Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

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Those in GA/SC should pay close attention to this. The GFS run was nasty all the way through inland GA/SC would face much more wind than the last situation of Florence.

I say this because of all the "crap talk" about Florence being nothing through here all over social media and people not taking Michael serious over it.
 
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So what’s driving the N movement after landfall? The front coming down? If it’s slower, it goes more N, before being shunted East!
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
FV3 was quite a bit west of the GFS and I think a lot like Opal.

Euro should be interesting this afternoon. Going to see if I can find the UKMET.
Click to expand...

It’s been pretty far west vs other guidance . But even it’s shifted east over the last few days . The CMC is way west , but it’s horrible .

But yeah the 12z FV3 was a nasty run


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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What is with the UKMET on still another run being so far right of the consensus throughout its route in the GOM (never further W than 85.5W in the middle of the GOM vs other models that are closer to 87W), which is why it landfalls in the Big Bend vs the consensus in the FL panhandle? What makes this more mysterious is that the UKMET has tended to do the opposite, be the furthest west/left with storms in the past.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

l’ll need to check the records, but this has a chance to be the latest on record major H for N FL. With those record or near record warm Gulf SSTs for so late in the season from the central Gulf all of the way to the coast (more like typical W Car Oct SSTs!) along the projected path and the projected low shear, it could happen.
 
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Shawn said:
Those in GA/SC should pay close attention to this. The GFS run was nasty all the way through inland GA/SC would face much more wind than the last situation of Florence.

I say this because of all the "crap talk" about Florence being nothing through here all over social media and people not taking Michael serious over it.
Click to expand...
yes, inland threat will be elevated due to angle and speed this is coming into FL/AL
 
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000
WTNT64 KNHC 071653
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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Tarheel1 said:
How’s the starting location of Michael, now that it’s formed, VS where models were showing it form? As this could be big in regards through it’s gulf track!?
Click to expand...
FV3 has it past the passage gate at 987 pressure noon on Monday. 00z Euro has it still in the passage at weak storm. 24 hour difference in movement brings it east for landfall.

Edit: Its off the races after out of the passage.
 
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GaWx said:
What is with the UKMET on still another run being so far right of the consensus throughout its route in the GOM (never further W than 85.5W in the middle of the GOM vs other models that are closer to 87W), which is why it landfalls in the Big Bend vs the consensus in the FL panhandle? What makes this more mysterious is that the UKMET has tended to do the opposite, be the furthest west/left with storms in the past.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

l’ll need to check the records, but this has a chance to be the latest on record major H for N FL. With those record or near record warm Gulf SSTs for so late in the season from the central Gulf all of the way to the coast (more like typical W Car Oct SSTs!) along the projected path and the projected low shear, it could happen.
Click to expand...
I'll bet it's timing out of the passage. Can you tell if its still in the Yuc passage at noon on Monday? If so, then consistent with placement of both Euro and Icon.
 
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