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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Models starting to settle in on reality as we see more 2-4 type runs vs the crazy big runs . Of course there is the stupid CMC that went nuts but that's not realistic


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Much better run compared to the 12z for NC folks..... I wonder (maybe just wishful thinking) if the precip shield would be a little more expansive with that slp right off the coast, either way it upped the qpf and was ever so slightly north of the 12z.
 
Storm5 said:
Models starting to settle in on reality as we see more 2-4 type runs vs the crazy big runs . Of course there is the stupid CMC that went nuts but that's not realistic


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I'll ride Doc off the cliff one final time...


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I see the day time highs for Saturday keep getting colder each run also (again selfishly I'm speaking of up this way) but now GFS barely has me getting out of the 30's Sat, now I know it has a cold bias but that would be huge for accumulations (not that ground temps or sun angle matter or anything like that LOL)
 
whatalife said:
I'll ride Doc off the cliff one final time...


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I am on board the Euro train as well. Let's hope the GFS takes its course and in the end it is right with the more widespread snow situation. It seems to be GFS and NAM (more north) vs Euro, UKMET, NAVGEM, and CMC on the Gulf side. Who will win this time? I say Euro FTW!
 
metwannabe said:
I see the day time highs for Saturday keep getting colder each run also (again selfishly I'm speaking of up this way) but now GFS barely has me getting out of the 30's Sat, now I know it has a cold bias but that would be huge for accumulations (not that ground temps or sun angle matter or anything like that LOL)
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Of course not ... ;)
 
Seeing some snow fly is way too close to my area. The way it's trended south over the past few days has me on edge lol. Fingers crossed that I see some snow flying around come this weekend.
 
metwannabe said:
Much better run compared to the 12z for NC folks..... I wonder (maybe just wishful thinking) if the precip shield would be a little more expansive with that slp right off the coast, either way it upped the qpf and was ever so slightly north of the 12z.
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If the gfs verified our snow would probably be melted by evening :(

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I'm a little late as I was in a bit of a rush but I see the EPS tried to excite me by there being some members that throw snow back into my area ohhhhhh it's lit.

I still don't expect there to be any snow here. Perhaps folks that are in North Georgia might get lucky and get to see token flakes though and boy would that be crazy. Winter looked dead and done just a few days ago, this has been quite a turn.
 
metwannabe said:
Much better run compared to the 12z for NC folks..... I wonder (maybe just wishful thinking) if the precip shield would be a little more expansive with that slp right off the coast, either way it upped the qpf and was ever so slightly north of the 12z.
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Yeah models usually underestimate the northern extent and intensity of precipitation during overrunning/isentropic ascent. That will likely be the case here, esp on the GFS.
 
SD said:
If the gfs verified our snow would probably be melted by evening :(

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If we get 4 inches of snow Sunday there will be some around of course according to Mike maze the ground is warm and the air is warm so this doesn't bode well for a big snow......

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I am surprised that my high Sunday hasn't dropped much despite all the models saying that I will be in the 40s all day. It is at 57 currently, but I feel that if they drop it they will have to explain why it isn't showing snow. :p
 
metwannabe said:
If we get 4 inches of snow Sunday there will be some around of course according to Mike maze the ground is warm and the air is warm so this doesn't bode well for a big snow......

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The weather channel show weather underground is getting ready to do a segment on how the sun angle effects snow totals. I know that this touches a nerve with some on here. Lol
 
metwannabe said:
If we get 4 inches of snow Sunday there will be some around of course according to Mike maze the ground is warm and the air is warm so this doesn't bode well for a big snow......

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air is warm? it won't be when it's snowing...did you mean air will be around freezing or even slightly above perhaps when it's snowing ?
 
Stormlover said:
air is warm? it won't be when it's snowing...did you mean air will be around freezing or even slightly above perhaps when it's snowing ?
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No I quoted a local TV met, he said the air will be warm..... can't make this stuff up

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