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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

8A4C351D-059E-4455-83C0-4487D0677976.png Euro looking good!
 
Euro 12z moved landfall at 12z on the 11th with Ukmet, but waaayyyy weaker and slightly west. It also moves east not quite to the coast moving through the Carolinas.
Also slow out of the gate at the Yuc/Cuba passage at noon on Monday.
 
Euro 12z moved landfall at 12z on the 11th with Ukmet, but waaayyyy weaker and slightly west. It also moves east not quite to the coast moving through the Carolinas.
Also slow out of the gate at the Yuc/Cuba passage at noon on Monday.

Euro further NW of its run last night so it appears the UK is on an island by itself right now.
 
The FV3 has the storm strongest of all its runs so far and strengthening at landfall. Would rock me here.

I'm leaning toward higher intensity level. 2 to 3 days over hot water with no shear and the trough taking control. I hope I'm wrong.
 
I'm leaning toward higher intensity level. 2 to 3 days over hot water with no shear and the trough taking control. I hope I'm wrong.

I think it depends on size and speed. While the water is warm, TCHP is low across the GOM. A small and fast hurricane could strengthen decently, but a larger and slower storm will have issues with upwelling.
 
I'm leaning toward higher intensity level. 2 to 3 days over hot water with no shear and the trough taking control. I hope I'm wrong.
6Z and 12Z HWRF would be just that FWIW. Here is the 0Z MOGAPS as well. hwrf_mslp_wind_91L_32.png ukmet ens.png
 
Ironically, UKMET is 949, while HWRF is 945. That is scary....

Also, the same conditions existed with Opal, Eloise, Agnes, and Florence. See global model thread.

If you name the biggest weather events in AL that people remember, you get 4/27 and the Superstorm, then you have Opal. The thing whipped us in East AL.
 
Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.
91L_tracks_latest.png
 
Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.
91L_tracks_latest.png
ATL needs the rain so I hope it goes right over us. My grass is like pine straw right now.
 
Of course the models have gotten worse for this storm overall. The EPS likes the idea of it passing though GA with some strength, the HWRF is probably too strong, the GFS and FV3 have a TS through here, as does the NAVGEM. If you made a cone out of the models, ATL is in the direct path as is the W panhandle and AL mostly. Given the looks, we will have a depression by tonight or tomorrow morning.
91L_tracks_latest.png
Big shift west there from the 12Z product.
 
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