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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Really hope this strengthening trend stops, I don't need this at all
 
Water temps are running a bit cooler and their will be some midlevel shear as well and dry air near shore. I don’t see this one getting that strong.

55b1a2b9ceb7f760e298d2fd963de105.png



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BHS1975 said:
Water temps are running a bit cooler and their will be some midlevel shear as well and dry air near shore. I don’t see this one getting that strong.

55b1a2b9ceb7f760e298d2fd963de105.png
Click to expand...


Your SST analysis with regard to this TC is deceptive imo. Why? First of all, the projected track is well west of those very slightly below normal blue colors off SW FL (which by the way are still ~83 F). The models/NHC track is way out in the Gulf near 87W, which is within the warmer than normal area. I checked SSTs out in the middle of the Gulf where this TC is projected to track and they are way up in the bathwater 29-30C (84-86F) range, which is normal for August/early Sep! Backing this up is a buoy at 26.0N, 85.6W which is at a whopping 85F or near 29.5C! Normal by this late in the season is down to only ~82F. Furthermore, the most notable thing is that SSTs from there northward all the way up to the FL Panhandle are in the 84-85 F (29-29.5C) range. Backing this up are a buoy at 28.8N, 86.0W, which is at 84 F, and Panama City Beach, which is at 85 F. By now, they should have cooled off from summer highs a decent number of degrees. Instead, thanks to the incredibly persistent heat in Sep and early Oct, they remain near summer highs! What's normal there now? Only ~80 and often by now they're in the high 70s! So, they're running some 5 F warmer than normal, which is likely at record warmth for early Oct. Even the normal for mid Sep is only ~83.

This means that shear (which the GFS and Euro have as quite light by the way) and dry air will have to be relied on to keep this in check as SSTs certainly won't do so like they often can in October in the northern Gulf. Instead, this TC is going to be crossing Gulf SSTs all the way to FL that are about as warm or warmer than that of any TC on record that has crossed this area during Oct. 9-11. Hopefully the models are properly taking this into account.

Normals for Oct:​

SSTOctNormals .gif

In contrast, current SSTs are 29-30C (the bright green) in practically the entire GOM, which is not at all a normal situation there in early Oct:
GulfSSTsOct52018.gif
 
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Also 0z and 6z models suite have shift storm more east and southward maybe the idea of coming into Fl and riding Carolina Coast is not unrealistic.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Yea. You would think it should be a depression by that point considering many hours over land.
Click to expand...
What's worrying is the fact the low maintains a low pressure over land on every model. Maybe someone here can explain how this is even possible? My guess is something involving the massive heat we have in place combined with the incoming trough that is supposed to push it out. Probably the heat isn't as much, but the trough is probably pushing against the SER with to be Michael in between, keeping the pressure tight and low.
 
ForsythSnow said:
What's worrying is the fact the low maintains a low pressure over land on every model. Maybe someone here can explain how this is even possible? My guess is something involving the massive heat we have in place combined with the incoming trough that is supposed to push it out. Probably the heat isn't as much, but the trough is probably pushing against the SER with to be Michael in between, keeping the pressure tight and low.
Click to expand...
The forward speed of the storm once inland is allowing it to stay strong. Similar thing happened to Hugo which allowed it to stay a hurrricane even up into Charlotte.
 
GaWx said:
Your SST analysis with regard to this TC is deceptive imo. Why? First of all, the projected track is well west of those very slightly below normal blue colors off SW FL (which by the way are still ~83 F). The models/NHC track is way out in the Gulf near 87W, which is within the warmer than normal area. I checked SSTs out in the middle of the Gulf where this TC is projected to track and they are way up in the bathwater 29-30C (84-86F) range, which is normal for August/early Sep! Backing this up is a buoy at 26.0N, 85.6W which is at a whopping 85F or near 29.5C! Normal by this late in the season is down to only ~82F. Furthermore, the most notable thing is that SSTs from there northward all the way up to the FL Panhandle are in the 84-85 F (29-29.5C) range. Backing this up are a buoy at 28.8N, 86.0W, which is at 84 F, and Panama City Beach, which is at 85 F. By now, they should have cooled off from summer highs a decent number of degrees. Instead, thanks to the incredibly persistent heat in Sep and early Oct, they remain near summer highs! What's normal there now? Only ~80 and often by now they're in the high 70s! So, they're running some 5 F warmer than normal, which is likely at record warmth for early Oct. Even the normal for mid Sep is only ~83.

This means that shear (which the GFS and Euro have as quite light by the way) and dry air will have to be relied on to keep this in check as SSTs certainly won't do so like they often can in October in the northern Gulf. Instead, this TC is going to be crossing Gulf SSTs all the way to FL that are about as warm or warmer than that of any TC on record that has crossed this area during Oct. 9-11. Hopefully the models are properly taking this into account.

Normals for Oct:​

View attachment 6712

In contrast, current SSTs are 29-30C (the bright green) in practically the entire GOM, which is not at all a normal situation there in early Oct:
View attachment 6713
Click to expand...

Oh ok that anomaly map is a bit misleading. Not sure why there should be any blue at all.


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