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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Wind storm coming across the SE..
ecmwf_max_gust_se_138.png
 
12Z Ukmet is the fastest as well. At 120 it's off Cape Hatteras where the Euro has Michael still in Ga. Ukmet total rainfall not good for Carolina coastline.
UKMET 17 km East Coast USA Total Precipitation 120.png
 
metwannabe said:
Wind storm coming across the SE..
ecmwf_max_gust_se_138.png
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The good news is that the Euro tends to overestimate inland wind gusts quite a bit as Mack can tell you occurred with Florence in the Charlotte to GSP corridor as well as in other storms. The bad news, however, is that this is a totally different scenario meaning we can’t assume it will be that way this time IF a track like this were to verify.
One thing to note is that over the years there has been a tendency for TCs to correct further east with time. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).
 
GaWx said:
The good news is that the Euro tends to overestimate inland wind gusts quite a bit as Mack can tell you occurred with Florence in the Charlotte to GSP corridor as well as in other storms. The bad news, however, is that this is a totally different scenario meaning we can’t assume it will be that way this time IF a track like this were to verify.
One thing to note is that over the years there has been a tendency for TCs to correct further east with time. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).
Click to expand...
... clairvoyant, Larry ...
 
Henry2326 said:
Do you know how well Ukmet performed in rainfall with Florence?
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I don't know how it verified, but if I recall it was showing the significant amounts of rain similar to what the other models were showing. Main thing, like Larry mentioned, it was the furthest West compared to rest of guidance with Florence's track.
 
GaWx said:
The good news is that the Euro tends to overestimate inland wind gusts quite a bit as Mack can tell you occurred with Florence in the Charlotte to GSP corridor as well as in other storms. The bad news, however, is that this is a totally different scenario meaning we can’t assume it will be that way this time IF a track like this were to verify.
One thing to note is that over the years there has been a tendency for TCs to correct further east with time. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).
Click to expand...

Wow...that would have an error of 250 miles or more in the rest of the models that are currently west.
 
StoneMtnWx said:
I don't know how it verified, but if I recall it was showing the significant amounts of rain similar to what the other models were showing. Main thing, like Larry mentioned, it was the furthest West compared to rest of guidance with Florence's track.
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Tomorrow will be the first indicator. If its still sitting in the passage at noon, then all the rest will pull east. And vice-versa....
 
Recon flight was supposed to be tonight!? That will help with track forecasts tomorrow maybe??
 
pcbjr said:
There is a donkey. There are eager kids. There is a blindfold. There is a tail to pin.
That's where we are until tomorrow 12Z, IMHO ... :cool:
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Yup....if the donkey is in the passage at noon tomorrow, kids have longer to play. If the donkey jumps the passage gate and is headed to the pasture, the race is on to AL/western FL. Won't be able to corral him. o_O:eek::confused::mad::(
 
I’m sure this is a dumb question but what category is the euro suggesting this comes in as? A 4?
 
Kylo said:
EPS mean looks similar to Op. Several members well east of Op.

View attachment 6742
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This is similar to how I'm seeing it. The 12Z EPS mean is pretty similar to the 12Z Euro and fairly similar to the 0Z EPS mean per my eyeballs. About half the 12Z EPS members are west of the 12Z Euro and the other half east with still *a good bit of spread*. Through 5 days vs the Euro, the number to the NW are greater than the number to the SE. But past 5 days it is the other way around.
The 12Z EPS mean is stronger than the 0Z EPS mean.
Compared to the 12Z GEFS, the 12Z EPS is quite a bit slower, which leads to a quite a bit further east mean track similar to how the 0z EPS compared to the 0Z GEFS.
 
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Possible major development: per what I've been seeing with recon, there apparently is a stronger center (~1000 mb) a whopping full degree EAST of the NHC track as well as the non UKMET 12Z model consensus. This is actually very close to where the 12Z UKMET, which is about a full degree east of all of the other major models at 12Z, has it as of 8 PM EDT this evening. Advantage may be going to the 12Z UKMET very shortly here.
 
Can someone answer if Michael will be large, small once in the the gulf? It looks large ATM, so could it have big impacts to the west of the storm as well? Or to early to say.
 
GaWx said:
Possible major development: per what I've been seeing with recon, there apparently is a stronger center (~1000 mb) a whopping full degree EAST of the NHC track as well as the non UKMET 12Z model consensus. This is actually very close to where the 12Z UKMET, which is about a full degree east of all of the other major models at 12Z, has it as of 8 PM EDT this evening. Advantage may be going to the 12Z UKMET very shortly here.
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That could very well happen .I guess for now it's in the error of short term movement since the center will tuck east with the deep convection .
 
hmon_mslp_wind_14L_25.png
So far these 3 short range models are about the same area.
 
GaWx said:
Possible major development: per what I've been seeing with recon, there apparently is a stronger center (~1000 mb) a whopping full degree EAST of the NHC track as well as the non UKMET 12Z model consensus. This is actually very close to where the 12Z UKMET, which is about a full degree east of all of the other major models at 12Z, has it as of 8 PM EDT this evening. Advantage may be going to the 12Z UKMET very shortly here.
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Second verification will happen at noon tomorrow. If its still in the passage, Ukmet and Euro will be leading the direction.
 
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png
Nam is little west also from 12z run..i know it's the Nam and 18z is based off 12z runs. Still, all these that I'm showing is west, but could and will change
 
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