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Pattern September Somnolence

metwannabe said:
As wet as it has been this summer the drought wasn't completely wiped out and looking ahead, this area could begin to expand (especially if the GFS is anywhere close to correct)
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Looks dry, yes, but no one is “setting the woods on fire” so to speak
 
metwannabe said:
As wet as it has been this summer the drought wasn't completely wiped out and looking ahead, this area could begin to expand (especially if the GFS is anywhere close to correct)
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gfs_apcpn_seus_52.png
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Looks about right! The subsidence from the tropical entity over the gulf, will be awesome! I told y’all it’s been dry for some! :(
 
At least the aam will bottom out around 9/5 so we may see the ridge peak in intensity next weekend then begin to break down as we move into mid September.

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SD said:
At least the aam will bottom out around 9/5 so we may see the ridge peak in intensity next weekend then begin to break down as we move into mid September.

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I hope so. If we get to the Sept 15-20 and we're still in relentless 90s, I'm not going to be very thrilled.
 
Maybe we need the 90-95 weather to last into early October like it did in 1986 if you want a nice winter. Most of September and the 1st week of October that year were hot and dry, but then the pattern broke big time and the rest of that fall was cool and wet. The winter of 1986-87 was great, especially the closer to the mountains you were. Not so good from Columbia to Raleigh, but anyone from around Hickory back into the mountains would love it. The NC mountains even had a monster snowstorm in April 1987.
 
Looking at forecasts I've seen for the 1st 2 weeks of Sep for the US as a whole, it looks to be very close to the 30 year mean for hottest two weeks of the year in late July! So, late July is approaching! Get your water or lemonade ready!
 
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JHS said:
Maybe we need the 90-95 weather to last into early October like it did in 1986 if you want a nice winter. Most of September and the 1st week of October that year were hot and dry, but then the pattern broke big time and the rest of that fall was cool and wet. The winter of 1986-87 was great, especially the closer to the mountains you were. Not so good from Columbia to Raleigh, but anyone from around Hickory back into the mountains would love it. The NC mountains even had a monster snowstorm in April 1987.
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Definitely wasn't a bad winter in Raleigh, with about 10-13" of snow & sleet on the season, obviously there was a huge drop off between Greensboro and the Triangle... 5-8" of sleet in mid Feb 1987 oof.
February 16-17 1987 NC Snowmap.gif
February 27 1987 NC Snowmap.gif
 
GaWx said:
Looking at forecasts I've seen for the 1st 2 weeks of Sep for the US as a whole, it looks to be very close to the 30 year mean for hottest two weeks of the year in late July! So, late July is approaching! Get your water or lemonade ready!
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I wonder if that means October will be like August?
 
This ridge over New England and southern Canada would have likely departed later next week, but supertyphoon Jebi is going to help reestablish this ridge in week to and into week 3, so there isn't any legitimate heat relief in sight just yet. Tbh, it's really worrisome to have that feature persist this long in the heart of the hurricane season, it's usually a pattern that favors hurricane landfalls on the US coast. Hopefully we can turn this around before a TC in the MDR takes advantage of it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This ridge over New England and southern Canada would have likely departed later next week, but supertyphoon Jebi is going to help reestablish this ridge in week to and into week 3, so there isn't any legitimate heat relief in sight just yet. Tbh, it's really worrisome to have that feature persist this long in the heart of the hurricane season, it's usually a pattern that favors hurricane landfalls on the US coast. Hopefully we can turn this around before a TC in the MDR takes advantage of it.
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Yeah with the active MDR indicated on models there's a good chance we see at least one of the waves becoming a US threat in September. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see this strong ridging last through most of September before finally breaking down as we near October.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like a horrible winter elsewhere though.
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It was actually one of the best winters of the 1980s in NC overall in terms of combined cold & snow. Much of the piedmont and mountains doubled-tripled their seasonal snowfall averages. It really sucked along/east of I-95 except in the southern coastal plain towards Fayetteville & Lumberton where their snowfall averages are pretty low.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
It was actually one of the best winters of the 1980s in NC overall in terms of combined cold & snow. Much of the piedmont and mountains doubled-tripled their seasonal snowfall, averages. It really sucked along/east of I-95 except in the southern coastal plain towards Fayetteville & Lumberton where their snowfall averages are pretty low.
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I was talking outside of NC. :confused: However Larry answered the part on ATL and it sounds like it was a decent one at least over here. Not sure about SC, TN, or AL.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I was talking outside of NC. :confused: However Larry answered the part on ATL and it sounds like it was a decent one at least over here. Not sure about SC, TN, or AL.
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Overall looked a little better than normal if you look at the entire state of SC. Towards Greenville they got hammered w/ about 12-13" of snow, (mostly in January), Columbia was close to their long-term average w/ 1", further south it was fairly benign.
 
