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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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SETNwx said:
Judah Cohen threw in the towel.. I'm done too. :)
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Judah has to be going crazy looking at the strong strat PV.

These guys are very smart and had a thread on NA weather extremes....not SSWE's as Cohen believes.

 
NoSnowATL said:
We need some good news, I’m starting to get depressed. It’s been the longest non winter winter ever.


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Our only hope is that the ridge slides north into Alaska, but at this point, I'm punting all but the last week of January other than the maybe flurries in a few days
 
NoSnowATL said:
We need some good news, I’m starting to get depressed. It’s been the longest non winter winter ever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Agree...good news has been difficult to come by the past few days. Only good news I can think of is we still have 8-10 weeks of winter left...time we can actually see a moderate snow/ice event. That's a long time.
 
KyloG said:
Judah has to be going crazy looking at the strong strat PV.

These guys are very smart and had a thread on NA weather extremes....not SSWE's as Cohen believes.

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Tune in next year for the next revelation or new index that results in a paradigm shift as regards forecasting. And then the following year, look for still another paradigm shift. I figured @Rain Cold would appreciate this.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm not even sure analogs before 2010 are very good anymore. Either way, you're left with a very low sample size to choose from, which ends up skewing your result set.
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IMO it was a small sample size anyway... do we have analogs from 1700's winters or 1600's, 1500's, etc. I know I'm a simple minded wannabe but when you factor in that analogs can only be used for times that record were kept, isn't that relatively a small amount of time and a small sample size?
 
metwannabe said:
IMO it was a small sample size anyway... do we have analogs from 1700's winters or 1600's, 1500's, etc. I know I'm a simple minded wannabe but when you factor in that analogs can only be used for times that record were kept, isn't that relatively a small amount of time and a small sample size?
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I think this is why you see so much blending and massaging going on. My opinion is that they can provide a very rough guide, most of the time. But there are so many factors that play along with or against each other. And our understanding of all of the drivers and their interactions is still very elementary. Plus, we probably don't have anywhere close to a complete list of things that impact the pattern. Way down the line somewhere, we will look back at this period and laugh at how bad we were at forecasting and about all the things we didn't know.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think this is why you see so much blending and massaging going on. My opinion is that they can provide a very rough guide, most of the time. But there are so many factors that play along with or against each other. And our understanding of all of the drivers and their interactions is still very elementary. Plus, we probably don't have anywhere close to a complete list of things that impact the pattern. Way down the line somewhere, we will look back at this period and laugh at how bad we were at forecasting and about all the things we didn't know.
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Agreed, an analog could match up almost perfectly on paper and produce very different results because of some undiscovered small caveat that has huge implications.
 
This season reminds me of the old axiom “You can put lipstick on a pig but it’s still a pig.”

In the same way, there’s just seemingly no remedy in sight that can remove the swine stench from this cool season.
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed, an analog could match up almost perfectly on paper and produce very different results because of some undiscovered small caveat that has huge implications.
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if there's anything I've learned these last few non-winters around here it's totally this
 
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