now I'm not sure where that 2" area is going to be.

Edit: We're seeing why some of us wanted the potential winter storm even closer to the Super Bowl lmfao. It'd be a guaranteed mess, as it is I'll probably pull up the traffic map anyway to look around Mercedes Benz in Atlanta.

Edit2: Maybe they don't need to issue just a watch, given that the middle Tennessee NWS just did a WWA.
 
You can clearly see the cold front with the higher returns on the NAM, likely going to have a stronger signal as we get closer 0B197F80-9DF1-45C6-9747-C47678B47233.jpeg
 
SoutheastRidge said:
FFC used to be very conservative, so i guess the 2014 event has made them be a little more aggressive. They are saying 1 to 2 inches, but if I had to guess I would say a dusting to 1 inch is more likely based on the models i've seen with an isolated 2" in some spots.
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I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone post so much about an area that they don’t live in anymore. We get it you use to live in the southeast but you are clearly not rooting for the home team to win anymore. As for weather I am now under a winter weather advisory also but models haven’t trended good at all up here so my expectations are very low.
 
Shelby county airport(eet) has a mean right at 2in and a 6.95 boom. That 28 miles almost due west of mby.

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For those comparing this to the 2014 event, keep in mind that in 2014 we had the artic air in place for a few days prior to the precip. The road surfaces were well below freezing so it was "instant stick" rather than the "normal slush time". Also, Metro Atl school systems have set up coordination for early school release so that should help also with traffic (fingers crossed)
 
olhausen said:
I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone post so much about an area that they don’t live in anymore. We get it you use to live in the southeast but you are clearly not rooting for the home team to win anymore. As for weather I am now under a winter weather advisory also but models haven’t trended good at all up here so my expectations are very low.
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Excuse me for giving my opinion. Just because I am being conservative doesn't mean I am not rooting for the home team. Maybe I should change my forecast to 2-4" just to make you happy.
 
gawxnative said:
For those comparing this to the 2014 event, keep in mind that in 2014 we had the artic air in place for a few days prior to the precip. The road surfaces were well below freezing so it was "instant stick" rather than the "normal slush time". Also, Metro Atl school systems have set up coordination for early school release so that should help also with traffic (fingers crossed)
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Yep you are so right. The roads were much colder back in 2014 so I don't see it being as big of a problem this time. But still there will be issues.
 
gawxnative said:
For those comparing this to the 2014 event, keep in mind that in 2014 we had the artic air in place for a few days prior to the precip. The road surfaces were well below freezing so it was "instant stick" rather than the "normal slush time". Also, Metro Atl school systems have set up coordination for early school release so that should help also with traffic (fingers crossed)
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Great post


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