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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

Holy Cow and other statistical animals ...

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Maybe we need a thread for today's threat.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Areas affected...Extreme eastern GA...SC...western NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 231707Z - 231900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across SC and western NC into
the mid-afternoon hours. Tornado watch will likely be issued by
18-19z to account for this threat.
 
Ended up with 1.72" of rain here. Way off from the original 3.2" forecast, but still welcome rain for sure! Holding in the middle 60s now with peeks of sun at times. Looking forward to the cooler weather this week! GFS sure has been consistent with upper 20s here Sunday Night.... will be interesting to see if it comes to fruition.
 
TDS around Woodruff,SC :(
 
Another storm near Gaffney , tornado warned and two seperate rotations
 
My predicted 2 day rain event , is now not even 10 hours! :(
Starts after sunrise and ends by 3-4 pm! It's gonna have to rain awfully hard to get my 3+ inches of rain!
#BUMMER
1.1 total, better than nothing, but still a bust, with models showing 3+
 
Dang, I love seeing the O line charging south east. There is just no better time of year for me than when the O line is visiting :) And some good fronts come with it. Got a solid 1 1/2 this morning and I was out in it on I 75. Don't think I'll be doing that again. I like an adreniline rush same as the next guy, but I'd rather get it sledding by that bridge abutment, than driving rain blind on an Interstate hwy.. near the big, sprawling city monster.
 
The 00z Gfs still looking like it's trying to break the pattern after next weekend's cold shot. There's really 3 shots then to this 'colder spell', one each progressively stronger... so it's going to almost even out the mean temps here in CHA by the end of OCT. Still, think the month will avg. slightly above. The main difference we're seeing this year compared to last is way more variation in the flow. Hopefully this pattern repeats a couple times in the DJF time frame. Almost assures someone in the SE gets a decent snowstorm and periods of cold, unlike last year.
 
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