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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Cary_Snow95 said:
CMC has the same weak system but steers it into Florida
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No wonder
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Storm5 said:
Big spread on the 12z gefs . Of course this is all post day 11 and most are turning NE
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I'm still not yet that worried about a potential deep SE US hit (say MYR south) based on the recent pattern of troughiness, the more reliable model consensus (that excludes the Crazy Uncle CMC), and the longterm climo of few hits in July despite the average recurving latitude being pretty far north and recurving longitude being pretty far west in July as noted by Eric. But I'm still watching.
 
Be that as it may, the 12 Euro as of day 3.5 is further south and stronger vs the 0Z Euro, 12Z GFS, and 12Z CMC fwiw. Also, the 12 UKMET gets it to the NE Caribbean. That is one of the more reliable models.
 
GaWx said:
I'm still not yet that worried about a potential deep SE US hit (say MYR south) based on the recent pattern of troughiness, the more reliable model consensus (that excludes the Crazy Uncle CMC), and the longterm climo of few hits in July despite the average recurving latitude being pretty far north and recurving longitude being pretty far west in July as noted by Eric. But I'm still watching.
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I agree. I still say this favors a recurve . Now could it get to close for comfort ? Of course it could. Good news is it's almost unanimous that this is gonna be a slow process regardless of track . It was nice seeing the Gfs come back to reality with strength


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By day 9 the ridge has set up shop and its being forced west extremely slowly . More of a stall Well, what's left of it
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