• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Outflow boundaries are apparent on both sides of 94L atm even in the moist monsoon southwesterly flow to its south, indicative of large-scale sinking/stable air in its surrounding environment which is significantly attributable to the passage of the suppressed phase of the MJO... It's still quite amazing we even have a legitimate chance of development given the unfavorable intraseasonal forcing and climatology.
Screen Shot 2017-07-04 at 4.57.38 PM.png
 
Im really not sure what in the hell the NHC is waiting for but Im pretty sure 94L is at least a tropical depression atm. Im sorry but tropical wave axes rarely have consolidated moderate-deep, consistently pulsating convection like this for nearly 24 hours, not to mention there was a low-level swirl on visible satellite yesterday that was quickly covered by convection last night during diurnal maximum...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Im really not sure what in the hell the NHC is waiting for but Im pretty sure 94L is at least a tropical depression atm. Im sorry but tropical wave axes rarely have consolidated moderate-deep, consistently pulsating convection like this for nearly 24 hours, not to mention there was a low-level swirl on visible satellite yesterday that was quickly covered by convection last night during diurnal maximum...
Click to expand...
They probably aren't doing anything because they think it won't develop into anything or it "Isn't developed". Honestly when they begin dropping chances of cyclone formation that pretty much puts the last nail in the coffin for the system for now at least.

It does look healthy though, so I have no idea why it isn't at least a PTC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
They probably aren't doing anything because they think it won't develop into anything or it "Isn't developed". Honestly when they begin dropping chances of cyclone formation that pretty much puts the last nail in the coffin for the system for now at least.

It does look healthy though, so I have no idea why it isn't at least a PTC.
Click to expand...

Potential tropical cyclones are only designated if a tropical disturbance poses an immediate threat to a landmass (don't worry this tripped me up for a second as well)... However, yes I don't understand why they've lowered the chances when the organization has only improved throughout the day and given the recent ASCAT pass which showed a closed, but a zonally oblong circulation with a lot of earth relative westerly winds to the south, it's very close to becoming a tropical cyclone, especially if organizational trends continue
 
023756_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Tropical Depression Four certainly looks similar to the precursor to Tropical Storm Ana (2009) (Tropical Depression Two) with a low-level circulation near the eastern edge of a moderate-deep sheared, circular, symmetrical CDO, although Four doesn't look quite as sheared as Two (2009) did due to its slower forward movement...
collage-2017-07-06.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Tropical Depression Four certainly looks similar to the precursor to Tropical Storm Ana (2009) (Tropical Depression Two) with a low-level circulation near the eastern edge of a moderate-deep sheared, circular, symmetrical CDO, although Four doesn't look quite as sheared as Two (2009) did due to its slower forward movement...
View attachment 656
Click to expand...
.Is it possible it can become a TS?
 
Basing off of the current situation, the Euro appears to be in the lead for winning, since it kept a weak system, but if it strengthens later on, or surprises us, another model will win, for long range at least. Short range right now is the HWRF.
 
Doesn't look that bad right now, but it could look better. Probably surviving because it is pulling moisture from the south with the dry air in front of it countering it. If it was dry to the south, this system would be dissipated.
GANIMSNtAjR30.jpg
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
The CMC actually tried to do that the other day as well
Click to expand...
Interesting NHC takes note of what the UKMET is showing as well.... keep one eye on that possibility

There is one important caveat to note and
that is the UKMET model, which continues to show less weakening and
even strengthening in 96 and 120 h when the system is approaching
the Bahamas. Although the other global and regional models do not
show regeneration at this time, they do however show similar
improving upper-level wind conditions east of Florida by 120 h. For
now, the official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous
advisory and the consensus model IVCN through 48 h, after which the
forecast is lower than the intensity consensus.
 
Just started looking at this one. With the path it is showing now, definitely have to keep an eye on it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top