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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Another HH plane is going into Florence and we'll get a center pass shortly. The storm is likely undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle which will only allow the hurricane to expand even further in size with TS force winds trying to extending to the edge of the cirrus canopy.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Another HH plane is going into Florence and we'll get a center pass shortly. The storm is likely undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle which will only allow the hurricane to expand even further in size with TS force winds trying to extending to the edge of the cirrus canopy.
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Webb,
Thank God ... I thought for a second there you said the citrus canopy ... :confused:
 
Oh...74-110
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Webberweather53 said:
Another HH plane is going into Florence and we'll get a center pass shortly. The storm is likely undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle which will only allow the hurricane to expand even further in size with TS force winds trying to extending to the edge of the cirrus canopy.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's TS wind field is huge and I'm surprised they found those winds at the edge of the clouds.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
If that HRWF was correct what would wind look like in north Georgia. I saw some 60mph but could be wrong
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Trying to judge surface winds to upper winds if worked down east parts of state could see gusts in the 80 mph range, north and west 50-60 mph gust sounds possible
 
SD said:
Oh...74-110
c460b1407b8384da2241f8d6f03b0edf.jpg


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What kind of shiznit is that? Must be yesterday’s graphics with today’s time stamp.
 
The longwave pattern over North America and the western Atlantic leading up to Hurricane Betsy in 1965 making a sudden turn from a NW to SW heading east of Florida is actually very similar to what we're going to see w/ Florence near the Carolinas although there are some subtle differences. Yeah the track is unusual but something like this has been observed before.
compday.jN1s2AMlXo.gif

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_namer_6.png

Betsy_1965_track.png
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Kylo said:
Currently Florence is at 28N/68W. The closest of the 12z models was the UK at this time, 0z.


View attachment 6213
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Yep the UKIE is holding its own, though not quite as good as the Euro and HMON for last night's 0z runs. The Euro missed its mark by only 0.1 degrees or 7 miles, while the HMON came in 2nd and missed by 0.2 degrees or 14 miles. Most models came in with a miss of 0.3 to 0.5 degrees, and thought it was interesting they were mostly too far east. Out of all the models the NAVGEM was by far the worst with a miss of 0.8 degrees or 55 miles.
 
SD said:
They just tweeted it, I guess based off the 5pm advisory its not that far fetched

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Yeah, if they’re just blindly using the official track, those graphics are pretty good.
 
Rain Cold said:
Florence is looking like one of those storms who goes from ERC to ERC to ERC. Not going to get to Cat 5, IMO, and we can probably put the annular talk back in the drawer for this one too.
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The one big factor that was against Florence becoming annular is the SSTs in its path are on the high end of the parameter space for annular hurricanes, the BL in the right circumstances akin to days where we have ridiculous amounts of CAPE leading to convective development here at home, can become to some extent almost "uncontrollably" unstable when SSTs start to get above 28C. That's likely part of the reason why most annular hurricanes are in the 26-28C range.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The one big factor that was against Florence becoming annular is the SSTs in its path are on the high end of the parameter space for annular hurricanes, the BL in the right circumstances akin to days where we have ridiculous amounts of CAPE leading to convective development here at home, can become to some extent almost "uncontrollably" unstable when SSTs start to get above 28C. That's likely part of the reason why most annular hurricanes are in the 26-28C range.
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That makes sense. I read the earlier posts about the environmental characteristics, but didn’t want to clog the thread asking a bunch of questions. Thanks for the context!
 
SD said:
Oh...74-110
c460b1407b8384da2241f8d6f03b0edf.jpg


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I think alot of people are just assuming that a stall off of Wilmington would spare Raleigh, but I'd honestly expect the precip field to be pretty expansive to the NW. Also if it stalls right near ILM that is a pretty straight path to steer tropical storm force gusts directly towards the Triangle
 
BHS1975 said:
It’s passing over 30c water now.


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The larger Florence becomes the more the water will be mixed before the eyewall passes over it which limits its theoretical maximum intensity and having larger wind radii means it takes longer for the storm to intensify even if the conditions were favorable.
 
Rain Cold said:
Florence is looking like one of those storms who goes from ERC to ERC to ERC. Not going to get to Cat 5, IMO, and we can probably put the annular talk back in the drawer for this one too.
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It's also had an area of below normal pwats on its south side today so that's probably kept us from seeing a huge CDO and a more aesthetically pleasing storm. It will start moving into an area of higher pwats overnight and tomorrow so the south side of the system will likely fill in and we get a more classic satellite appearance

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