Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

[SD]

But wait, the end of October, Early November, gonna be cold! JB and DT told me!

You can add SD to that too. I'm not sure that it's a look that will bring widespread frost freeze conditions but it's really the first time we have seen a pattern that could bring below normal to normal temps to the region for more than a day or 2 in a while. It's also a look that could bring a decent amount of precip. The eps has a large spike in qpf between d10 and 15

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[Snowfan]

Lol

.:weenie:

 

[Arcc]

I feel like I'm the only one who's not all doom and gloom about the long-range, especially winter. Like I know the past two winters haven't been so great but I feel like the upcoming winter will be better than the last two, and as for the current pattern. Things will change, I have faith.

I'm never doom and gloom when it comes to winter unless it's 40's and rain every few days. Besides the winter can be 10F above normal and if we get a board wide '11 event, no one will mind.

 

[GaWx]

Imo, it is way too early to be either doom and gloom or optimistic about the winter though no time was too early to be optimistic that this winter would be significantly colder than the ridiculously warm 16-17. Statistics, alone, tell us that.
If we end up with weak La Niña, historical stats actually give an average chance for cold, near normal, and mild for the SE as a whole...so near normal in that case would be a good best guess. I hope it doesn't go as strong as moderate Niña.

 

[GaWx]

Sometimes patterns can lock into place for several months (like 99-00, last year, and potentially this year). There is not a strong correlation either way between what the Fall (or Summer) is like versus what Winter is like. November 2014 was cold but Winter 14-15 was cold and as well overall.

The mother of all locking cold periods in the SE US likely was from May of 1976 through Feb of 1977, when every month was 4 or more colder than normal at KATL!! Within that period, 3 months were 7 or more colder than normal! Wintry precip, however, was actually below normal there due to dominating NW very cold but dry flow though snow was way, way above normal at places like the coastal SE US and most of FL.

 

[pcbjr]

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm never doom and gloom when it comes to winter unless it's 40's and rain every few days. Besides the winter can be 10F above normal and if we get a board wide '11 event, no one will mind.

Agree, heck it's not going to stay below average but I'm pretty happy with what the October slate looks like for the rest of the month because it's not going to get well above average. It's so late that average-above average just means mid 80s max, and usually low 80s.

 

[Mr. Golf]

I have a question for the more knowledgeable people. If we get a weak to moderate niña, and normally the mjo is focused in the more niña phases 4-6 and in winter those phases support warm weather, how will we get cold then? Will it be dependant on QBO and nao/ao at that point? Just curious.

 

[Tarheel1]

I have a question for the more knowledgeable people. If we get a weak to moderate niña, and normally the mjo is focused in the more niña phases 4-6 and in winter those phases support warm weather, how will we get cold then? Will it be dependant on QBO and nao/ao at that point? Just curious.

Not that knowledgeable, but , a -NAO goes along way to getting cold and snowy weather, as it forces the jet stream way south and gives us our best shots at wintry precip. Our best MJO phases to get wintry precip are 1,2, and 8. You can have a whole winter of MJO being in the circle of death, or spending a lot of time in unfavorable phases, but just a week or two in the favorable phases, and some blocking with -NAO, and you could get a great winter storm or two for most of us!

 

[GaWx]

I have a question for the more knowledgeable people. If we get a weak to moderate niña, and normally the mjo is focused in the more niña phases 4-6 and in winter those phases support warm weather, how will we get cold then? Will it be dependant on QBO and nao/ao at that point? Just curious.

When the MJO is 4-5 and outside the circle (moderate to high amp), you may as well assume it won't be cold most of those days and that it likely would be warmer than normal for that period as a whole. But when inside the circle during those phases, the longterm average has actually been fairly close to normal based on overall SE US MJO climo. Of course, the MJO normally rotates several times during winter.

Go here for a writeup about the correlation between MJO phase and KATL Jan temp.'s (as a proxy to SE winter overall):
http://blog.southernwx.com/2017/01/...phase-inside-the-left-side-of-circle-coldest/

Hopefully it will be a weak (ONI peak of say -0.6 to -0.8) rather than moderate La Nina (-0.9 or colder) as that would mean lower chance for a mild winter. Also, hopefully the MJO will be mainly weak, including inside the circle. If we can get a weak La Nina with MJO mainly inside or barely outside the circle for DJF, then the chance for a warm winter would be low.

