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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

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Holy Cow!!!
 
Love seeing all of this cold air and the possibilities for Winter Weather. Happy Meteorological Winter Everyone!! :D
 
Should have a pool for the number of "toss it"; "dumpster fire"; "moisture chasing cold"; "sun angle"; "ground temps" comments for the month
 
Btw, in case anyone was interested I just finished a massive write up and case study analysis on the massive January 2000 snowstorm in NC for my synoptic meteorology class. I think many of you, especially if you remember the storm, will enjoy and get a lot out of what I've written up. I essentially explain the background surrounding the event, provide an extremely thorough historical perspective, discuss what parts of the forecast went wrong and why, and then offer an interesting climate dynamics spin on the planetary-synoptic scale pattern that supported this storm...

Part III: Analysis of QPF & Precipitation Type w/ the NGM and ERA-20C models for the 0z January 24th 2000 model suite
http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ejwebb2_jan2000_part3.pdf
 
LetItSnow said:
Should have a pool for the number of "toss it"; "dumpster fire"; "moisture chasing cold"; "sun angle"; "ground temps" comments for the month
Click to expand...
I will go with 18 toss it, 52 dumpster fires, 74 cold chasing moisture, 9 sun angle, 136 ground temps

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LetItSnow said:
Should have a pool for the number of "toss it"; "dumpster fire"; "moisture chasing cold"; "sun angle"; "ground temps" comments for the month
Click to expand...
My guess will be 65 "Toss Its", 18 "Dumpster Fires", 93 "Cold Chasing Moistures", 28 "Sun Angles" (As a bonus, at least 60% will be from the same person), and 58 " Ground Temps".
 
LetItSnow said:
Should have a pool for the number of "toss it"; "dumpster fire"; "moisture chasing cold"; "sun angle"; "ground temps" comments for the month
Click to expand...

I’ll go with 25 toss it, 75 dumpster fire, 95 moisture chasing cold, 30 sun angle, and 160 ground temps.


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The model runs are going to be back and forth past 5 days, especially with all the energy flying around. The main thing is the pattern looks great and the setup is there for some winter storms this month.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Btw, in case anyone was interested I just finished a massive write up and case study analysis on the massive January 2000 snowstorm in NC for my synoptic meteorology class. I think many of you, especially if you remember the storm, will enjoy and get a lot out of what I've written up. I essentially explain the background surrounding the event, provide an extremely thorough historical perspective, discuss what parts of the forecast went wrong and why, and then offer an interesting climate dynamics spin on the planetary-synoptic scale pattern that supported this storm...

Part III: Analysis of QPF & Precipitation Type w/ the NGM and ERA-20C models for the 0z January 24th 2000 model suite
http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ejwebb2_jan2000_part3.pdf
Click to expand...

Webb, great read and excellent technical detail. Are parts 1 and 2 available to read? You may have referenced them before and I just missed it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Btw, in case anyone was interested I just finished a massive write up and case study analysis on the massive January 2000 snowstorm in NC for my synoptic meteorology class. I think many of you, especially if you remember the storm, will enjoy and get a lot out of what I've written up. I essentially explain the background surrounding the event, provide an extremely thorough historical perspective, discuss what parts of the forecast went wrong and why, and then offer an interesting climate dynamics spin on the planetary-synoptic scale pattern that supported this storm...

Part III: Analysis of QPF & Precipitation Type w/ the NGM and ERA-20C models for the 0z January 24th 2000 model suite
http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ejwebb2_jan2000_part3.pdf
Click to expand...

Will definitely check this out, this was a perfect storm for me. Was in college at Wingate and we got dumped on...being from long island I was kind of used to snows like that but not used to the lack of removal equipment. The entire county was basically shut down for days, all stores within walking distance of campus sold out of beer. It was a giant week long party!

Now, regarding the current models for the 14-16 range...glad we are looking at storm possibilities popping up, but will be even happier when that giant swath of ZR isn't destroying my area. if something like that does develop someone will get crushed with ice though...we'll just have to wait and see.
 
LetItSnow said:
Should have a pool for the number of "toss it"; "dumpster fire"; "moisture chasing cold"; "sun angle"; "ground temps" comments for the month
Click to expand...
55 moisture chasing cold, 50 dumpster fires, 40 toss it, 30 ground temps, 20 sun angles and a southeast ridge that won't go away. To the tune of 12 days of Christmas

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LetItSnow said:
Should have a pool for the number of "toss it"; "dumpster fire"; "moisture chasing cold"; "sun angle"; "ground temps" comments for the month
Click to expand...

Should've put mine in there to start...
63 toss it's
25 dumpster fires
150 moisture chasing cold
38 sun angles
123 ground temps
 
navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png


Well I don't see full temps but that 540 line and the minor details on the Navgem model looks like a good over-running event Dec. 6th-7th period just taken as verbatim similar to GFS but cold is much more tilted.
 
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