Lol...in the sad but true category.
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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You know that's not how we roll, cold air turns the faucet off.... c'mon man how soon you forget. Lol
But it's different this time????
Judah Cohen threw in the towel.. I'm done too.
Judah has to be going crazy looking at the strong strat PV.
These guys are very smart and had a thread on NA weather extremes....not SSWE's as Cohen believes.
NoSnowATL
Member
We need some good news, I’m starting to get depressed. It’s been the longest non winter winter ever.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Our only hope is that the ridge slides north into Alaska, but at this point, I'm punting all but the last week of January other than the maybe flurries in a few days
Agree...good news has been difficult to come by the past few days. Only good news I can think of is we still have 8-10 weeks of winter left...time we can actually see a moderate snow/ice event. That's a long time.
Nerman
Member
So it's going to rain 5 out of the next 7 days and the only 2 cold shots during this time will be on the 2 days it's not raining. #thisisthesouth
Consider me not shocked. I think this PV stuff is overrated
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Tune in next year for the next revelation or new index that results in a paradigm shift as regards forecasting. And then the following year, look for still another paradigm shift. I figured @Rain Cold would appreciate this.
IMO it was a small sample size anyway... do we have analogs from 1700's winters or 1600's, 1500's, etc. I know I'm a simple minded wannabe but when you factor in that analogs can only be used for times that record were kept, isn't that relatively a small amount of time and a small sample size?
I think this is why you see so much blending and massaging going on. My opinion is that they can provide a very rough guide, most of the time. But there are so many factors that play along with or against each other. And our understanding of all of the drivers and their interactions is still very elementary. Plus, we probably don't have anywhere close to a complete list of things that impact the pattern. Way down the line somewhere, we will look back at this period and laugh at how bad we were at forecasting and about all the things we didn't know.
Agreed, an analog could match up almost perfectly on paper and produce very different results because of some undiscovered small caveat that has huge implications.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
This season reminds me of the old axiom “You can put lipstick on a pig but it’s still a pig.”
In the same way, there’s just seemingly no remedy in sight that can remove the swine stench from this cool season.
In the same way, there’s just seemingly no remedy in sight that can remove the swine stench from this cool season.
cd2play
Member
Anybody think the Titans have a chance vs the Patriots?
Rosie
Member
I so wish! Dolphins beat them?
tennessee storm
Member
I’m a big time patriot fan. True pat fan here... yes. Titans will beat patriots
Brent
Member
if there's anything I've learned these last few non-winters around here it's totally this
I hate this hobby.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This rain caught me off guard. Sigh, when I looked at the NWS forecast, I thought there'd be sprinkles at most today. The new rain event was much faster than forecast.
Gotta check that radar, yo!
I hear people saying the PV could split at the end of Jan but how long would it take for the deep south to feel the impacts ? Climo goes dramatically downhill after Feb 15 in the deep south so a PV split at the end of January is cutting it kind of close isnt it ?
I want to go home and sleep. My 2 y/o was up all night sick and I feel like I’ve been hit by a train
I’ll say it so someone else doesn’t have to; Some of our best snows happen in March
I remember one good snow after Feb 15 in Carrollton GA and that was in 1993. I was referring to the deep south not upstate SC
@Webberweather53 (I think) posted some stuff recently that indicated it could be pretty quick, if it was due to a tropical influence, rather than some kind of Wave 1 thing. I could be screwing up the terminology, but I think I have the idea correct.
The one thing to keep in mind is that we will have a lot of cold air in close proximity available to tap, as opposed to other times when we've had to wait, after the pattern has become more favorable, for the source region to be seeded with cold air. What this means is what it probably sounds like: When the pattern becomes able to tap what's up there in Canada and bring it down here, winter should get here fairly quickly.
i got almost 3 inches early March 2017
I didnt realize Columbia has had a snowfall that recent.
yea and had bout 5 inches from a ULL on Nov 1st a few years ago. (earliest snowfall on record).maybe someone else can remember what year that one was. maybe 2016?
Brent
Member
The last real snow here and one of the best snowstorms of my life was here on March 4th 2015 lol
Not that I'm expecting a repeat but all the snow that winter was after February 20th and that was the 4th storm in a series and also the biggest by a mile
NoSnowATL
Member
Just pouring rain, forecast busted today Mets. Had to be 6 stories up on a roof watching a emergency roof replacement today. Let’s just say it’s a cold rain and my rain coat isn’t rain proof like it was a few years ago.
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How do y'all mentally prepare for the Bleaklies each Mon and Thu? Any advice to your fellow members?
On a related note, I wish today's Bleaklies were based on 12Z instead of 0Z because the end of 12Z EPS looked significantly better than 0Z's end in the NE Pacific. So, if they turn out to have their typical bleakness, take solace in the fact that it was based on a worse EPS run than the latest. For those who don't know, tossing a run of the Bleaklies is an option is now officially offered by this BB! The powers here had to get the approval of the suits at ECMWF because tossing a King run was not something normally done for obvious reasons. So, "we toss" no longer applies only to the 18Z GFS/GEFS!
On a related note, I wish today's Bleaklies were based on 12Z instead of 0Z because the end of 12Z EPS looked significantly better than 0Z's end in the NE Pacific. So, if they turn out to have their typical bleakness, take solace in the fact that it was based on a worse EPS run than the latest. For those who don't know, tossing a run of the Bleaklies is an option is now officially offered by this BB! The powers here had to get the approval of the suits at ECMWF because tossing a King run was not something normally done for obvious reasons. So, "we toss" no longer applies only to the 18Z GFS/GEFS!
NoSnowATL
Member
I don’t pay too much attention to them anymore. Anything 10+ days out is always wrong. Heck we can’t even get the 24hr forecast right.
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
You know things are bad when it’s 6 pm and the last post in the main thread was at 430 ish. In other words, you know it’s bad when the happy hour GFS gets no posts.
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You wouldn't know per the constant whining and over-exaggeration from a handful of folks, who reside in this area, on this forum.
That was 2014 (November 1st). Only a dusting to an half inch in my backyard. But folks about 15-20 miles southwest of me lucked out with anywhere between 2"-4".
avlsnow
Member
This is just awful
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Other than the possible flurries or whatever is showing around 120, the rest is terrible.
It's nice to have a hobby where you have absolutely no control over the outcome.
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