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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by GaWx, Nov 26, 2017.

  1. dsaur

    dsaur Supporter Member

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    We need to get some pellets down to Phil. I sort of told him it was coming, lol. Meanwhile, I'm still in the sweet spot, which is making me very paranoid. I still remember with great pain being under a heavy snow warning, and having it go Miller B and miss me altogether in the 70's. Impressionable minds can be warped by such as that. I'd much rather it sneak up on me, lol. T
     
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  2. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Tony,
    Thanks!
    You get yours!
    Hope springs eternal down here, but actually I'd prefer waiting until late month or early next, since usually early frozen down here leads to a fairly big warm up afterwards (least ways down in this neck of the woods) ... which I wouldn't wish on anyone here!
    BTW - you may get a 2nd shot next week, and the probabilities are somewhat encouraging ...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    :eek:
     
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  3. dsaur

    dsaur Supporter Member

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    Lol, January chances in early/mid Dec. who'd have thunk it...well, besides Larry :) Maybe this is the year we all of us get well. T
     
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  4. Roswellian

    Roswellian Member

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    I have been following long enough to know not to trust the NAM outside 36-48 hours, but why do people follow its output beyond that time frame if it is inaccurate at best? Might be entertainment purposes but it seems like some people always point to NAM output with a disclaimer that it sucks. Why even bring it up outside its wheelhouse? Just curious.
     
  5. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Couple of reasons I can think of, inevitably somebody is going to post it so might as well go ahead and post it with the disclaimer in other words there's no way NAM clown maps don't show up so explain them. Other reason, it's a weather discussion board so discuss it, no different then discussing 384 hr GFS maps, we know they won't verify but hey that's what we do on weather forums.

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  6. Roswellian

    Roswellian Member

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    Got it and I appreciate the reasoned response. Trying to soak in as much as I can at this board.
     
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  7. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Late bloomer on the 12z gfs next Wednesday followed by a big system next weekend
     
  8. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Man the GFS is becoming very active in the 13-20th period that Webber mentioned days ago
     
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  9. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    Fun times ahead. I think this week's storm is just the warm-up for bigger things down the road.
     
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  10. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Would be nice to see that storm on the 20th verify colder with time! Pattern certainly looks like its starting to get active.
     
  11. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    That day 9nsetup on the Euro gets me excited . Just need that energy to kick on out
     
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  12. Usmeagle2005

    Usmeagle2005 Member

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    Tupelo, MS
    50’s here and sun in north miss, 30’s and cold rain close to the coast in south miss. so far this pattern has brought me very slightly below normal temps. And looks like I will have to wait till the next pattern change for a good snow chance here, hope there is one, yes I know, that’s life. I gave up on winter in 2015 at the end of February, 2 days later 7 inches of snow.
     
  13. olhausen

    olhausen Member

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    Sadly us folks in Tennessee don’t have much skin in the game for this winter wx coming up. Good news is that it’s still early December and the pattern is great. Hopefully our friends to the south score on the current storm that is on the horizon.
     
  14. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Anyone with the eps, please post your thoughts on the pattern as we roll forwArd in time
     
  15. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator Supporter

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    Looks like we may get a brief break in the pattern for a day or two around the 20ish but both the 12z GEFS and 12z EPS bring us right back to below normal by the end of their runs.


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  16. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Slight differences at 240 between 0Z and 12Z; the thing that sticks out most to your humble Curmudgeon is the west ridge structure ...
    0Z
    [​IMG]
    12Z
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Here's the storm we've been looking for... Goes right over the Apps and into the mid Atlantic
    Unknown.gif
     
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  18. Chattownsnow

    Chattownsnow Member

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    Nice to see it on both the gfs and Euro. If you take the GFS bias of scooting systems too fast in the southern stream at this range we have a good shot at something really nice coming up. Gives that cold push more time to work in and perhaps keeps the system south.
     
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  19. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    Cool, I need more rain! I don't see how with this epic pattern and cold press, we still lose storms to the N ! WTF
     
  20. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    It's over a week away.
     
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  21. Cary_Snow95

    Cary_Snow95 Member

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    It seems like we really aren't getting any strong HP to our north at all. They're all dropping from the west
     
  22. Brent

    Brent Member

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    well we do need the rain here :confused:
     
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  23. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Just a thought.
    The cold region includes the NW. With a NW snow pack, the air stays colder as a HP moves east (all we need is that snow pack) ... but given the return flow on a true north strong HP over time as it moves east (absent some substantial blocking), seems that a strong NW high can produce as much cold air and perhaps have it last a little longer before its southerly return flow kicks in.
    Just a thought ...
     
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  24. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    My statement on the 0z NAM is two:

    1. PREPARE FOR GLORY!
    2. PREPARE FOR UTTER DISAPPOINTMENT!
     
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  25. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    That system late next week is sexy looking
     
  26. Cary_Snow95

    Cary_Snow95 Member

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    The one at 240?
     
  27. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Site Developer

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    If Storm is speaking of the GFS, there's a system brewing in the Gulf that could trend colder, and more in everyone's favor around 228.
     
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  28. MSnowAtl

    MSnowAtl Member

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    Burns said that this pattern will last til the 20th. Hoping for a cold Christmas!
     
  29. Alex

    Alex Member

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    Being that we're now within 48 hours of this event for most of us, wouldn't this be about the time to start giving the higher resolution models, such as the NAM, more weight over the globals? I know all should be considered, I've just seen a loooot of comments regarding the inconsistency of say the NAM outside of a certain number of hours.

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  30. Alex

    Alex Member

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    Being that we're now within 48 hours of this event for most of us, wouldn't this be about the time to start giving the higher resolution models, such as the NAM, more weight over the globals? I know all should be considered, I've just seen a loooot of comments regarding the inconsistency of say the NAM outside of a certain number of hours.

    Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
     

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