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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

SD said:
3ohzdUXI9xWpwYLLIk.gif
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Yep that's what I thought.......
 
I've searched every frickin model available and can't find one I like..... usually I can one to ride
SD said:
SREF plumes increased by .02 I think its the start of a trend
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Meh their pretty anemic up this way.....
My daughter is home for spring break, I think she needs to head back Sunday morning and I will follow her to make sure she gets there ok b/c if the NAM is to be believed while I get nothing Campbell University gets almost 3". Boom!
 
metwannabe said:
I've searched every frickin model available and can't find one I like..... usually I can one to ride

Meh their pretty anemic up this way.....
My daughter is home for spring break, I think she needs to head back Sunday morning and I will follow her to make sure she gets there ok b/c if the NAM is to be believed while I get nothing Campbell University gets almost 3". Boom!
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Nothing like the snow capital of Buies Creek lol
 
I finally decided to bite on the first wave and produced a preliminary probability, county-based map for NC for the monster storm this Mon/Tue. Not feeling so hot about where I put this 1-3" but I did my best lol
March 11-12 2017 NC Snowmap forecast.png

March 13-14 2017 NC Snow probabilities map.png
 
SD said:
Im still just blown away that we are going to have a system too suppressed/sheared system in mid March...maybe thats flawed logic on my part
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We had a really suppressed system in mid March 1960 but that was more understandable given the massive glacier that was sitting just to its north
March 11-12 1960 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I finally decided to bite on the first wave and produced a preliminary probability, county-based map for NC for the monster storm this Mon/Tue. Not feeling so hot about where I put this 1-3" but I did my best lol
View attachment 451

View attachment 452
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I think it's a great map, I don't like it b/c both miss me altogether, but it's a very realistic call no doubt...... oh well it is what it is
 
NAM becomming much more realistic. Looking at a little swatch of 0.5 - 1 inch VERY MOST across CAE. Don't let those maps fool ya. In line with the Euro.
 
Right on par to my above post, the new NAM soundings with cobb output confirm:

Code: 
170312/1700Z  65  03012KT  32.6F  SNPL    4:1| 0.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.098    4:1|  0.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.18   43| 50|  7
170312/1800Z  66  03011KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    4:1|  0.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.19   80|  0| 20

Mostly rain, ends as sleet/rainsnow. 0.4 total sn and 0.11 sleet.
 
whatalife, looks like the best we can do here in Lexington is get a HWO from NOAA that mentions sleet or snow mixing with the rain. no accumulation expected. Hell, they might just not even mention it.
 
Shawn said:
whatalife, looks like the best we can do here in Lexington is get a HWO from NOAA that mentions sleet or snow mixing with the rain. no accumulation expected. Hell, they might just not even mention it.
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I'll ride w/the Nam/Euro and see what happens (as if I didn't already know). LOL!


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