Snowflowxxl
Member
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
BHS1975
Member
Yeah a ton of moisture with that one. We might end up with a Carolina crusher on steroids.
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12z ICON will have a farily strong SLP by the looks of this.
Snowflowxxl
Member
ICON was much warmer this run as a whole, doesn’t end well
FFC:
At the far end of the forecast period, another upper-level trough
sweeps through which could bring some light snow to the forecast
area. While models are still very divided on the details, it may
be the first chance of the year for some accumulations outside the
mountainous regions of the state. The event is too far out for
deeper details at this time, but be sure to monitor for further
updates as the system updates.
At the far end of the forecast period, another upper-level trough
sweeps through which could bring some light snow to the forecast
area. While models are still very divided on the details, it may
be the first chance of the year for some accumulations outside the
mountainous regions of the state. The event is too far out for
deeper details at this time, but be sure to monitor for further
updates as the system updates.
Oops
The ICON usually has a warm bias.
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
Fv3 locked on to the December storm 7 days out.
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I think the ICON has a warm bias
Icon went from upper 20’s over a lot of GA and SC to 40’s and 50s with gulf moisture moving in ??
Showmeyourtds
Member
Icon went from upper 20’s over a lot of GA and SC to 40’s and 50s with gulf moisture moving in ??
Really seemed to kick on the WAA in front of the LP. Seems plausible, but you’d think that the LP as it moves to the east would pull down some colder air on the backside & at least see a transition.
RollTide18
Member
I think that’s what the ICON was hinting at before the run ended.
Can you spot the difference?
00z
12z
00z
12z
Last edited:
RollTide18
Member
No low in the gulf and no GL low?
It’s there. Some times my terminology falls flat but the problem is up top. PV isn’t digging in. I only know the what. Maybe someone a whole lot smarterer than me can give the why
High pressure on the east coast is further north ?
Snowflowxxl
Member
Energy a little lackluster this run
Yes I think that’s a symptom of a deeper lying issue with this run
This is fun cmc has much less energy, gfs is farther west and the icon was less enthusiastic out front
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Cary_Snow95
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah the energy that is supposed to bring our storm on the GFS entered on the Washington/Oregon border, let's see what that brings down the road.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Lol gfs gonna bury it in the sw
Gfs will probably have a system shortwave in oregon and a wave in the stj SW of the baja
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Just saw 150 with it thumbing the ridge over the top and closing it off over No Cal
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
CMC ended up being a complete whiff
Jon
Member
Wow this is a bad model...random cutoff over Cali...? Next. It probably has to kick out so this is going to be completely different
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JLL1973
Member
Looks like we're 0-3 with the 12z model suites. Maybe 18z will bring it back
Gfs has done this a few times recently not sure why. Waiting on the north american panels of the cmc to load to figure out why there is nothing at all.
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Stormlover
Member
you have the euro? don't think so..you have GFS ensembles? don't think so
Its going to kick and phase into that stuff coming into the Canadian coast into some ugly mess.Wow this is a bad model...random cutoff over Cali...? Next. It probably has to kick out so this is going to be completely different
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With OPERATIONAL models ... can we at least wait for the ensembles, which is all you should be looking at right now, Before we get negative
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah plenty of people have said look at the ensembles, if the ensembles don't support a cutoff like the GFS shows, this run should be thrown away.
Laughable at best..waste of power to even run this model at this point
6 hours ago
Now
6 hours ago
Now
GeorgiaGirl
Member
FV3 will have something during this time period but it looks suppressed, sounds good to me.
Suppression is good at this stand point.
Every model run between now and the storm is not going to be glorious every time. Let’s see what the FV3, GEFS, and Euro show before everyone panics. The icon is not the most reliable model, especially at the end of its cycle.
Chattownsnow
Member
Honestly I have been following these boards and others since 2008 and I have seen this song and dance before. More often then not the s/w trends weaker and weaker on the models as the event nears when they come out of southwest Canada. I would not be surprised at all if this thing ends up something like this by the time periods roles through. This is just based on past experience. Would be nice to buck that trend.