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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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KyloG said:
I think it’s coming, I hope. The GEFS rushed things as usual. The key is getting the trough in the west coast to the south/aleutians and drive our +PNA/-EPO.

Failed EPO

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EPO build with trough retrogression
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I feel the -EPO is the real way we're going to get our good sustained cold if we're going to get it. That's been what we've depended on for the last several years. I just doubt there's going to be any sustained -NAO block with 50/50 low to get us cold and stay cold. If we do get it, I'd bet it's transient and temporary. We literally need to thaw Alaska with a nice -epo ridge for persistent cold imo. My concern is the gefs is playing into it's bias, we don't get a true -EPO pattern change and we're going in to a limited cold window in the 10 day that will come and go pretty quick.

Rooting for the gefs right now personally, but not getting my hopes up.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Nobody knows what any of this crap means. You ask 5 experts, you get 5 different opinions. And everyone will always have an answer if it doesn't work out the way they described.
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While yes this is sort of true .. weather is way more complex than many people really believe all explanations are usually correct there are many factors that go into weather forecasting and the atmosphere .. it’s a complex thing that every meteorologist deserves severe credit to be able to have a degree in learning the complexity’s of these features ... it’s not an easy 1+1=2 type of equation to solve to get one output ..
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I'm with you. I seriously doubt we'll be getting some great pattern. We'll always have to fight marginal temps and the nw trend regardless. Just how it is down here.
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They're will be a lot of battling marginal temps for many. But I do think a good pattern will set up eventually. I will just feel a lot better when things move in closer. Also, there is a lot of faulty ensemble analysis that happens every winter. That's really neither here nor there, I guess. Anyway, I think there will be at least one big SE storm this winter. I'm looking forward to it.
 
The pendulum has to swing back from one extreme to the other to even things out. 70s now, and snow before the end of the month. I am confident of it. Seen it happen here plenty of times, including in 2000 before the Carolina Crusher.
 
Rain Cold said:
They're will be a lot of battling marginal temps for many. But I do think a good pattern will set up eventually. I will just feel a lot better when things move in closer. Also, there is a lot of faulty ensemble analysis that happens every winter. That's really neither here nor there, I guess. Anyway, I think there will be at least one big SE storm this winter. I'm looking forward to it.
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And honestly marginal temps can and do usually bring the absolute paste bombs cause it usually means tons of moisture and a strong low pressure a company it
 
Delete your default weather app!
“The only job where you can be 50% right and keep your job” hear this all the time when dealing with customers at my job.
 
If and definitely when we do finally see snow again it’s going to have been so long I kind of forgot the true feeling of excitement and adrenaline of each stage of a snowstorm and the excitement of seeing the heavier bands on radar moving close and then seeing how it translates to looking outside ... truly cannot wait to fall in love with weather all over again because of it (I already do love it exponentially but nothing like a good snowstorm to re kindle the fire)
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
If and definitely when we do finally see snow again it’s going to have been so long I kind of forgot the true feeling of excitement and adrenaline of each stage of a snowstorm and the excitement of seeing the heavier bands on radar moving close and then seeing how it translates to looking outside ... truly cannot wait to fall in love with weather all over again because of it (I already do love it exponentially but nothing like a good snowstorm to re kindle the fire)
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damn...i really felt this lol. I'll be pretty bummed out if we're let down (again)
 
If I could just get 1 or 2 good snows a year let the rest of winter be +6 above normal, only reason I want the cold is to get the snow. Let it get cold twice a year for about 4-5 days, let it snow 3+ inches, stick around for a couple a day’s and I would be happy with winter.
 
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