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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Storm5 said:
I'm not . Just pointing out that run . I for one hope we get something like the 12z euro . At least it would be interesting


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I bet the 18Z GFS will provide plenty of interest later in an hour. I am sure we will see another 980mb low or stronger on that run just because its the 18Z. The real test is the next 3 days in runs, because that will determine if we could look at a stronger or weaker system.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I bet the 18Z GFS will provide plenty of interest later in an hour. I am sure we will see another 980mb low or stronger on that run just because its the 18Z. The real test is the next 3 days in runs, because that will determine if we could look at a stronger or weaker system.
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Our system looks like it's gonna deal With some drier air over the next 36 hours or so. Will be interesting to see what it looks like Wednesday into Thursday

I sold out on a weaker system yesterday. At least it's something to track regardless

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The spread on this is just crazy.
94L_tracks_latest.png
 
Pretty big shift south . Most take it to tropical storm strength briefly

Edit : not really a shift south just a little more agreement which tightens the 00z set
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94L's odds for TCG have skyrocketed to 70/80 after a recent ASCAT pass revealed a closed, yet slightly elongated circulation. Even a slight increase in organization would result in a tropical depression...
Screen Shot 2017-07-04 at 4.12.44 AM.png
 
The aforementioned ASCAT pass shows a fully closed, well defined circulation with 94L embedded within the monsoon trough, it's just a little broad atm... Again, it wouldn't take much at all for this to become Tropical Depression Four and/or Tropical Storm Don.

Screen Shot 2017-07-04 at 4.16.38 AM.png
 
Notice, 94L is pulled further west 6zgfs because of how weak it is.
 
If you ask me this has good potential to be a close call for the SE coast with the weekend trough lifting out and the next loading in the lakes there might be ebbing ridging to force it west

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This distance tool on Levi's site is absolutely fantastic... Using 94L as an example you can take any TC vortex hold shift and measure the distance at any time step from the TC or other area of interest to any point on earth. It's friggin cool...

Screen Shot 2017-07-04 at 10.54.57 AM.png


He's also implemented another tool that allows for area averaged soundings that would essentially allow you to adequately sample the environment directly over and surrounding any TC, including being able to gauge upper level shear, moisture/RH, etc. as opposed to using singular vortex points which are susceptible to considerable noise often unrelated to the environment itself.

Here's one for the GFS at 66hr for 94L...

gfs_2017070406_fh66_sounding_51.20W,44.92W,12.69N,18.15N.png
 
Interaction between 94L and a PVS (potential vorticity streamer) (indicated by the string of deeper yellow and red colors associated with a mid-latitude trough in the 355K potential vorticity surface image below) emanating from a equatorward cyclonic rossby wave breaking event over the western Atlantic will likely induce unfavorable upper level westerly wind shear over 94L once it passes north of the Greater Antilles late this week and into this weekend, and the further north 94L travels, the more interaction that's liable to occur w/ this PVS. Thus, 94L will have a 72-96 hr window for intensification before conditions become unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and intensification. Equatorward rossby wave breaking here in the western Atlantic isn't surprising given passage of a suppressed MJO regime. Anomalous upper level westerly winds in the wake of a suppressed MJO regime allow for effective mid latitude RW propagation into the tropics by enhancing upper level westerly wind ducts that ultimately allow these RWs to conserve more angular momentum and therefore penetrate deeper into the tropics and subtropics (& occasionally even across the equator and into the other hemisphere!). Increasing RW penetration in the tropics increases the probability for the appearance of PVSs and unfavorable upper level wind shear in the Atlantic, along with large-scale subsidence/sinking, dry air, and decreasing in lower level relative vorticity that also accompanies the passage of a convectively suppressed phase of the MJO or a CCKW...

gfs_pv355K_atl_15.png
 
ukm2.2017071100.168.lant.troplant.n850.fcst.gentracker.png

Really not buying this scenario (at least not yet anyways) but worth mentioning that the UKMET re-intensifies 94L after day 5, implying that 94L's interaction w/ this PVS is limited, at least enough to allow it to remain intact enough to take advantage of what appears to be at least a marginal environment in the SW Atlantic. Verbatim still looks a little too close to call for the SE US and eastern seaboard...
 
12z Gfs basically washes out the system NE of the Bahamas.

12z euro has an extremely weak wave in the Bahamas days 8-10


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