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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

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Man those signals right before Halloween. It's actually getting closer in time.:eek:

Not the snow but more the cold dump
 
Storm5 said:
Omgd.....
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ForsythSnow said:
Well that was fast. I just mentioned the hype train was about to get a conductor. Looks like someone beat the normal conductor to the engine LOL.
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Lmao!!! Thanks for the laugh! Idk about u guys, but i am definitely not opposed to having a super warm/dry winter so all these NE US weenies would shut up for a while. Even if we get shutout, nothing is more gratifying than to have a front row seat to watch NE US weenies cliff jump after getting a ---- inch or less all winter...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lmao!!! Thanks for the laugh! Idk about u guys, but i am definitely not opposed to having a super warm/dry winter so all these NE US weenies would shut up for a while. Even if we get shutout, nothing is more gratifying than to have a front row seat to watch NE US weenies cliff jump after getting a ---- inch or less all winter...
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A better burn would be a very cold but very dry winter. With every storm opportunity getting suppressed to hell.

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Webberweather53 said:
Lmao!!! Thanks for the laugh! Idk about u guys, but i am definitely not opposed to having a super warm/dry winter so all these NE US weenies would shut up for a while. Even if we get shutout, nothing is more gratifying than to have a front row seat to watch NE US weenies cliff jump after getting a ---- inch or less all winter...
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I wouldn't mind seeing Boston get under 10 inches

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pcbjr said:
Do not like Halloween snow, FWIW --- mucks up the rest of winter, generally ... o_O
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Yeah your right, although i remember as a kid when Halloween was cold and parts of the southeast would see some snow up towards north Bama into mountains. Back then when Halloween was cold, the whole winter would be cold as well. I guess that was the norm back then.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I really do not understand the physical mechanism (if there is one) linking weak MJO amplitude to lower probability of BN temperatures at least here in the SE US and thus Im skeptical of this claim and assume it's probably an artifact of the data unless more work is done, esp wrt cross-validation with other MJO indices. Several questions immediately come to mind that question the validity of your argument, namely:
A) Again, what's the physical mechanism or phenomena that can bridge this link you're asserting exists between MJO amplitude and temperature anomalies in the SE US? If there is none, then you can't disprove what you're observing may be merely an artifact of the data or is happening by random chance.
B) The inherent construction of the RMM MJO means it is far from a perfect measure of the phenomena and anything but, and often times Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves, Equatorial Rossby Waves, TD Type Waves/Tropical Cyclones, Monsoon gyres, and even ENSO can create spectral leakage, effectively meaning that these phenomena often are as falsely projected onto the RMM's leading principal components of OLR, U850, & U200 as an "MJO wave" when in reality, it's actually not an MJO wave, and the RMM index is very notorious for this because these quantities are unfiltered unlike the OMI and VPM... Henceforth, the question arises, how much of the time is the RMM index actually measuring a true MJO wave and how does this compare w/ other MJO indices, and what impact would this "bad" data have on your results (if any)?
C) What impact will the warming background climate have on the viability of your results, and how much is this actually contributing to your results? (i.e. for example, let's hypothetically say there's more MJO amplitude later in the record esp post mortem early-mid 1990s then this could skew the data w/ amplitude warmer because there are more strong MJO events later in the record and vis versa)
D) What are the sensitivity of your results to things like the QBO, ENSO, PDO, AMO, (etc), and utilization of MJO tracers such as OLR, U200, U850, & VP200 (among others)?

"If we can get a weak La Nina with MJO mainly inside or barely outside the circle for DJF, then the chance for a warm winter would be low."
Is it really safe to assume this here especially given a) warming background climate/persistence, b) bias towards +NAO last several years (& this was evident during the warmer climate of the medieval warm period), c) random variability/lurking variables (?), thus even if you were able to back this up with historical data, it still may not be a valid at all because there was no apparent dynamical adjustment for the aforementioned factors (among many others) which will inherently skew the data against the historical "grain" towards a warmer winter here in the SE US

Sorry for the interrogation here, but these are the kinds of questions and feedback I often observe on a day-to-day basis in academia and it's the ability to answer questions like these that allows one to make the leap of faith from research confined the blogosphere to academia and builds confidence in your peers...
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I'll get back to you on this as I need a good bit of time to go further. I've done only January (using KATL as a proxy for the SE US) and had originally been using Jan as a proxy for winter as a whole since I had done only Jan in great detail. For Jan., every phase of it was colder when inside the circle vs outside averaged out (by 3-6 F..so it wasn't even close for any phase). I now want to add Dec and Feb and see how well this pattern holds. I don't have the time to do what I did for Jan, when I went day by day for several decades and analyzed KATL temp.'s vs MJO phase, including amplitude. I need to find another way to do Dec and Feb.

Last winter I studied phase 8 in Feb (KATL), and it actually suggested that outside the circle averaged colder than inside for phase 8 here:

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/february-discussion-part-ii.110/page-9#post-15986

So, to be honest, I'm already suspecting that at least Feb won't hold up as well as Jan.
 
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