I am amazed at how warm the forecasts are for the next 15 days for the US as a whole and for the NE/Midwest especially. Even the SE gets in on this heat with RDU &
ATL averaging about 5 & 3.5, respectively, warmer than normal 8/31-9/14. Some areas in the Midwest/NE are as much as 8-9 warmer than normal!

Going back to 1950 on a nationally degree day population weighted basis, the forecast I saw is for record warmth by about 1 degree/day averaged out vs the current record warm holder of 2015 and which is as warm as the 30 year normal for July 1-15!!

This also tells me that the forecasted E US ridging to our north could easily be in record strong territory going back to 1950 when looking at 8/31-9/14 as a whole. This would mean the JB “ridge over troubled waters” in overdrive should it verify and merits a very close eye on any TC that happens to be located not too far off the SE coast as it would be in a potentially threatening position to move WNW or NW into the SE US as Webb and others have mentioned.
 
I had some wicked thunderstorms move in around 5:30 last night. These pictures were taken when the storms were about 10 miles south of me. As far as future temps it doesn’t look to good for cooler weather anytime soon. I guess better now then in November when it starts to really count though.

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SD said:
Interesting times ahead hemispherically

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FOURHORSEMEN.jpg


Went down to the mountain, I was drinking some wine
Looked up in the Heaven, Lord, I saw a mighty sign
Written fire across the heaven, plain as black and white
'Get prepared, there's gonna be a party tonight'
Then God way up in Heaven, for whatever it was worth
Thought He'd have a big old party, thought He'd call it Planet Earth
Don't worry about tomorrow, Lord, you'll know it when it comes
When the rock and roll music meets the risin' Planet Sun
 
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Webberweather53 said:
It was actually one of the best winters of the 1980s in NC overall in terms of combined cold & snow. Much of the piedmont and mountains doubled-tripled their seasonal snowfall averages. It really sucked along/east of I-95 except in the southern coastal plain towards Fayetteville & Lumberton where their snowfall averages are pretty low.
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Yep the closer to the mountains and the Virginia border the better it was. Big snowstorms on Jan1, Jan 22, Jan 25, in late Feb, and another in early April. A big sleet storm in the middle of Feb too over much of NC and northwest SC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I was talking outside of NC. :confused: However Larry answered the part on ATL and it sounds like it was a decent one at least over here. Not sure about SC, TN, or AL.
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For GA south of an Atlanta to Athens line and most of Al, Miss, and lower SC it was not a great winter. Not sure about TN though, except in the mountains.
 
GaWx said:
I am amazed at how warm the forecasts are for the next 15 days for the US as a whole and for the NE/Midwest especially. Even the SE gets in on this heat with RDU &
ATL averaging about 5 & 3.5, respectively, warmer than normal 8/31-9/14. Some areas in the Midwest/NE are as much as 8-9 warmer than normal!

Going back to 1950 on a nationally degree day population weighted basis, the forecast I saw is for record warmth by about 1 degree/day averaged out vs the current record warm holder of 2015 and which is as warm as the 30 year normal for July 1-15!!

This also tells me that the forecasted E US ridging to our north could easily be in record strong territory going back to 1950 when looking at 8/31-9/14 as a whole. This would mean the JB “ridge over troubled waters” in overdrive should it verify and merits a very close eye on any TC that happens to be located not too far off the SE coast as it would be in a potentially threatening position to move WNW or NW into the SE US as Webb and others have mentioned.
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I guess the only good thing is that the sun angle is much lower in September than in July and the days are shorter which makes it easier to tolerate the heat and humidity.
 
Just cut my grass real low so the drought and heat will make it go dormant and I will be finished for the year! That almost guarantees I get a storm tomorrow, after nothing for like 14 days straight!:(
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I guess the only good thing is that the sun angle is much lower in September than in July and the days are shorter which makes it easier to tolerate the heat and humidity.
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It could be worse. It could be like 2 years ago when it torched like this in September, and kept torching like the energizer bunny all through the fall and basically all winter. I'm glad that's not happening (I don't think)
 
Got hammered here tonight with rain, some hail, decent 35-45mph winds and sharp lightning for several hours. Radar estimates 2.75” at my house, what a storm!
 
Canada is showing signs of fall... here's the end of tonight's Goofus run, a nice fall front (at least for the Midwest) and a 'cane in the Atlantic. Maybe absorbed into the East coast front, or curving out to the North Atlantic. Who knows.
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Kylo said:
September 2002 SST has some similarities to now and September 2002 was very warm.
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2002 has been thrown around for hurricane season too... was a late peaking season(first hurricane was on September 10th!)

and yes the end of the GFS looks interesting
 
Brent said:
the Euro just brought a hurricane into New Orleans on Wednesday morning

Okay then
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minimal, but yeah... that's interesting.. that part of the gulf is prime for something, according to the NWS.
 
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