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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

accu35 said:
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
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Taken verbatim, this would be a huge problem for the Florida panhandle.
 
18z ICON, has practically the same path as 12z Euro, but...landfall about 18 hours sooner than Euro and weaker at 969.

Screenshot_20181007-185208.jpg
 
pcbjr said:
Whatever ... somebody's not gonna be happy ...
... and there's a funny feelin' about who that might could be ... :oops:
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I’m thinking the death ridge will keep it far enough west of your area.


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Just checking back in and Michael looks to be getting closer to hurricane status. It looks like a faster forward motion for this storm would bring him closer to the a north central Gulf coast landfall vs a slower motion getting picked up by the trough moving down. Interestingly, Michael looks to be our catalyst for the overdue fall weather.
 
Michael is in the process of organizing an inner core and building an upper level outflow pattern. As the shear relaxes further it will be off to the races. Unfortunately intensity models are ramping up even more tonight. Some are bringing this near cat 4 for landfall with good agreement on cat 2.
Intensity.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Michael is in the process of organizing an inner core and building an upper level outflow pattern. As the shear relaxes further it will be off to the races. Unfortunately intensity models are ramping up even more tonight. Some are bringing this near cat 4 for landfall with good agreement on cat 2.
View attachment 6759
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At the moment, I believe a cat 3 is a reasonable strength to predict for landfall due to the situation. Only exception is if the shear decides to rip the west side apart more than expected. I'm sure there will be a lot of "That's the ugliest category 2 I've seen" comments from this storm if it stays slow.
 
Will Rossman said:
Something we should keep in mind is that the GOM has been untouched this season from any storms. The whole path to the Gulf coast is unfortunately gasoline fuel for Michael. Everyone from north FL to the SE LA coast should keep an eye on this storm.
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It isn't just that it is untouched. It has been exposed to air that is well above normal, thus leading to SSTs that are 5-6 warmer than normal in the far N Gulf south of the FL Panhandle, which is the normal for late July through early Sep. This is not at all normal for early Oct. This is more like the normal in early Oct way down in the W Caribbean!
 
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Arcc said:
One thing to remember as well, as it heads inland it will start to quickly transition due to the approaching trough. That will make this extremely east sided and also expand the wind to that side.
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WxSouth just said the exact opposite on FB. Said band will get heavy on NW side of storm as front approaches.
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 6761
WxSouth just said the exact opposite on FB. Said band will get heavy on NW side of storm as front approaches.
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Not really. He is talking about the rain shield rotating around the storm which is likely. However the wind threat will primarily be on the eastern side in the strong convective band.
 
GaWx said:
Positions as of 8 PM EDT:
18Z GFS: 19.9N, 86.1W
18Z FV3: 20.3N, 85.5W
12Z UKMET: 19.5N, 85.6W
Actual: 19.9N, 85.4W
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In my crude analysis, after reviewing 5th grade geography again, :cool: I think this data explains why GFS and FV3 are out of the passage slightly faster than the UKMET. Lets hope they all true up tonight to see if it compounding the differences in future days, specifically the big difference on Tuesday.o_O
 
Looks like not much change D3-5, but a little east in short term.
 
Interesting uh discussion

Last I saw the Euro and GFS and FV GFS? was a global and pretty intense :p

The HWRF model is the most robust of the
intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just
prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and
HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly
shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern
semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of
an intense hurricane.
 
Brent said:
Interesting uh discussion

Last I saw the Euro and GFS and FV GFS? was a global and pretty intense :p

The HWRF model is the most robust of the
intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just
prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and
HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly
shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern
semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of
an intense hurricane.
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Ya, I didn't really understand the wording on that. I thought most models show a pretty descent storm.
 
RGEM, CMC and GFS so far have all slowed down some and shifted east. Trending to the Euro idea here and the Euro makes the most sense in this synoptic setup. A landfall in the big bend area then traveling up the GA to NC coast looks very reasonable to me.
 
Ehh it really didn’t shift east much at all. Icon went west a good bit. Will be interesting what FV3 shows in a bit.
 
It’s been my experience that with some westerly shear and an approaching trough these systems usually turn NE sooner than most models show. In this synoptic setup I think the Euro and UK have the right idea. GFS slowed down a lot this run once inland and RGEM did too. Models are catching up here.
 
Despite an eastern shift early, the 0Z UKMET shifted west vs the 12Z at landfall and beyond:

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46
 
GaWx said:
Despite an eastern shift early, the 0Z UKMET shifted west vs the 12Z at landfall and beyond:

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46
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That's a pretty good jump west both at coast and inland right?
 
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