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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

1300m said:
NWS-RAH and the local broadcasts coverage area includes plenty of folks west of Wake County where they were consistently told that they would receive little to no accumulating snowfall. Yet Chatham, Lee etc. received 4 to 6". Imagine being an elderly person who had made their medical appointment plans or plans to pickup their medication the next day based on the consistent forecasts stating no snowfall if you lived in that area. It's rubbish and it's selfishly driven by this idea of it being better to be conservative until the last moment and then ramp up totals because people don't really care if you bust low only if you bust high. I think it's a deplorable practice.
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Webberweather53 said:
The local mets should consider themselves lucky that the dry slot developed over Wake Co. because if we had a normal precipitation shield we could have easily cranked out 6-8 or so which would have caught many folks completely off guard and would have resulted in a surprise snow. NWS RAH should feel embarrassed that they completely discounted the RGEM & NAM inside 24-36 hours over global models which showed virtually nothing west of I-95. The only reason they even verified in Raleigh was because of that mesoscale dry slot that the RAP & 12km NAM began to sniff out the night before the event... Unfortunately, some will make the same mistake yet again this week if the mesoscale and global models diverge in the short range and blindly assert that the Euro ensemble should receive precedent over high res models because it's "king" and the best performing model or some other garbage reason, yet it's designed to be sufficiently spread for the medium range only and won't be able to key in on small, mesoscale details that are important inside 36-48 hours.
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Yes, all day the local TV mets were saying it should stay Wake County and east, but areas west of Wake ended up with more than Wake. The higher totals did a U shape around Wake, and like you said the totals in Wake would have been higher if it didn't take so long for the dry layer to erode. And this is why I like coming here to get the whole story. It seems all the local TV mets do these days is start low and increase totals as the storm unfolds if they have to no matter what the models show.
 
Dallas to Memphis looks like the best zone at the moment for a nice little event for areas West of Atlanta

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Could be slight improvement with the GFS thru 60, looks similar to the NAM at same time..... let's see where it goes
 
you know, we were cursing the SER in December and rejoiced when it disappeared from the modeling. It sure would go a long way to helping us here if it was just show a little sign of life.
 
For areas West of the Carolinas the gfs at the surface looks just like the 06z run

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pooooooof! GFS And EURO are NIGHT and DAY from each other at H5 (ie gfs poof and euro tosses us a bone)
 
deltadog03 said:
pooooooof! GFS And EURO are NIGHT and DAY from each other at H5 (ie gfs poof and euro tosses us a bone)
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Yep, the Euro digs the s/w a lot more than the GFS, but as mentioned earlier the GFS is slowing and digging the wave more over the past several runs which allows for more prolonged & intense moist, mid-level southwesterly flow...
gfs_z500_vort_us_15.png
ecmwf_z500_vort_conus_17.png
 
Ok, i know my post is being remove, but this to me has trended much direr at least for my area. Hope things get better.
 
Cmc is nice for areas West of the Mississippi. Some 3-4 inch totals that way
4691b9e9f29dbdade1cb7194afaf367d.jpg


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