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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

I have to wonder how much weight we can put on this since they rely on a weak to moderate El Nino. I ha.vent been keeping track but aren't we in that time the ENSO possibility of a Nino can decrease, and was it not looking as likely as previously thought? I do agree that September is going to be warm though. Also, the article mentions an increased chance of -NAOs. Anyone see anything that points to this other than ENSO since the article doesn't seem to mention how it's at an increased chance?
 
I have to wonder how much weight we can put on this since they rely on a weak to moderate El Nino. I ha.vent been keeping track but aren't we in that time the ENSO possibility of a Nino can decrease, and was it not looking as likely as previously thought? I do agree that September is going to be warm though. Also, the article mentions an increased chance of -NAOs. Anyone see anything that points to this other than ENSO since the article doesn't seem to mention how it's at an increased chance?
Because we're due..... :cool:
 
I have to wonder how much weight we can put on this since they rely on a weak to moderate El Nino. I ha.vent been keeping track but aren't we in that time the ENSO possibility of a Nino can decrease, and was it not looking as likely as previously thought? I do agree that September is going to be warm though. Also, the article mentions an increased chance of -NAOs. Anyone see anything that points to this other than ENSO since the article doesn't seem to mention how it's at an increased chance?
I'm not sure. I haven't looked at all of the indicators in detail. I'm hoping that the goalposts are narrowing and we can at least rule out a strong Nino and Ninas.
 
DT had some really good info on this on his winter speculation video. Talks about all of the major factors and spends a good bit of time on the QBO.

The early speculation is about as good as it gets for snow chances in many areas. One thing I like to see is December getting cold so the ground temps will drop and snow will stick easier early in the season. Last year may of started the trend for colder Decembers and early storm chances.
 
I have to wonder how much weight we can put on this since they rely on a weak to moderate El Nino. I ha.vent been keeping track but aren't we in that time the ENSO possibility of a Nino can decrease, and was it not looking as likely as previously thought? I do agree that September is going to be warm though. Also, the article mentions an increased chance of -NAOs. Anyone see anything that points to this other than ENSO since the article doesn't seem to mention how it's at an increased chance?

The blog post is betting on ENSO as the driver for the -NAO, which is what most forecasters will rely on. We will either get a weak or moderate El Niño +- modoki type...which lucky for us, all probable scenarios should feature a -NAO (DJF wall-to-wall on average), but especially in February, which is why their forecast is back loaded.
 
My opinion is that with the background Modoki Nino forcing, if Siberian Snowfall is significant in October, it could lead to an early onset of a wintry pattern in December, ala 2009 and 2010. My thoughts on Siberian Snowfall have certainly evolved over the past 5 years or so, but I still believe in the mechanisms behind it -- especially for the first half of winter -- and especially if there are other large scale forcings such as the QBO and ENSO that are also having negative inputs on the polar vortex.
Last December was also nice especially with the early snow storm. Maybe we are trending towards colder Decembers now which would be great.
 
Last December was also nice especially with the early snow storm. Maybe we are trending towards colder Decembers now which would be great.
IMO, I would rather have a warm December, sacrifice it, if you will. There is rarely a winter with DJF are cold so you know there’s going to be a warmer pattern set up at some point, like last year’s February. I’d rather have the heart of winter in Jan/Feb, toss December! Just my 2 cents
 
IMO, I would rather have a warm December, sacrifice it, if you will. There is rarely a winter with DJF are cold so you know there’s going to be a warmer pattern set up at some point, like last year’s February. I’d rather have the heart of winter in Jan/Feb, toss December! Just my 2 cents
Well if that means the last week or so of December is at least seasonal I'm good with that too.
 
This is from Accuweather.

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IMO, I would rather have a warm December, sacrifice it, if you will. There is rarely a winter with DJF are cold so you know there’s going to be a warmer pattern set up at some point, like last year’s February. I’d rather have the heart of winter in Jan/Feb, toss December! Just my 2 cents
I like a cold December and at least the first part of January. I can sacrifice a bit of January and a week of February as long as the rest of February turns cold.
 
I like a cold December and at least the first part of January. I can sacrifice a bit of January and a week of February as long as the rest of February turns cold.
Large snows are rare in Dec for Raleigh so I’m wondering why you want it cold and you’re willing to sacrifice time in Jan and Feb? Lol. Man. I would sacrifice the entire month of Dec for a cold J-F. As long as it’s cold on Christmas I don’t really care about the first 3 weeks.




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Large snows are rare in Dec for Raleigh so I’m wondering why you want it cold and you’re willing to sacrifice time in Jan and Feb? Lol. Man. I would sacrifice the entire month of Dec for a cold J-F. As long as it’s cold on Christmas I don’t really care about the first 3 weeks.




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Heck, if it was 75 on Christmas but had a 6 inch snowstorm in January, I would still call it a winter.
 
I'd like to see one huge storm in January, followed by two weeks of tundra weather... Then bookend the winter with record warm. Be nice to see a March 93 like snowstorm hit in January around here. I don't need 2 feet, but how about 12 inches, and a week of sub freezing highs and lows around -5 to 5 above for a few nights? Not too much to ask is it?
 
Large snows are rare in Dec for Raleigh so I’m wondering why you want it cold and you’re willing to sacrifice time in Jan and Feb? Lol. Man. I would sacrifice the entire month of Dec for a cold J-F. As long as it’s cold on Christmas I don’t really care about the first 3 weeks.




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Because I’m Rain Cold and that’s just the way it is! :)

I love a cold December. Gets me in the mood for Christmas and the winter season. And truth be told, we always sacrifice some of January and/or February anyway. And more truth be told, my wishes have little bearing on what happens anyway, much to my chagrin. :( But as long as we’re awishin’, how bout we take December-March and make it 4 months of cold and snow?! That’s a dream I could get behind!
 
Because I’m Rain Cold and that’s just the way it is! :)

I love a cold December. Gets me in the mood for Christmas and the winter season. And truth be told, we always sacrifice some of January and/or February anyway. And more truth be told, my wishes have little bearing on what happens anyway, much to my chagrin. :( But as long as we’re awishin’, how bout we take December-March and make it 4 months of cold and snow?! That’s a dream I could get behind!
Your dream is much like a Weak Nino composite and we’re headed that way.


Hopefully it’s a weak El Niño
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And not a Moderate
9a9c37aa45a9347db3a9cd1787b457ca.png


Feb will be rocking AND you’d get your cold December.
e6359e93e23abf0d4d62c53735eae352.png


DJF
bac1d5af5edf80b3f06344a3aa065afb.png


March
76e4752d083d0de532e03b43417a9565.png

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