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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Webberweather53, Jun 27, 2017.

  1. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    A strong tropical wave axis currently centered over the Ivory Coast and Mali will emerge from the African coast sometime tomorrow and may develop into a tropical cyclone before a robust tropical upper tropospheric trough, spurred in part by the recurvature of the remnants of tropical cyclone Cindy further upstream, will induce increasing upper level westerly wind shear that's liable to rip any storm that develops apart. This is incredible given that there's a suppressed CCKW passing over this portion of the basin atm and it's still June... Although Bret by itself probably served as a harbinger of an active season ahead, development of yet another TC in this portion of the basin so early in the hurricane season likely says this season seriously means business. We've never seen two tropical cyclones form east of the Antilles before July...
    Keep in mind, we usually only see a TC in June once every other season, having 3 in the month would be extremely unusual...

    Screen Shot 2017-06-27 at 4.10.15 AM.png
    Screen Shot 2017-06-27 at 5.07.00 AM.png
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2017
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  2. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    As quickly as it had a chance for TCG, it's been taken away and the NHC expects no development from this over the next 5 days. Passage of a suppressed CCKW likely has a lot to do with that
     
  3. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Since this is the same system, Might as well post this here. It's now up to 10/40. [​IMG]
     
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  4. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Good current model comparison out to day 7 (link below) - some of them are showing something (use the buttons up top to compare). This will update with future runs and can be found in Wiki, as well ... ;)

    https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
     
  5. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    NOOOOOOooooooo ... Damit ... NOOOOOOooooooo

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    NOOOOOOOOOOO. I will be in Cape Canaveral that day. Not getting a cat 3...
     
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  7. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Do not like at all (despite the 2 weeks) - reminds me too much of some runs in years gone by ... way too much ...


    We need Webb on this btw ...
     
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  8. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    No. Not happening. I fear the weenies will smell this...[​IMG]
     
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  9. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    present company excluded?

    i trust ...
     
  10. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    I am talking about the hypecasters, or ones who don't know how to handle information. Basically anyone who says that this is coming and it is definite. It is concerning seeing this many runs with a storm. I think it is way too early to get something that strong. Remember, it's the 18Z, it will blow stuff out of proportion.
     
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  11. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Trends scare me ... as well they should ... this is not a one run aberration ... by any means ... but it is a good 2 weeks plus out ... we'll see ... but when down here ... well, you get my drift ...

    Carry on ... :cool:
     
  12. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Ensemble support = bad. Only gives it more likelyhood. They diverge more as they get beyond there.
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Hahah yeah just a little spread [​IMG]


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  14. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Folks - anything, if anything, is a real long, long way off.
    But, and with more than a bit of caution - remember that although less than anywhere near foolproof, the GFS nailed Hermine and Matthew real early on last year ...
    Worth watching ...
    Now to BBQ chicken, corn bread, coleslaw and all the rest ... :cool:
    Worth eating and it's not a ways off ... :p


    http://www.southernwx.com/community...n-atlantic-tc-development-don.203/#post-32791
     
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  15. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    FWIW the 12z EPS wants no part in what the GFS wants to do


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  16. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    With Webb expertise on this season, and ealry storms forming, I say anything is possible at this point
     
  17. Cary_Snow95

    Cary_Snow95 Member

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    12z GFS looks to be up to some mischief..
    Already down to 1004 mb @ 162 hours. Very similar to yesterday's 18z run
     
  18. Cary_Snow95

    Cary_Snow95 Member

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  19. Cary_Snow95

    Cary_Snow95 Member

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    Here's the end of the 12z CMC run...
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Unfortunately and fortunately, it is trending stronger. Bad because of obvious reasons, but good because the stronger it is later on, or between the Bahamas and Antilles, the more it will recurve out to sea. High placement will be key also.
     
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  21. Cary_Snow95

    Cary_Snow95 Member

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    Yeah this 12z run curves out to sea
     
  22. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Uh oh, CMC is all aboard the GFS... [​IMG]
     
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  23. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Time to see what the Doc has to say.


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  24. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    I personally am putting far more stock into the GFS and CMC than the Euro so far. The Euro is a bit slow this year, which is weird since the CMC and GFS are supposed to be worse. If the system does form, I will give the long range win to the GFS. If not, the Euro gets it.
     
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  25. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    No argument here. Just meant at the time the Doc was now running.


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  26. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    By and large, the GFS did great last year ... FWIW
     
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  27. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    Not always true, it is possible that the stronger system pumps the Ridge to the north and gets farther west
     
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  28. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    If you look at the CMC and GFS, the ridge is centered way up Northeast, much closer to Europe than America. In this case, the low would be drawn away from land IF a system pushed it out. In the CMC, no system pushes it out, but on the GFS it does. If the system veers further south early on and scrapes the Caribbean Islands, it would likely head for Florida, but if it is drawn northward more early on, it will be pulled north. Yes, systems don't always get pulled north, but in this case, if it strengthens faster, it will. If it holds off, it won't.

    Meanwhile, the system is up to 50% for the next 5 days. I am sure an invest will form by Tuesday.
     
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  29. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    12z gefs favors a fish [​IMG]


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  30. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    12z euro ensembles are not interested . Not even remotely


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