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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

We still have many model runs to go with this storm. Big or small, it's something to track and this storm could go either way.
 
Well this is a pleasant surprise. Let's see if RDU can finish the year with more snow than many Northeastern/Midwestern Cities!
 
So pretty much it’s suppressed just got to wait on NW Trend now.


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E17 for the win again there. I guess that one has the secondary energy come in before it warms up?

Also FYI: FV3 says yes again for Arkansas/Tennessee/North Carolina. It's not as great south of there.
 
It's a little hard to fathom that we could get a nice SE system at the beginning of a pattern change this time of year without those further north in the Mid-Atlantic and New England cashing in ahead of us. It seems like many times it takes a few storms to go north before a pattern becomes mature enough to give us a good track. Maybe the disruption of the PV and other factors we are seeing could contribute to this??
 
packfan98 said:
Many more of those 12z GEFS members are amped up and give much more snow to the mid-atlantic region than the 6z run. Looks less flat and suppressed to me.
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I think it's a better improvement further south
 
whatalife said:
HAHA! Lock the thread.


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No need for that. The overall mean did improve for the SE. It remains to be seen how much interaction the streams may have with potential phasing. This happened during the last storm where it was modeled to have more phasing at one point that ended up not panning out. It never turned the corner to hit those north of us. Time will tell with this one.
 
packfan98 said:
It's a little hard to fathom that we could get a nice SE system at the beginning of a pattern change this time of year without those further north in the Mid-Atlantic and New England cashing in ahead of us. It seems like many times it takes a few storms to go north before a pattern becomes mature enough to give us a good track. Maybe the disruption of the PV and other factors we are seeing could contribute to this??
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Southern energy comes in a great spot. The more amped ones must be phasing in energy diving over pac ridge. I say bring it on...big ole coastal. Yeah, probably not great for some of us but would like to see some big storms get going.

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Euro looked really good at 0z too based off what I saw in the January thread. Was a southern slider and if there was a little more cold, could have been snow down to Macon.
 
If the 12Z Euro is right, this would be THE greatest month of Mack’s life: big snow followed by a cruise to warm up! Truth is often stranger than fiction though this has kayfabe written all over it.
 
The 0z was more suppressed but this is still right where we want it.

The timing is remarkable because the onset is evening through the night. Really maxes out the 2mT minimums. Any change in speed and it falls outside of the ideal time frame.

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I’m willing to bet there is going to be an up tick on the EPS for this storm.


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Spurs up said:
well I'll take that dusting. I'm desperate!!
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I'm supposed to fly back from Phoenix on January 12th, (another) winter storm trying to interfere w/ travel would be fit in with the let's see how much mother nature can screw me over stereotype. Already had to deal with the ice storm in Oklahoma City & got to stand in 4-5 foot snow banks in the Colorado Rockies a couple days ago, I'm okay without snow for a while.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm supposed to fly back from Phoenix on January 12th, (another) winter storm trying to interfere w/ travel would be fit in with the let's see how much mother nature can screw me over stereotype. Already had to deal with the ice storm in Oklahoma City & got to stand in 4-5 foot snow banks in the Colorado Rockies a couple days ago, I'm okay without snow for a while.
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*a wind blows deep within your consciousness - whispers, "i want more.." but seriously enjoy it. Love how this one is looking like it will occur over the weekend which means i will be able to go to my mountain house yet again.
 
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