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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

whatalife said:
Why trust models this far out when they can’t even get Day 7 right...


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True! People love seasonal because they feel like it’s a crystal ball. They’re fun to see when they predict an awesome winter (like the euro seasonal) but it’s basically for fun this far out.


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Jon said:
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So are we going to see people hype the new JAMSTEC? My guess is no...

Remember this is the one from last month..
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Lesson here is lead times matter. 4-5 months out is no good. The CFSv2 usually struggles a month out and doesn’t get a hint until the last week of a monthly prediction. Our models are simply not good yet for seasonal forecasts.
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Thanks for posting, Jon. Do you have a link to this? I want to see if there’s also an updated ENSO prediction. I looked around at the JAMSTEC site and saw no predictions from August for some reason. Maybe it went El Niño before and no longer is?? Admittedly, this isn’t good news from my perspective as I had already touted JAMSTEC to Phil as being decent for a seasonal model and really feel that way. I’d be a hypocrite if I now said to ignore this, especially with it being a month closer to DJF. Has the updated Euro come out? I know that Eurosip doesn’t go that far out for air temperatures.
 
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GaWx said:
Thanks for posting, Jon. Do you have a link to this? I want to see if there’s also an updated ENSO prediction. I looked around at the JAMSTEC site and saw no predictions from August for some reason. Maybe it went El Niño before and no longer is?? Admittedly, this isn’t good news from my perspective as I had already touted JAMSTEC to Phil as being decent for a seasonal model and really feel that way. I’d be a hypocrite if I now said to ignore this, especially with it being a month closer to DJF. Has the updated Euro come out? I know that Eurosip doesn’t go that far out for air temperatures.
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Larry - no worries, the JAMSTEC isn’t as bad as others, it’s just not good this far out. I got to this months maps a bit early as usually they post around the 20th, basically they should update their ENSO post early next week. I just check their site at the bottom to see if the model has updated.

The updated euro seasonal comes out on the 11th of each month and that is freely available on weather.us (for now)

I would wait a little for this nino to get going before trusting them atm (I know SSTs are built into seasonals and show nino, but it’s like trusting a hurricane model track or intensity before the tropical storm forms...to me at least)

The JAMSTEC still has a nino but definitely is a tad weaker

July forecast
0b79cc61e834d2481e05315cd7be8ca1.gif

August
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And modoki actually decreased

July
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August
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I wonder what this pattern will bring to the Triangle as far as winter storms.

A) Nothing at all

B) A bunch of little storms

C) One or two big storms

D) A mix of some smaller storms and one or two big dogs
 
Jon said:
True! People love seasonal because they feel like it’s a crystal ball. They’re fun to see when they predict an awesome winter (like the euro seasonal) but it’s basically for fun this far out.
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Yep at this point the seasonal models aren't useful for much other than entertainment purposes. The CFS usually does a decent job if you look at it for the last day of the month to see what it shows for the next month but that's about it. Outside of that the seasonal models have a pretty strong warm bias so long term lead times several months in advance even can be way off.

Here's a good example from the NMME model. Here is the April run for July of this year compared with the actual temperature anomalies.
nmme_T2ma_global_3.png


Notice the CANSIPS model also completely missed the boat and was way too warm for many areas. The Arctic cooling, cold Greenland and Siberia were key areas all missed by the climate models even just a few months out.
cansips_T2ma_global_4.png


Now compare that with what actually happened.
ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_072018.png
 
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old-farmers-almanac-winter-2019-twsnow-forecast-1000x678.jpg
am I missing something here? I though El NINO brings cold to the SE?
 
Brick Tamland said:
I wonder what this pattern will bring to the Triangle as far as winter storms.

A) Nothing at all

B) A bunch of little storms

C) One or two big storms

D) A mix of some smaller storms and one or two big dogs
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E.) no snow for south wake
 
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