1. Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by GaWx, Nov 26, 2017.

  1. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Site Developer

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    3,419
    Location:
    Lexington/CAE, SC
    The NAM isn't nearly as bad as people tend to claim. It does some wonky things sometimes, like all modeling, of course.
     
    Alex likes this.
  2. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,872
    Location:
    Lexington, SC
    0z GFS had the storm and the 0z Euro had the temps. Just need to get them on the same page.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Storm5 likes this.
  3. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    3,271
    Location:
    Northwest Harnett County, NC
    I'd rather look at the 3k nam or rgem over the 12k nam

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
    metwannabe and Alex like this.
  4. tennessee storm

    tennessee storm Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    289
    Location:
    jackson, tennessee....
    Agree with burns on this... models wanting go zonal around that frame
     
  5. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    4,686
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Watch the PNA ...

    and BTW ...

    [​IMG]
     
    metwannabe likes this.
  6. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,726
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    The 0Z GEFS based AO forecast this morning is much less negative than it was in recent days. Now the 12/1-15 averaged forecast for it is only down to near -1 vs it having been between -1.5 and -2. Also, it has it rising some afterward. In addition, the PNA forecast is less positive. Furthermore, the 0Z EPS becomes more zonal in the 11-15. This is all consistent with warming trends/more zonal flow. Hopefully, these last few runs are just a burp and the models will revert back to a stronger -AO/+PNA.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
    whatalife, pcbjr and metwannabe like this.
  7. Cary_Snow95

    Cary_Snow95 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    544
    GFS looks interesting with the wave at 192..
    Looks to be getting squashed by an arctic front
     
    Storm5 and whatalife like this.
  8. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2017
    Messages:
    192
    Location:
    Senatobia, MS
    Drastic changes at hour 360 between 6Z & 12Z. A lot Colder this run!
     
    packfan98 likes this.
  9. tennessee storm

    tennessee storm Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    289
    Location:
    jackson, tennessee....
    please take that with a grain salt. Way way fantasy land
     
    NWMSGuy likes this.
  10. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2017
    Messages:
    192
    Location:
    Senatobia, MS
    For sure, would be great to see it verify.
     
    tennessee storm likes this.
  11. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,726
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    The 12Z GEFS appears to bring the AO back down again late in the run and more than does the 0Z GEFS fwiw. Analogs favor it coming back down. So we'll see.
     
    Tarheel1, metwannabe, pcbjr and 3 others like this.
  12. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    212
    Location:
    Cumming
    That's good to hear. I sure hope we can score big at some point and see the PNA rebound as well.
     
  13. dsaur

    dsaur Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    250
    Location:
    40 miles south of Atl
    If we get a repeating pattern, with cold shots and some blocking.. up until mid Jan. I read something you said about the rest of Jan being normal. Well, we get some good winter weather being normal :) I'll take repeated shots of normal Jan weather in Dec, then take the normal Jan weather after that, lol. This is shaping up alright! If I can get something over the next few day from of being in the sweet spot for so long, this could be a banner year with two or three shots early, then normal after that, lol. T
     
    GaStorm, GaWx, pcbjr and 1 other person like this.
  14. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,726
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    Even the EPS, which has been and still is going more zonal than the GEFS late in the 6-10, now has a restrengthening Alaskan ridge as we get later into the 11-15. As a result, there is at hour 360 (on 12/22) an impressively strong signal for so far out in time of a strong Arctic high (1032 mb is quite strong for an ensemble of 50 members 15 days out) accompanied by 850s as cold as -26 C along the western shore of Hudson Bay moving southward toward the US as the -AO begins to restrengthen. What's extra notable about this is that this -26 C 850
    MB air, which first shows up as sub -24 C 850s as early as 12/20 further north, is the coldest of any on the entire run in Canada and appears to
    fed by a cross polar upper flow.

    I'm paying extra close attention to this because analogs have insisted on a solid cold E US Dec with accompanying solid and persistent -AO as opposed to a Dec that is cold for only a 10 or so day period and then just craps out late. This run, along with the 12Z GEFS and GEPS, are saying cold will be back to start dominating much of the US starting in about 2 weeks and it could easily be even colder than what will occur over the next 10 days. So, any break in the current cold pattern, which is common, regardless, may very well be shortlived. The model runs will likely waver back and forth. But stay tuned as the analogs and now the models again are saying look out late month.
     
  15. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    4,686
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Great post, Larry! Was noticing much the same, and looking at the PNA which seems like it wants to stay on top of +; maybe we'll all get a nice treat from Santa, but, and as you say, stay tuned, it's a ways out there!
    Again, great post!
    Phil
     
    GaWx and NWMSGuy like this.
  16. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,872
    Location:
    Lexington, SC
    Welcome some thoughts on the weeklies. I wasn’t overly impressed with them after about day 10...


