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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

So what we have is a 925.9mb hurricane with 159.9 (160mph) winds. If we get another pass with an unflagged 150kt + windspeed, we are approaching 170mph + winds. Overnight, it is very possible that Maria can still approach Allen's Atlantic record of 190mph, barring an eyewall replacement cycle.
 
Still waiting for the dropsondes. I think we're going to see even scarier numbers that will eventually start making it down to the surface over the coming hours.
 
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
745 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND MARIA AS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Maria has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory
will be issued at 800 PM AST (0000 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Maria.


SUMMARY OF 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES
 
Shawn said:
So what we have is a 925.9mb hurricane with 159.9 (160mph) winds. If we get another pass with an unflagged 150kt + windspeed, we are approaching 170mph + winds. Overnight, it is very possible that Maria can still approach Allen's Atlantic record of 190mph, barring an eyewall replacement cycle.
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Yeah and/or interaction with Dominica. I know the island is tiny but it's about the size of Maria's core and the highest mountain is ~4700 feet high so that could interfere w/ the inner core and/or lead to a smaller-scale cyclonic deflection around the island...
 
144kt 500m mean wind on the drop in the NE eyewall.
Lowest, 134kt in the lower levels.
 
Yes with small systems land interaction of almost any size would distrupt/disturb the system.. But then, recovery can also be quicker.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah and/or interaction with Dominica. I know the island is tiny but it's about the size of Maria's core and the highest mountain is ~4700 feet high so that could interfere w/ the inner core and/or lead to a smaller-scale cyclonic deflection around the island...
Click to expand...
From the radar it already may be happening, it sure looks like it temporarily hung a left.
 
image.png
 
12z GEPS which often times have higher verification scores vs the gefs is safely OTS minus a few members
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah and/or interaction with Dominica. I know the island is tiny but it's about the size of Maria's core and the highest mountain is ~4700 feet high so that could interfere w/ the inner core and/or lead to a smaller-scale cyclonic deflection around the island...
Click to expand...

Yes, but there's a boiling lake on the island, and I think that will help intensify it.
 
Jackstraw said:
What is really scary about that sonde is the consistency of the extreme winds through all levels, thats freakin crazy.
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New sonde drop is stronger, 148kt mean - lowest 500mb, and 153kt in the lowest 200m!! Surface just got 143kt!!!
 
Yep the SE eyewall is stronger and now makes sense of the 152kt flagged reading. Whew!
 
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