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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

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Jose loses influence quick
 
This run is likely OTS but I'm not sure these runs really matter much when the pressures get initialized way off, that could be the difference between well OTS and a landfall.
 
My experience, especially this season, has shown me that even the Euro is struggling with storm intensity. Considering the evolution of Maria is highly dependant on what Jose does, we can't take any of these operational model runs to heart. With the ensemble suites showing a clear Northward movement, and Maria missing Hispaniola for the most part, I'm sticking with that idea currently.

Larry's research has shown that most, if not all, tropical cyclones head away from the United States when they have another tropical cyclone to their North.
 
Shawn said:
Larry's research has shown that most, if not all, tropical cyclones head away from the United States when they have another tropical cyclone to their North.
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Well, it's the year storms defy climo, so all logic can be defied. No storms up to Irma were cat 5 185 monsters near the Antilles, until Irma. However, if we see no Jose in a few days, that rule goes out the door anyway.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Well, it's the year storms defy climo, so all logic can be defied. No storms up to Irma were cat 5 185 monsters near the Antilles, until Irma. However, if we see no Jose in a few days, that rule goes out the door anyway.
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I brought it up in my previous post, because it looks like the majority of ensembles from the various models are having Jose play a factor in Maria's track. Not to say, that won't change.

Edit:
I'd like to see a more robust upper level low in the Southeast region to get Maria into here.
 
Well, next frame and no ERC chance now. Just more power to the eyewall. Meanwhile, T values continue to climb. 5.9 Adjusted, 7.3 raw. Clouds look really healthy at the moment.
 
Just by the eyes, I'm not sure how Jose is still being considered a hurricane. It may still have winds that are close but it really is not looking that good.
 
Raw t numbers keep on rising, they're now up to 7.4, which would make Maria a 155 knot (180 mph) category 5 hurricane. This recon mission will be very telling wrt its intensity. Not sure if it's that high, but these satellite estimates are going off the charts
 
It is entirely possible, with current conditions, that Maria could make a run at Hurricane Allen's 190 MPH maximum wind speed. Hurricane Allen holds the record, if I'm not mistaken, in the Atlantic.
 
Shawn said:
It is entirely possible, with current conditions, that Maria could make a run at Hurricane Allen's 190 MPH maximum wind speed. Hurricane Allen holds the record, if I'm not mistaken, in the Atlantic.
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Yes, Allen was 190 mph, so it's possible. I am sure the pressure is probably around 930mb right now or just above given the small eye maintaining itself.
 
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