• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Webberweather53 said:
Yep, the Euro digs the s/w a lot more than the GFS, but as mentioned earlier the GFS is slowing and digging the wave more over the past several runs which allows for more prolonged & intense moist, mid-level southwesterly flow...
View attachment 2790
View attachment 2791
Click to expand...
So when do you think that will reflect more on model output? As far as seeing precip breakout more.
 
metwannabe said:
We talk about how the NAM is really only reliable within 48 hours but I'm starting to think the GFS falls in the same category.... beyond about 72 hours or so it's different every run seems like
Click to expand...
Agree there, besides this last event in the Mid South, it wants to be a bandwagon at the last second and mooch off the other models 48 hours before an event. It did it last week and also for the event in early Dec.
 
So we have the progressive models dry and the European which is not as Progressive a little bit wetter. The Nam looks like it'll be somewhere in between. I would say if the Euro comes in today, and backs off the qpf a little bit then it's time to worry a little bit
 
I just hope the GFS and Euro wasn't a mirage yesterday. They both looked good here. I know they can lose storms and bring them back. Hope that is what is happening now.
 
Clown maps fwiw....

snku_acc.us_se.png

snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Let me reiterate, the GFS showed nothing and barely picked up on this possible time period on even it's ensembles outside of 12z and 18z yesterday.
Click to expand...
Very valid point, not to mention with the coastal last week it did not show precip west of I-95 until the last run as the system was starting.... it's very late to the party often. Hoping that's the case here as well
 
How are those relative humidity maps looking today that Shawn told us to watch
 
Biggest thing I need to see if the UKMET is on board for a potential phase...without it, I would be highly skeptical this pans out.
 
GFS showed 6 inches here yesterday and hardly anything today. So frustrating.
 
Interesting how the GFS looks better earlier but produces less later.
 
1300m said:
The thing is by all accounts the 12z GFS today looks like it should have been a better run than yesterday's 12z run. It's all about how the vorticity interacts as it's diving southward, but even though the surface is looking worse, the trends at H5 are actually looking better as Webber has mentioned already.
Click to expand...

Hmmm then I'd like to see the ensembles to see if it says this solution is wrong.
 
1300m said:
The thing is by all accounts the 12z GFS today looks like it should have been a better run than yesterday's 12z run. It's all about how the vorticity interacts as it's diving southward, but even though the surface is looking worse, the trends at H5 are actually looking better as Webber has mentioned already.

12z yesterday:
View attachment 2793

12z today:
View attachment 2792
Click to expand...
Exactly.... I wish more people would take the time to look at the H5 trends (not just this storm) and recognize improvements or not instead of getting hung up on what the model shows in blue over an area. I know I post surface maps and clown maps but they're going to get posted anyway haha... it's just recognizing those maps aren't set in stone. Look at the set up.... meteorology over modelology
 
Problem is out in the Rockies, despite the stronger and further SW with the s/w, the ridge in the Rockies is much weaker vs it's 6z counterpart...

That's why I think the GFS did not amp up the longwave trough, and in fact was more positively tilted vs it's 6z run
 
1300m said:
The thing is by all accounts the 12z GFS today looks like it should have been a better run than yesterday's 12z run. It's all about how the vorticity interacts as it's diving southward, but even though the surface is looking worse, the trends at H5 are actually looking better as Webber has mentioned already.

12z yesterday:
View attachment 2793

12z today:
View attachment 2792
Click to expand...

metwannabe said:
Exactly.... I wish more people would take the time to look at the H5 trends (not just this storm) and recognize improvements or not instead of getting hung up on what the model shows in blue over an area. I know I post surface maps and clown maps but they're going to get posted anyway haha... it's just recognizing those maps aren't set in stone. Look at the set up.... meteorology over modelology
Click to expand...

Maybe this is one of those times the output on the model doesn't match the setup. Just frustrating to see the difference today versus yesterday.
 
While the surface output is less impressive than yesterday wrt snowfall in NC, the mid-upper level features are trending favorably for more snow in the Carolinas. As we observed w/ our mammoth coastal storm a little over a week ago, it's important not to get too enthralled w/ run-to-run variability in surface output (esp precipitation) whose frequency spectrum is more susceptible to mesoscale variability that's not easily resolved by global models like the GFS, but instead focus on what's happening at the synoptic-scale in the mid-upper levels where these mesoscale phenomena (like convective precipitation) take time to grow upscale & significantly impact the forecast....
 
Stormsfury said:
Problem is out in the Rockies, despite the stronger and further SW with the s/w, the ridge in the Rockies is much weaker vs it's 6z counterpart...

That's why I think the GFS did not amp up the longwave trough, and in fact was more positively tilted vs it's 6z run
Click to expand...

The last several GFS runs have actually trended towards a stronger ridge over the NW Territories and Alaska which is favorable for our s/w to dig more into the eastern side of the Rockies s/w ridge...
gfs_z500trend_namer_8.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
While the surface output is less impressive than yesterday wrt snowfall in NC, the mid-upper level features are trending favorably for more snow in the Carolinas. As we observed w/ our mammoth coastal storm a little over a week ago, it's important not to get too enthralled w/ run-to-run variability in surface output (esp precipitation) whose frequency spectrum is more susceptible to mesoscale variability that's not easily resolved by global models like the GFS, but instead focus on what's happening at the synoptic-scale in the mid-upper levels where these mesoscale phenomena (like convective precipitation) take time to grow upscale & significantly impact the forecast....
Click to expand...
So why are we seeing less precip now if the features are actually trending more favorably?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top