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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Storm5 said:
A weaker disorganized system like the 12z euro has the best chance of getting close to land . Anything remotely strong goes out to see unless the ridge builds in a little faster and it gets forced underneath and west which would be possible but not likely



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Unless you get a faster system like the CMC, or a late strengthening. Hoping for a miss or weak system.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Unless you get a faster system like the CMC, or a late strengthening. Hoping for a miss or weak system.
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True but if ( which I don't believe ) your gonna get a well develop system like the Gfs is showing it would have to start getting much better organized over the next three days or so . If it fails to do so we most likely end up with a weak wave like the euro is showing . This won't be a system that meanders around stays weak for a long time then blows up . It's all or nothing


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18z gefs says we fish
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^ It isn't like I don't care about fish, but good! They can handle it way, way better than I can! No more Matthews anytime soon, please, Actually, I'm not really worried about it at this point based on July storm history, which has been tame overall other than very rare exceptions going back several hundred years.
 
GaWx said:
^ It isn't like I don't care about fish, but good! They can handle it way, way better than I can! No more Matthews anytime soon, please, Actually, I'm not really worried about it at this point based on July storm history, which has been tame overall other than very rare exceptions going back several hundred years.
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+ 100 "Likes" !
 
Storm5 said:
18z gefs says we fish
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yeah, by the skin of our teeth. Given the canonical mid level height bias in the GEFS suite, I wouldnt be so quick to throw the fish label on this even if it developed and became strong especially given how far west this guidance already is. Seen innumerable examples with considerably larger adjustments in the medium range vs the differential between direct impacts on the US coast vs current GEFS solution...
 
GaWx said:
^ It isn't like I don't care about fish, but good! They can handle it way, way better than I can! No more Matthews anytime soon, please, Actually, I'm not really worried about it at this point based on July storm history, which has been tame overall other than very rare exceptions going back several hundred years.
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However it's worth noting here that the Azores-Bermuda high typically reaches it's climatological peak in terms of strength and meridional juxtaposition wrt the equator in July, thus meaning that of the storms that do develop in the Atlantic given the same general parameters as in other points of the season, a larger proportion of long-lived/long-tracked TCs in the Atlantic hit landmasses further west at this time of the year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
yeah, by the skin of our teeth. Given the canonical mid level height bias in the GEFS suite, I wouldnt be so quick to throw the fish label on this even if it developed and became strong especially given how far west this guidance already is. Seen innumerable examples with considerably larger adjustments in the medium range vs the differential between direct impacts on the US coast vs current GEFS solution...
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I wasn't throwing the fish label on the system itself . I was just pointing out the 18z gefs solution . Didn't know about the bias it had , that's interesting .

I find it funny that in the weather community all the talk the last few days has been about the Gfs and gefs with people completely ignoring the euro and eps which do nothing with the wave . If you scroll through twitter it's all GfS


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Storm5 said:
I wasn't throwing the fish label on the system itself . I was just pointing out the 18z gefs solution . Didn't know about the bias it had , that's interesting .

I find it funny that in the weather community all the talk the last few days has been about the Gfs and gefs with people completely ignoring the euro and eps which do nothing with the wave . If you scroll through twitter it's all GfS


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The GFS and its ensemble suite are notorious for breaking down mid-upper level ridges way too quickly (as we recently observed with Cindy when they consistently tried taking it near or just off the SE US coast) especially when a TC is out in the eastern Atlantic, you'll certainly find more cases where a TC verifies west vs east of the GEFS suite in the medium-LR. EPS probabilities have steadily increased for 94L at least up thru today following in suit w/ the GEFS and GFS operational models... Not to mention the GEFS also correctly sniffed out Bret in advance of the EPS, and while some note that the GFS tends to produce a higher false alarm rate wrt eastern Atlantic TCs in recent hindcast experiments vs other global NWP models, this may not be the case this year given how favorable the seasonal background state is for TCG in the eastern Atlantic
 
From WSI . GEFS is all aboard . The EPS is standing with its bag at the station
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Webberweather53 said:
However it's worth noting here that the Azores-Bermuda high typically reaches it's climatological peak in terms of strength and meridional juxtaposition wrt the equator in July, thus meaning that of the storms that do develop in the Atlantic given the same general parameters as in other points of the season, a larger proportion of long-lived/long-tracked TCs in the Atlantic hit landmasses further west at this time of the year.
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Good point. Related to this, I learned years ago that the average recurvature latitude by month is about as follows: June near 28N, July and August near 30N, Sept. near 28N, and Oct. near 25N.
 
Should be interesting to see if the GEFS or EPS longwave pattern over eastern North America is correct. The trend thus far this summer has been for troughing near the east coast to intensify and heights to rise over the Rockies more akin to what the GEFS shows as verification approaches, however either forecast is very precarious for the US east coast and southeastern US, and it wouldn't take much for the outlet to the NE of presumably where 94L would be towards Atlantic Canada to close completely and be replaced by a rapidly rebuilding ridge of high pressure that bridges the Atlantic Canada and Rockies ridges. It's also very rare to see such sharp recurvature to the NE OTS this early in the season as the GFS implies because the AB high is so strong in July... Hence, aside from canonical GEFS mid level height biases & of course the extreme intensification many ensemble members depict in the SW Atlantic, I'm a bit skeptical of its OTS solution atm...
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Up to 10/70. Looks like the models all have the system now, but the Euro isn't strong like the CMS and HIS. What the models show is:
CMC- strong TS close to the East coast.
GFS- strong hurricane fish spinner.
ECMWF- weak and near the CMC relatively.
NAVGEM- weak and into the Carribean.
 
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