Edit: I just remembered that you're in Arkansas whereas I'm talking more SE US. So, what I'm saying applies more to your E than in your state per se as my studies have been more SE US concentrated. I'm not so sure about Arkansas as I haven't studied its climo. Keep in mind that ATL is 450 miles away from you and my studies center around ATL.

 

[pcbjr]

When the MJO is 4-5 and outside the circle (moderate to high amp), you may as well assume it won't be cold most of those days and that it likely would be warmer than normal for that period as a whole. But when inside the circle during those phases, the longterm average has actually been fairly close to normal based on overall SE US MJO climo. Of course, the MJO normally rotates several times during winter.

Go here for a writeup about the correlation between MJO phase and KATL Jan temp.'s (as a proxy to SE winter overall):
http://blog.southernwx.com/2017/01/...phase-inside-the-left-side-of-circle-coldest/

Hopefully it will be a weak (ONI peak of say -0.6 to -0.8) rather than moderate La Nina (-0.9 or colder) as that would mean lower chance for a mild winter. Also, hopefully the MJO will be mainly weak, including inside the circle. If we can get a weak La Nina with MJO mainly inside or barely outside the circle for DJF, then the chance for a warm winter would be low.

Larry's Blog write-up is phenomenal; strongly urge anyone interested in MJO to read it. Additionally, there are some basic primer and model links on MJO in our Wiki site: http://wiki.southernwx.com/doku.php?id=models -- look at Teleconnections and at Other, for example.

It's all good learning ...

Best,

Phil

PS - Larry - Thanks for the reply! You sure you're not really an English professor or a Federal Judge? You are so thorough and concise ...

 

[SimeonNC]

Also something to note that the SSTs around Greenland have warmed considerably since this time last year. Here's the current SSTs

Here was the SSTs last year.

Now here the one from two years ago.

I've seen talk of this cold pool affecting our winters in a way, but I don't know to which extent. Also if you take a look at the SSTs around Greenland from this time back in 2013, they were similar to ours, so maybe we might fare better than the last couple of years.

 

[GaWx]

^ Actually, the one thing that I noticed in the current map wasn't near Greenland SSTs, but the comparison of the hemispheres. Look at how much warmer is the N hem than the S Hem currently!! I roughly estimate that 80-85% of the N Hem is warmer than normal while only 40-45% of the S Hem is warmer than normal. Anyone know if this is accurate and, if so, why?

Edit: Per this link, the Arctic is very warm once again, similar to but not as warm as this time last year:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

Compare to 2016:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

 

[ForsythSnow]

^ Actually, the one thing that I noticed in the current map wasn't near Greenland SSTs, but the comparison of the hemispheres. Look at how much warmer is the N hem than the S Hem currently!! I roughly estimate that 80-85% of the N Hem is warmer than normal while only 40-45% of the S Hem is warmer than normal. Anyone know if this is accurate and, if so, why?

Edit: Per this link, the Arctic is very warm once again, similar to but not as warm as this time last year:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

Maybe because we are coming off of summer and they are coming off of winter? Just my best guess.

 

[GaWx]

Maybe because we are coming off of summer and they are coming off of winter? Just my best guess.

Interesting idea but don't forget that these are anomalies, meaning the season is taken into account, rather than absolutes.

 

[pcbjr]

Interesting idea but don't forget that these are anomalies, meaning the season is taken into account, rather than absolutes.

Larry,
Replying the entire related conversation and not just the quoted post -- It might be good to look at periods when the reverse was true, and compare those to this, and compare each to major indices to see if there is a correlation. Or alternatively, to see if there is any sort of cycle in play. That's out of my research league ... ... but if someone has the data and time, it would be interesting ..

 

[ForsythSnow]

Interesting idea but don't forget that these are anomalies, meaning the season is taken into account, rather than absolutes.

I do realize that, and I probably should have included it in my first post, but perhaps they are extremes showing up of each season. I just did a quick search and it appears the Antarctic sea ice is a bit low compared to the past several years, so perhaps the diffusion of the temperatures and ice breaking off a bit more than normal could explain the S. Hemisphere, but as for the N. Hemisphere, I'm probably clueless.

 

[ForsythSnow]

It started getting dark and I looked at the radar, and here comes some rain! It's developing too, so hopefully we can get a good downpour.

 

[accu35]

Yall are way over my head

 

[pcbjr]

Yall are way over my head

Welcome to the club ... it's all a conspiracy ... and over my head as well, which lends some small, if not more properly minuscule credence to the (conspiracy) theory ...