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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

1300m said:
Thats actually not what I'm saying. I'm saying that through at least the first 72 hours this run looked even better than yesterday's 12z run, but afterwards handled the energy differently. Perhaps it is right, but it wouldn't take much at all to return to yesterday's solution based on how the H5 evolution unfolded on this run.
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Wasn't there a point with the last storm where we did this same thing? The model run looked better but the final output was worse?
 
Webberweather53 said:
While the surface output is less impressive than yesterday wrt snowfall in NC, the mid-upper level features are trending favorably for more snow in the Carolinas. As we observed w/ our mammoth coastal storm a little over a week ago, it's important not to get too enthralled w/ run-to-run variability in surface output (esp precipitation) whose frequency spectrum is more susceptible to mesoscale variability that's not easily resolved by global models like the GFS, but instead focus on what's happening at the synoptic-scale in the mid-upper levels where these mesoscale phenomena (like convective precipitation) take time to grow upscale & significantly impact the forecast....
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No snow in GA. Calling it now. It's a Carolina or West SE and TN storm. With that said, H5 is looking fine for you guys, but we need a trend to the SW, a good tilt early on, and a weak low. That would put me in the game and many others, but for now, I'm safe saying too dry for N GA.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know this is starting to get out into la-la land but boy by day 5-6 as our s/w is leaving the picture it becomes one heck of a 50-50 low & pumps the heights over Greenland, leading to a pretty favorable planetary look for a Miller A cyclone... Very conspicuous to say the least...
View attachment 2795
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Here's the Miller A z500 composite I constructed for NC using some of the modern big dogs... Yea this pattern to a first approximation looks good.
Screen Shot 2018-01-13 at 10.30.58 AM.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
So why are we seeing less precip now if the features are actually trending more favorably?
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Because as 1300 stated they trended more favorably within the first 72 hrs but then kind of pooped out after that so the surface was actually accurate according to what was going on at "go time" at H5, watch trends Brick not specifics.... seriously the GFS is different at H5 beyond 72 hrs just about every run, consistent it isn't
 
ForsythSnow said:
No snow in GA. Calling it now. It's a Carolina or West SE and TN storm. With that said, H5 is looking fine for you guys, but we need a trend to the SW, a good tilt early on, and a weak low. That would put me in the game and many others, but for now, I'm safe saying too dry for N GA.
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Yep, we will be dry as a bone.
 
ForsythSnow said:
No snow in GA. Calling it now. It's a Carolina or West SE and TN storm. With that said, H5 is looking fine for you guys, but we need a trend to the SW, a good tilt early on, and a weak low. That would put me in the game and many others, but for now, I'm safe saying too dry for N GA.
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beg your pardon, but Alabama is going to be fine
 
Storm5 said:
That remains to be seen. This could easily be a dry front . All options are on the table.

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Agreed, this could turn out to be nothing for everyone except west of the Mississippi
 
This is still a few days out. Lots of time for things to change-for better or worse. I personally am enjoying the return to winter temps.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The last several GFS runs have actually trended towards a stronger ridge over the NW Territories and Alaska which is favorable for our s/w to dig more into the eastern side of the Rockies s/w ridge...
View attachment 2794
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I see what you're saying...I was referring within the Rockies themselves with the 567dm contour line in Southern Canada on the 6z, where it's more into Wyoming on the 12z run...and only interpreting wjy the GFS had shown less enthusiasm with the longwave trough over the Carolinas.
 
Stormsfury said:
I see what you're saying...I was referring within the Rockies themselves with the 567dm contour line in Southern Canada on the 6z, where it's more into Wyoming on the 12z run...and only interpreting wjy the GFS had shown less enthusiasm with the longwave trough over the Carolinas.
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Even w/ a weaker s/w ridge over the US rockies, the rather extreme alterations in the ACWB over NW North America the past several runs of the GFS is favorable for a digging trough near the longitude of the Great Lakes & MS Valley. I don't think the GFS is done adjusting in this regard
 
Looks like Ukie goes neutral sooner, sharper with the trough....
GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif
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