Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[Brent]

PTC coming

 

[ForsythSnow]

PTC coming

Yep. Wonder how the cone will be and what the intensities will be. I'm betting on a cat 1 landfall for the initial cone.

 

[Brent]

70 mph landfall Wednesday near Destin

 

[Tarheel1]

There is a ton of dry air in the upper levels over the gulf, that hopefully will slow intensification somewhat

 

[ForsythSnow]

Congrats Mack you're in the bullseye 5 days out. LOL.

 

[Tarheel1]

Congrats Mack you're in the bullseye 5 days out. LOL.

Awesome, too bad it’s 5 days out! I’ve killed many a good cone!:weenie:

 

[Henry2326]

Congrats Mack you're in the bullseye 5 days out. LOL.

Well...no where to go but up. Good place to start

 

[Henry2326]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. A non-tropical low pressure system, located about midway between the
Azores and the Canary Islands, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to near
gale force mainly north of the center. The low could gradually
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics over the next few
days while the system moves generally eastward and remains over warm
waters. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for any significant development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

[Henry2326]

All models at 18z held positions. ICON went east with UKMET, but weak.

 

[Tarheel1]

B Rad already saying no problems! I don’t know why he irks me so much , but he does!

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 6704 B Rad already saying no problems! I don’t know why he irks me so much , but he does!

It’s 10X worse in the winter. Me and my friend were having this same conversation last night. He’s got to see the first inch fall and first creek out of the bank before he’s on board.

 

[Tarheel1]

It’s 10X worse in the winter. Me and my friend were having this same conversation last night. He’s got to see the first inch fall and first creek out of the bank before he’s on board.

I think it’s the fact that he almost speaks in absolutes. Like the above statement. How does he know how fast it will moving, or how strong it will be? If it’s stronger and moves fast, then wind would be a problem? It’s like he’s contradicting his self! Just as the models were off 3 categories on Florence, what if they are 2-3 categories too low for Michael!?

 

[Tarheel1]

Here’s this

 

[vtrap90]

View attachment 6705 Here’s this

I really dislike the way these maps are designed.

 

[stormcentral]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I’m ready for time change so we can get these models before my bedtime.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

As a warm up routine, areal flood advisory till 1AM here. Heavy rain has anchored down here on the eastern slopes of the blue ridge.

 

[deltadog03]

I know its the NAM and all that good stuff....but here is the 00z run. Strengthening as it's moving northward.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The Icon shifted east more toward southern ga once inland.

 

[Tarheel1]

0z GFS forecast for Thursday Oct 11th! Still looking great for rain, imby