gawxnative
Member
Same also with Opal.. NOT saying he will be that strong.. but my concern with him staying "tight" will be the combination of the tight gradient coupled with increased risk of related tornadoes
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
BHS1975
Member
Those are some pretty cold cloud tops near the center.
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BHS1975
Member
All the western models did shift east.
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Water temps are running a bit cooler and their will be some midlevel shear as well and dry air near shore. I don’t see this one getting that strong.
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Low TCHP is the issue, but with a small, fast TC it doesnt mean as much. As far as shear goes it depends on motion. A TC moving west into 20knts of SW shear and it will get sheared. However a small TC moving NE quickly in 20knts of SW shear will nullify most of that shear.
Secondly, the farther west it goes the higher chance that dry air takes its toll, but the more it aims toward FL, that possibility drops.
As I said days ago, the more eastward it goes, the higher the chance of a stronger storm. IMHO.
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The hurricane shields are working their magic this morning , imby! The SE trend looks to have commenced!This cone is quite worrisome. Note that the TS in VA is a 50 mph one. I've never seen such a thing where it's able to maintain strength through land.
JBs quality map!
That isn't good, JB isn't calling for a Cat 4. Those in FL had better start preparing for a major hurricane.
6z FV3 still showing the more west track, but the bigger thing is it shows it still strengthening with 954mb a few hours before landfall south of Mobile. Would be an Opal clone for AL.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
I’m going camping in this storm 
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Starting to get serious, 6z HWRF has landfall at 933mb and 112knts.
Normally is say it's over done, but with the globals agreeing, it needs a seriously look.
Normally is say it's over done, but with the globals agreeing, it needs a seriously look.
My sister lives in Ft. Walton Beach already telling her be prepared for possible stronger storm then currently forecast. They vividly remember Opal
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Henry2326
Member
Yup....UKMET and HWRF led the pack yesterday. Looks like the rest are trying to catch up.
Henry2326
Member
I hope you sister will be safe. My parents live in South GA. I'm having a difficult time getting their attention. They say " the weather man on tv says its not coming here". OMG!!!
Henry2326
Member
Courtesy of Mike's Weather page. Shear is moving a bit north into the gulf. Still a window to intensify.....similar to Opal.
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My sister has learned to listen to me over the years as a supplement to locals, we're much older now she wouldn't have done that 20 or 30 yrs ago lol
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RollTide18
Member
All you have to do is say the words “Opal” or “Ivan” and people will get prepared in a hurry.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Haven’t been on the board much this past week. Wow this will definitely have my attention this week. Needs closely monitored.
Henry2326
Member
Basically, the difference in west vs. further east is timing. EURO is slower out off the gate at the Yuc passage, thus slowing down path through the gulf giving the high time to begin an exit. Its following the high further east.
At 00z on Wedneday 10/10, the FV3 is making landfall while the Euro is still in the middle of the gulf. Its amazing the difference of 24 hours.
At 00z on Wedneday 10/10, the FV3 is making landfall while the Euro is still in the middle of the gulf. Its amazing the difference of 24 hours.
accu35
Member
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And Alabama
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Is there really a chance for this to become a major hurricane? I have not really been following it, just thought it was going to be some rain.
Any chance of severe weather around when it comes inland?
Any chance of severe weather around when it comes inland?