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Pattern Jammin' January

End of Jan, beginning of Feb, sounds awesome! Patience is a virtue! :(
 
Kylo said:
Weeklies do look great to end January and start February. Don't ask what happens before that.
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I know the beginning of December. Things looked great to start January. Now that’s been delayed to the end of January to start February. I try to be hopeful but dang this winter may not be different then last winter.


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Jessy89 said:
I know the beginning of December. Things looked great to start January. Now that’s been delayed to the end of January to start February. I try to be hopeful but dang this winter may not be different then last winter.


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This ^^^ the weeklies are trash regardless if they show what we want


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Hopefully we won't have to wait too long for this pattern to change.It would be disappointing if we don't get snow or Significant cold with this SSW that is occurring.
 
18z FV3 looks better at 5H beginning after New Year than the GFS run...fwiw of course. GEFS is better than OP too.
 
Kylo said:
It’s not overrated but it sure is rare, we haven’t had a winter month with a -NAO since winter of 2013, 6 years ago. Feb 2013 had a weak -NAO, so 20 out of the past 21 winter months have been positive. Ugghhh

I will happily take a -AO/-EPO combo but we got some work to get that. The bloody trop PV is consolidated right over the pole.
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Losing the -nao on the eps and weeklies today is a bit of a bummer. The -epo and +pna is what we have every year and what I guessed we'd have again early on. But I was hoping, am hoping this year can be different. With the Nino, modoki was hoping to get something different and get something closer up top to 09, 10. Weeklies had me hopeful, but reality is we may be dealing with the same old this year. So be it, well see. At the very least I think we're kicking the can a bit down the road. :confused:
 
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What happened to the predictions of a cold and snowy winter?


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Jessy89 said:
What happened to the predictions of a cold and snowy winter?


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January still looks BN, February looks BN and March still looks BN. Backloaded Winters require time and patience. I don’t trust models until the split. So we still have time on our side.


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When I’m quiet in winter, it is often because the latest models aren’t what I want to see. Such is the case here to say the least, which battles my overall optimism. The good news is the SSW is progressing as expected.
 
NoSnowATL said:
January still looks BN, February looks BN and March still looks BN. Backloaded Winters require time and patience. I don’t trust models until the split. So we still have time on our side.


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I hate the term “backloaded winter” with almost as much passion as I hate the term “midsouth”. I’m beginning to hate the term “-NAO” as well. Funny how no matter what combination of QBO, solar, ENSO state, AMO phase, tripole, dipole, or bipolar signal, operational forecast, ensemble forecast, seasonal forecast, mountain torque, mjo state, SAI score, or SSW magnitude, it never occurs in winter. No matter how convoluted, detailed, and well-sourced the forecast for one is, it just doesn’t transpire, to the bewilderment and dismay of anyone brave enough to forecast or expect it. Models show it and professionals forecast it, yet it eludes the 0 hour with amazing regularity.
 
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Rain Cold said:
I hate the term “backloaded winter” with almost as much passion as I hate the term “midsouth”. I’m beginning to hate the term “-NAO” as well. Funny how no matter what combination of QBO, solar, ENSO state, AMO phase, tripole, dipole, or bipolar signal, operational forecast, ensemble forecast, seasonal forecast, mountain torque, mjo state, SAI score, or SSW magnitude, it never occurs in winter. No matter how convoluted, detailed, and well-sources the forecast for one is, it just doesn’t transpire, to the bewilderment and dismay of anyone brave enough to forecast or expect it. Models show it and professionals forecast it, yet it eludes the 0 hour with amazing regularity.
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I have a job for you as a brief writer ... :cool:
 
Rain Cold said:
I hate the term “backloaded winter” with almost as much passion as I hate the term “midsouth”. I’m beginning to hate the term “-NAO” as well. Funny how no matter what combination of QBO, solar, ENSO state, AMO phase, tripole, dipole, or bipolar signal, operational forecast, ensemble forecast, seasonal forecast, mountain torque, mjo state, SAI score, or SSW magnitude, it never occurs in winter. No matter how convoluted, detailed, and well-sourced the forecast for one is, it just doesn’t transpire, to the bewilderment and dismay of anyone brave enough to forecast or expect it. Models show it and professionals forecast it, yet it eludes the 0 hour with amazing regularity.
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Preach it! It’s so aggravating, and gotten beyond ridiculous with a winter NAO. Why I am so frustrated in my posts today. Still waiting on mid-January to come to see how things look before I go completely nuclear. Still holding out hope everything you mentioned above works.
 
NoSnowATL said:
January still looks BN, February looks BN and March still looks BN. Backloaded Winters require time and patience. I don’t trust models until the split. So we still have time on our side.


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While I feel we could have a cold and snowy winter,there a chance this winter could suck(outside of Western/Central North Carolina,who already had a significant winter storm this year)from what I seen with the models, MJO, SSW, etc.While I think the positive PNA is more important than the Negative NAO for the Southeast,I would like to see a negative NAO in place to keep the cold air locked in the Southeast for a prolonged period of time with a active southern Jet.
 
Kylo said:
Preach it! It’s so aggravating, and gotten beyond ridiculous with a winter NAO. Why I am so frustrated in my posts today. Still waiting on mid-January to come to see how things look before I go completely nuclear. Still holding out hope everything you mentioned above works.
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This run of EPO/PNA driven winters we’ve had has been good for some decent cold shots and winter storms. But I mix just about every time. We can’t seem to find a real southern snowstorm in these kinds of patterns lately. Bunch of Miller B sloptitude!
 
I’m normally preaching to enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you got and that this is only wx. And I’ve been enjoying the recent pleasant crisp winter period with walks to take it in. Great outdoor wx. There has been no real warmth in most of the SE. But I have to admit that even I have been very disappointed and even a bit frustrated with today’s model consensus as well as yesterday’s warmer GFS suite trends. I mean I’ve been talking over and over about the wx index slot coming up all 7s for mid to late Jan onward and possibly starting before and then I see these runs that tell me I’d better not be so optimistic. The Euro weeklies being warmer than the prior run was such a bummer though I know it could be wrong as all it is is a very long version of the 0Z Monday EPS and even the week 2 of any EPS can jump around.
 
I think everyone just needs a breath and remember reality. We live in the south and there is a reason we average little snow. I think us in AL have been spoiled the past ten years so we can't really gripe.

All that said, none of our biggest snowstorms were well forecasted over a few days in advance when it all come together. Let's just wait and see before we line the cliff.
 
GaWx said:
I’m normally preaching to enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you got and that this is only wx. And I’ve been enjoying the recent pleasant crisp winter period with walks to take it in. Great outdoor wx. There has been no real warmth in most of the SE. But I have to admit that even I have been very disappointed and even a bit frustrated with today’s model consensus as well as yesterday’s warmer GFS suite trends. I mean I’ve been talking over and over about the wx index slot coming up all 7s for mid to late Jan onward and possibly starting before and then I see these runs that tell me I’d better not be so optimistic. The Euro weeklies being warmer than the prior run was such a bummer though I know it could be wrong as all it is is a very long version of the 0Z Monday EPS and even the week 2 of any EPS can jump around.
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I am not worried just yet. The models have been jumping around quite a bit, and as I mentioned before, even the ensembles can't be trusted. I will get nervous when the MJO stalls in phase 6 or the SSW doesn't materialize as modeled. I got to say that my hopes for a blockbuster winter have been somewhat muted with the recent trends. This is a classic case of "wait and see".
 
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