Depending on how this moves the next 3-6 hours I would think they might need to shift a little west with track for landfall and inland .
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
This definitely is not like your typical northern GOM hurricane at all!!
Brent
Member
nope usually well into the falling apart phase by now...
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I agree.....This storm continues delaying the east turn. It is already noticeably farther west than earlier tracks would have indicated.
Brent
Member
Euro dropped 19 mb before landfall btw, so... gets close to 920s with correct initialization
Looks like the east turn is starting now.
Definitely a wobble for sure. Lets see if it continues for sure.
Most definitely starting to head NNE
EURO has the NE quad winds for me at 850mb at like 150.....then comes the west part and another 150 mph...lol. again, at 850mb
Radar still looks basically due north if you smooth it out. I know it's also seeing they at 25,000 feet as well.
I am curious to see what recon finds when they punch in that NE quad and push SW to center fix....I saw that there is a good bit of lightning showing up in NE eyewall
I hope that's not right, really scary. Do you think many of those folks who stayed will try to leave when they wake up and see it's a cat 4?
Brent
Member
My going to sleep idea is not working 
Join the clubMy going to sleep idea is not working
I hope the people who were told to leave, left...but I am sure there are many that didn't
I was just looking at radar I think Michael is finally making the turn. Looking more N/NE now.
BHS1975
Member
Satellite loop reminds me of Patricia which was the strongest hurricane ever recorded.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
gawxnative
Member
HMMMM AFD from FFC has shifted both FFW and "wind Corirdor" a line of counties North.. Also says changes may be needed as more info comes in from TPC...
There goes the deep convection firing East/SE again wrapping to north...also dropsonde was 945mb with 20kt winds in eye on last pass.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Latest sonde into Michael's eye shows the minimum central pressure has fallen to near 943 hPa given the 945 reading w/ 20 KT wind. The hurricane hunters vortex data message (VDM) also shows the eyewall is still open on the SW side. Amazing how much this storm has intensified in spite of this, likely doing so via the asymmetric route I alluded to Tue morning on twitter.
BHS1975
Member
Looks like maybe 1 more good final push to max out on strength?
Up to 140MPH:
4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 28.3°N 86.5°W
Moving: N at 13 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 28.3°N 86.5°W
Moving: N at 13 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
"Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States."
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States."
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here we go for another pass, extrapolated has been closer to actual observed MSLP in this storm than I've normally grown accustomed to.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Extrapolated down to 937-938 this pass.
packfan98
Moderator
Wow! I was thinking it would start to weaken by now.
Goodness...to think those low slp on Euro/HMON/HWRF could actually verify...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's already within striking distance & stronger than what the HWRF was initially predicting a few days ago near landfall.
It's likely closer to 939 or 940 but given how close extrapolated MSLP has been to actual MSLP verified by sondes, I wouldn't think they'll differ much beyond a millibar or so here.
More hot towers going up on the SE and E side of the storm. well, and the NE as well...lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The latest VDM finally confirms Michael's eyewall is closed, rut roh.
Eric, I think he prob. has 1 good last shot to try and hit Cat 5, what you think?
gawxnative
Member
Well Chris.. FFC expanded the ST Warning area to the North and West a bit
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Chances are small, because the environment is far from perfect, he's still a long ways from getting there atm, and shelf waters will limit the integrated amount of fuel he has to work with but the closing of the eyewall makes a category 5 a legitimate, albeit small possibility because now Michael will be able to intensify more quickly.
I agree. I am still amazed it took this long to close the eyewall fully and be as strong as it is .def definitely not the typical northern GOM hurricane for sure
I saw that .I think they should expand the hurricane warnings north a smidge as well .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Agreed, the process of asymmetric intensification via persistent/large vortical hot towers is what was able to allow Michael to intensify despite that.
Kylo
Member
.