Thanks for the link. I studied the DJF forecasts back to 2009-10. I was happy with what I saw. It was colder than last month's near normal apparently due to strengthening El Nino from borderline weak/mod to borderline mod/strong. Here's last month's DJF forecast. which was based on the weaker El Nino:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...80901_temp2m_months46_global_deter_public.png
The Oct. release of a solid 1-2 F colder than normal is the coldest land area on the globe and is the coldest for the E half of the US as a whole since as far back as the 10 years I can see:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...81001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
However, it isn't THE coldest for the SE US, itself, as the SE forecasts for 2015-6 were about as chilly:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...51001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
Note the SLP forecast, which suggests frequent and/or strong W Canadian highs coming SE as well as Miller A Gulf lows going NE over FL and then up off the E coast (perhaps helped out by lingering warm SST anomalies), an exciting combo:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...0181001_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png
Remember that we're in a warming world and I'm assuming these are vs the 30 year average. So, 1-2 colder than normal is significant nowadays. Then again, the last 4 years of forecasts have been dominated by warmer than normal all over the N Hem. The coldest on any land of the globe the last 3 years is only down to 1-2 colder than normal. Despite GW, there still could be a warm bias that was introduced in 2015.
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The bad news for those hoping it is right is that the track record is not so good:
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2009-10 called for a mild SE but it was actually very cold:
grade F
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...91001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.17.43.prcp.png
-
2010-1 called for a mild SE but it was actually cold:
grade F
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...01001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.18.13.prcp.png
-
2011-2 called for a warm SE and it was right this time:
grade A
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...11001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.15.33.prcp.png
-
2012-3 called for near normal SE but it was actually very warm:
grade C
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...21001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.19.35.prcp.png
-
2013-4 called for slightly warmer than normal SE and solidly warm in the Midwest but it was actually near to slightly cooler than normal in the SE (not too far off there) and quite cold in the Midwest (far off there):
grade B for SE, itself
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...31001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.21.34.prcp.png
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2014-5 called for near normal SE and cooler to the NW. It was actually slightly cooler than normal SE and colder to the north..so that was a pretty good forecast overall:
grade B
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...41001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.28.39.prcp.png
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2015-6 called for a cold SE (1-3 colder than normal, the only other UKMET cold SE forecast) along with a correctly forecasted very strong El Nino, but it actually was warm in the SE:
grade F. (However, it did well with its very warm upper Midwest forecast):
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...51001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.36.51.prcp.png
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2016-7 called for slightly warmer than normal SE but it was actually very warm:
grade C
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...61001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.42.34.prcp.png
-
2017-8 called for a warm SE and it was right this time:
grade A
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...71001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.44.30.prcp.png
So, for the SE US, tally is 2 A's, 2 B's, 2 C's, and 3 F's. Average grade for the 9 winters: C. The discouraging thing is that for the one time it called for a cold SE, it was anything but that for them or anywhere nearby (2015-6).
But the encouraging thing is that this chilly 2018-9 forecast is only the 2nd out of the last 10 winters and with the SE being coldest of any land area on the planet. Furthermore, we're heading for a much weaker El Nino than the very strong one of 2015-6. I would have immediately questioned the UKMET's cold 2015-6 SE forecast with it also forecasting a superstrong El Nino as that didn't jibe and I think I then called for near to perhaps only slightly colder than normal. In addition, the Euro, Jamstec, and Pioneer are all chilly,
Finally, the UKMET's SLP forecast suggests a fantastic Miller A type of storm track in combo with frequent and/or strong Arctic highs coming out of NW Canada. The only other UKMET SLP calling for a somewhat similar combo was, you guessed it, its 2015-6 forecast. However, it suggested not as strong nor as Arctic highs:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...0151001_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png