So I got a question. Why not just have the run like it is, with snow behind artic front(overrunning)? That way you don’t have to worry about a low causing WAA problems?? I guess both ways could work.
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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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accu35
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Lol, yeah that to
I would say because arctic fronts with snow on the backside rarely work out. If we had the front to stall and then get a wave to run along it we would have something. The event as modeled doesn't excite me and will back way away from snow 95% of the time as we near the event.
well good thing we got about 35 model runs left. ???
GFS also appeared to pop somewhat of a low after the frontal passage. It was just further south into the gulf
accu35
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Or it could trend better
Hmm, the 0z FV3 may have the low on the tail end of the front that I'm looking for.
I was looking at that earlier. As you can see there is shower activity down in the Gulf, which can indicate a devloping low. I'm all in for a Gulf low with a Miller A track, with fresh deep cold air to the north.
It could, but as far as I know, the pigs are still running free and happy in north AL. None of them to my knowledge have sprouted wings because they are in danger.
Death by a thousand cuts.
CMC
IM LIKE A KID AT CHRISTMAS WAITING ON THE EURO WHILE IM WORKING 
Snowflowxxl
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Here it comes 
Believe euro is going to have a different look.
RollTide18
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Congrats Chicago?
Stormlover
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Euro fail compared to 12Z...but things are going to go back and forth....event is still there.
Certainly doesn’t look like a southern snowstorm..
Cary_Snow95
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Based off the free maps looks like a low trying to develop at the base of the trough
I am still locked at 144
Brent
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flurries in NW AL at 156
Clem282340
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Looks like it dries up as it head east
LovingGulfLows
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I don't like the look of the surface low center to the north strengthening that much. I'd imagine that would bring warmer air in front of arctic boundary which means snow will be hard to get in this set up. If you notice on the FV3,the low stays fairly constant in pressure around 1012 mb.
Brent
Member
snowing on the beach in MS/AL at 186 lol
Oh wow, 0z Euro has Gulf low too! Yes!
Classic setup here. Arctic frontal passage with low forming at the base of the trough. NW trend in full effect. Game on
I notice snow map stop at hr 216 Euro goes out to 240 hr do it continue to the end of Run?
All within only 8 days lol.
Anyway, this is a classic very weak low with a far south track over FL giving wintry to places uncommonly far south and near the coast. Likely will be very different next run, but this shows the setup those areas like to see to get wintry. I have a feeling one of these will occur between 1/30 and 2/20. Climo peak for this kind of track is actually ~2/8-16.
Mods, can you extend the end date of this thread to 2/20?
Anyway, this is a classic very weak low with a far south track over FL giving wintry to places uncommonly far south and near the coast. Likely will be very different next run, but this shows the setup those areas like to see to get wintry. I have a feeling one of these will occur between 1/30 and 2/20. Climo peak for this kind of track is actually ~2/8-16.
Mods, can you extend the end date of this thread to 2/20?
RollTide18
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Turns out this was a good run after all, putting all my chips in this storm.