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  17. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,715
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    Euro weeklies pretty much put an end to winter after early January and the classical NINA torching begins by mid month. Eventually, this background state will catch up w/ us because Januarys usually arent cold here in a NINA, Decembers can be and Februarys are rarely near normal
     
    GaWx and whatalife like this.
  18. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,726
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    I wasn't impressed either and, as you said, this is what would be expected in La Niña (I'm thinking cold til around Jan 15th and then mainly mild in the SE from then on though places like the Midwest would likely remain cold). If we can just remain cold dominated through near 1/15, I'll be a very satisfied camper after the last two mainly nonwinters.

    However, two caveats:
    1. The weeklies as you know are not at all dependable and they change a lot from run to run since all it is is a 45 day long EPS and we know that just the 11-15 can be unstable/unreliable. So, Monday's run could be wildly different.

    2. The -AO, which I believe is more predictable than the midlatitudes, is still pretty stout just about all of the way to the end of the run. This is even stronger on the 12Z CFSv2. AO/QBO/ENSO analogs favor a rather strong
    -AO continuing through 12/31 and even a decent -AO through at least the 1st half of Jan (after that a crapshoot). So, this may be our ace in the hole to keep it cold at least through Jan 15th.
     
    metwannabe likes this.
  19. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Site Developer

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    3,419
    Location:
    Lexington/CAE, SC
    Sadly, I haven't seen much if any fantasy storms on the GFS in recent days. This does not bode well through Christmas. What happened to the 13-16th time-frame!
     
    whatalife and Brent like this.
  20. Brent

    Brent Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2016
    Messages:
    1,532
    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    yeah what happened to the storm next weekend?

    Looks like we're going back to a boring pattern here and no real cold
     
    Shawn likes this.
  21. whamby

    whamby Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    Messages:
    167
    Location:
    Chattanooga, Tn
    The pattern relaxes toward the end of tonight's Gfs, but one thing I noticed was Western/Central Canada gets much colder... if this current cold pattern returns, early Jan could be interesting. (yeah, I'm kind of punting until then, lol)
     
  22. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Site Developer

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    3,419
    Location:
    Lexington/CAE, SC
    Well lets hope that something is going to sneak in before the +PNA breaks down that I've been looking at on modeling. I get that we can get a reload, but as bad as Winter has been in recent years (especially here), I can't get too hopeful about it. It's like losing control of a golden egg and fumbling it off a roof top to lose the -NAO/+PNA combo before scoring.
     
  23. Brent

    Brent Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2016
    Messages:
    1,532
    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    yeah I'm still concerned this could be like last winter and the pattern goes to the dumps in January... Dallas is just now ending a record freeze less streak that began on January 9th 2017 lol
     
  24. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,726
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    Well, what do you know. Not only is the 0Z EPS backing up the above referenced 12Z EPS change back to a cold pattern, but it is even more emphatic! Make no mistake about it that it is reestablishing a very strong Alaskan/far E Pac ridge, which gets started around 12/20 and is quite strong by the end of the run. As a result of this, there's cross polar flow at the end of the run and the coldest air on the planet anomalywise by far covering nearly all of Canada and moving into the N Rockies/Plains as well as the upper MW on 12/22. There's also a restrengtheing of the -AO. There is once again a 1032 mb high in NW Canada. Remember that this is hour 360 of a 50 member ensemble run showing this strong of a high. It is then poised to move much further down into the US with eyes quite possibly on the SE US by no later than Christmas. I'm officially repumped like I was in late Nov in advance of the current cold.
     
    GaStorm, pcbjr, metwannabe and 7 others like this.
  25. whamby

    whamby Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    Messages:
    167
    Location:
    Chattanooga, Tn
    yeah, if this pattern more or less repeats, we'll have dead of winter climatology, source region cold, and more ample snowpack working in our favor.. This winter really feels like it wants to be a slightly warmer, but still crazy and snowy repeat of 2010-11. IF I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Sue me.
     
  26. whamby

    whamby Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    Messages:
    167
    Location:
    Chattanooga, Tn
    Welcome to the pattern change: *CHA NOWData*

    2017-12-01 66 46 56.0 10.0 9 0 0.00 0.0 0
    2017-12-02 67 43 55.0 9.3 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
    2017-12-03 66 38 52.0 6.6 13 0 0.00 0.0 0
    2017-12-04 66 39 52.5 7.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 0
    2017-12-05 60 42 51.0 6.2 14 0 0.86 0.0 0
    2017-12-06 46 37 41.5 -3.0 23 0 0.00 0.0 0

    It's only Day 1, folks....
     
  27. packfan98

    packfan98 Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    320
    Location:
    Sophia, NC
    The GFS has been out to lunch the whole time being too weak and east...now it's the furthest west...Geez...
     
    metwannabe and whamby like this.
  28. packfan98

    packfan98 Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    320
    Location:
    Sophia, NC
    People put WAY to much faith in those hourly model runs. The 23 hour hrrr is like the 360 hour GFS...
     
    metwannabe likes this.
  29. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2017
    Messages:
    192
    Location:
    Senatobia, MS
    How well did the EPS handle, in advance, the current cold we are experiencing compared to what is now being forecasted for late December?
     
  30. Typo

    Typo Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2017
    Messages:
    11
    Location:
    Columbia, SC
    Well, except you get to be disappointed a whole lot sooner ;)
     
    Alex likes this.

Share This Page