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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

This just got added to my forecast by FFC...

Monday Night
A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This just got added to my forecast by FFC...

Monday Night
A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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You are doing better than I o_O

Sunday
Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
 
The entire evolution of this system is just something crazy. Look at where it started, and now we may be looking at some token flakes. I would place more of a hope in this second system, if it happens, and doesn't go north.
 
I believe the dang GFS has truly just lost this thing and can't get a clue, seems GFS is far-sighted cause the Euro/Nam neither or that weak showing
 
Nws Nashville going less than an inch for most of its CWA
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ForsythSnow said:
The entire evolution of this system is just something crazy. Look at where it started, and now we may be looking at some token flakes. I would place more of a hope in this second system, if it happens, and doesn't go north.
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Don't put false hope in the second system it phases too late for the SE . I could see western North Carolina getting in if things go perfect but outside of there maybe a token flurry


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Pardon the lack of comprehension here; been doing the lawyer thing all day and have had but a minute here and a minute there to look at models - and no time to study and/or digest them; weren't there 3 possible systems, with the 3rd one possibly being the strongest of the three and not supposed to even get sampled until today and not arrive anywhere in the vicinity until late week? Or was that a dream I had last night? Is the moan about the short term (this weekend) or looking throughout next week?
 
pcbjr said:
Pardon the lack of comprehension here; been doing the lawyer thing all day and have had but a minute here and a minute there to look at models - and no time to study and/or digest them; weren't there 3 possible systems, with the 3rd one possibly being the strongest of the three and not supposed to even get sampled until today and not arrive anywhere in the vicinity until late week? Or was that a dream I had last night? Is the moan about the short term (this weekend) or looking throughout next week?
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Best chances for AL, GA, SC were the Sunday wave. The stronger system behind it could do something for Western NC. Anything else, meh.
 
Holy cow, the GFS is so weak with the first system it's basically token flakes even in the area that gets decent snow (due to it being March). South Carolina may see a token couple hours of snow here.
 
It's pretty crazy if you look at the 00z Gfs starting on Wednesday, and then look at each consecutive run after that and slowly watch as the system gets weaker and weaker. Really what's the point in looking at models if they can't even give you a realistic outlook anywhere near close to reality only 2 days out from the event. Of course this is just frustration setting in and I'll be just as big of a sucker when the next fantasy storm shows up.
 
Shawn said:
Best chances for AL, GA, SC were the Sunday wave. The stronger system behind it could do something for Western NC. Anything else, meh.
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Thanks. Man! You've narrowed my studying considerably - and after today, that is a much appreciated thing! :)

EDIT: ...and after this week ...
 
I still think TN/NC with first system does well with few in. Even if GFS sucks, I wouldn't totally discount the nam also.
 
accu35 said:
I still think TN/NC with first system does well with few in. Even if GFS sucks, I wouldn't totally discount the nam also.
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The NAM may not be right. That's the risk with it. I think in its later range, it strings out the precip too much. It did with the last serious threat. This really might just be token flakes...
 
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